As of this post, the last bit of rain is just now pushing through the Carolinas with areas back west already clearing out. There are still a few lingering showers in some spots but I expect a gradual drying solution throughout today. Highs for today should range in the 50s and for a part of this week before we warm up a bit. Not nearly as warm as we were for the past week with those 60s to around 70 but still pushing at least slightly above normal for some; others staying around seasonal. We should remain dry for most of the week but there could be a few showers for portions of the Southeast on Friday but not too concerned with that at the moment.
We're almost done with the first week of this month, and already the potential pattern change still looks like a possibility at some point. If such is to take place (and hopefully so), I would expect it to be sometime either during mid or maybe even the late period of the month. Of course, one should be aware that the further we go with this, the less time we have left to get in on something before winter is officially over but it's not impossible to get snow even going through late March but that takes a VERY lucky setup to get snow at that point, let alone accumulations. The latter portion of the previous week and throughout this new week will put a strain on how models handle the overall look of the northern hemispheric pattern so I expect some flip-flopping to continue for a while. Recently however, we seem to be noticing the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) forecasted to actually get a move on for once, which is set to go into Phase 8 (good if you like cold). No guarantees yet on this but it is encouraging to see such being depicted but the question remains as to whether or not we can get a strong signal into Phases 1 and 2 or does it die off before then. Also the possibility for the NAO to head into the negative territory has been popping up every now and then so that bears watching if we can just get the Greenland ridge established, especially since we finally have our AO in the negative phase and of course, the +PNA has continued to be advertised over the next several days but we still need to see to it that it develops and positions itself correctly for much of this month. I will continue to watch how it all unfolds but right now the full-blown change is only at the potential stage so nothing set in stone yet but the chance is better than it had been for December and January and if so, we may actually get in on much colder air; one that actually lasts longer instead of being a quick shot.
There have been signs of the next system, especially per the recent GFS and its ensemble mean, that we will get a gulf low that develops and tracks itself in a way that would be favorable for a nice winter storm event. The model has been showing this for quite a while but tonight's run has truly began to peak my interest, for it was quite a close call with something. However, temperatures are not quite cold enough as of now but the trend has recently been for this to inch itself closer and nearly mingle with the storm for the Southeast on some of the latest runs so we will see if we can continue that cold trend. To complicate matters, there is also potential that we can get some sort of phase going on (and we all know how difficult that already can be on modeling). Right now, my confidence is rather low on what plays out but if I had to side with something, I am leaning on just a plain rain event at the moment unless things change and we do end up seeing a better chance at something frozen. The Euro has flipped quite a few times on its part with temperature and has gotten to the point where it doesn't have the storm as of its 0z but has attempted to push colder air into the Southeast so it's a battle between it and the GFS. We need to see that cold build in more quickly and deeper before the system gets its act together if we want to see anything frozen with this one but right now I really can't say how good our chances are with this. The good news is that this is within a week instead of around 10 days or more out so we have that on our side but that means room for improvement will decrease the closer we get and in that case, we would like to see the colder trend pull through over the next 2 or 3 days. Course, this also means that we still need to have our system take a good track instead of staying too far south or weaken/die off. Can't say I'm too optimistic with this but we can only wait and see what models have to say about this once we get through most of this week. Could be rain, could be a nice wintry hit, could be just dry. Who knows? We're all playing the Guessing Game here...
Take care everyone and stay safe.
We're almost done with the first week of this month, and already the potential pattern change still looks like a possibility at some point. If such is to take place (and hopefully so), I would expect it to be sometime either during mid or maybe even the late period of the month. Of course, one should be aware that the further we go with this, the less time we have left to get in on something before winter is officially over but it's not impossible to get snow even going through late March but that takes a VERY lucky setup to get snow at that point, let alone accumulations. The latter portion of the previous week and throughout this new week will put a strain on how models handle the overall look of the northern hemispheric pattern so I expect some flip-flopping to continue for a while. Recently however, we seem to be noticing the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) forecasted to actually get a move on for once, which is set to go into Phase 8 (good if you like cold). No guarantees yet on this but it is encouraging to see such being depicted but the question remains as to whether or not we can get a strong signal into Phases 1 and 2 or does it die off before then. Also the possibility for the NAO to head into the negative territory has been popping up every now and then so that bears watching if we can just get the Greenland ridge established, especially since we finally have our AO in the negative phase and of course, the +PNA has continued to be advertised over the next several days but we still need to see to it that it develops and positions itself correctly for much of this month. I will continue to watch how it all unfolds but right now the full-blown change is only at the potential stage so nothing set in stone yet but the chance is better than it had been for December and January and if so, we may actually get in on much colder air; one that actually lasts longer instead of being a quick shot.
There have been signs of the next system, especially per the recent GFS and its ensemble mean, that we will get a gulf low that develops and tracks itself in a way that would be favorable for a nice winter storm event. The model has been showing this for quite a while but tonight's run has truly began to peak my interest, for it was quite a close call with something. However, temperatures are not quite cold enough as of now but the trend has recently been for this to inch itself closer and nearly mingle with the storm for the Southeast on some of the latest runs so we will see if we can continue that cold trend. To complicate matters, there is also potential that we can get some sort of phase going on (and we all know how difficult that already can be on modeling). Right now, my confidence is rather low on what plays out but if I had to side with something, I am leaning on just a plain rain event at the moment unless things change and we do end up seeing a better chance at something frozen. The Euro has flipped quite a few times on its part with temperature and has gotten to the point where it doesn't have the storm as of its 0z but has attempted to push colder air into the Southeast so it's a battle between it and the GFS. We need to see that cold build in more quickly and deeper before the system gets its act together if we want to see anything frozen with this one but right now I really can't say how good our chances are with this. The good news is that this is within a week instead of around 10 days or more out so we have that on our side but that means room for improvement will decrease the closer we get and in that case, we would like to see the colder trend pull through over the next 2 or 3 days. Course, this also means that we still need to have our system take a good track instead of staying too far south or weaken/die off. Can't say I'm too optimistic with this but we can only wait and see what models have to say about this once we get through most of this week. Could be rain, could be a nice wintry hit, could be just dry. Who knows? We're all playing the Guessing Game here...
Take care everyone and stay safe.
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