Wedge Wins Out for Those In NC for the Past Two Days. Update on the Potential Storm

Well I must admit despite how things appeared to be for our highs, it looks like if you happen to live in the wedge that set up, you are likely one of those folks who are struggling to get out of the 40s or maybe just barely passed 50 for highs today.  Yesterday was a similar story but there was quite a tight gradient in temperatures across the Carolinas.  Where it was in the 40s and 50s up north as you head further south temperatures were substantially warmer (someone reported reaching 80 for a high down along the SC coast)!  What a difference.  Clouds hang tough for a while longer, though some of us are already clearing out and we even managed to see some light showers/sprinkles occur across SC.

Regarding the upcoming weekend threat, it's still up in the air where we go with this.  Modeling has been coming up with different solutions; some trending drier but colder, some going with a rainy look (which is still my thinking unless this system ultimately gets suppressed), or if it's anything like the NOGAPS (Navy) model, the wintry hit but GFS has backed off from that since its 0z.  All of this appears to be highly dependent on how good our phase goes.  I made note of this yesterday about how it needs to occur and do so correctly in order to pull off a wintry hit here.  Otherwise, we get nothing interesting and will be forced to look on ahead to anything else that may hold some potential.  Here's what I mean.  Look at the 500mb chart below.  You will see 3 pieces of energy that's available.

18z NAM:

This needs to occur in a way that the system will become much stronger and will take a favorable track (GoM  right up along the East Coast) with cold enough air in play.  Also notice that this would be showing a potential Triple Phase which are VERY RARE and when such a process becomes successful it can produce quite a major system.  The March Superstorm of 1993 is a classic example of a Triple Phase scenario but I'm in NO WAY saying this is what will happen since odds are heavily stacked against seeing something like that again so soon but regardless, it's still interesting to note that this is showing up.  The more likely phase potential would include the bottom two and not the one that's far north at the moment.  Like I stated earlier, there is much colder air that looks to come down for a while, which most modeling seems to agree on but with the northern stream being so dominant, the system can't pull further north.  Now I suppose that the GFS could be playing its typical bias by having systems too far south due to being too strong with the northern stream but that is just wishful thinking on my part, as this go around could be an exception.  As with all phasing potentials, timing and location will be very difficult for modeling especially when you take into account the current behavior of the pattern so much will likely change over and over again for a few days on all the specifics.  We probably won't get a better handle on this until around Thursday I would assume but not holding my breath for it just yet.  Just keep watching and if anything changes (good or bad) I will update again.