Wednesday, February 29, 2012

More Severe Weather Potential for Later Today. Substantial Warmth in Temperatures Before Cooling Off Next Week With Perhaps Maybe Round 3 for the Weekend.


Once more, we appear to come across a scenario regarding more potential for the development of severe weather across the Southeast.  Latest data suggests that the ULL will cut across the OH/TN Valleys, setting the stage for areas further south with the approaching cold front.  Temperatures should warm into the 60s and 70s for highs with some indication of instability and moist airflow, which according to the most recent run of the NAM shows low to mid 60 dewpoint readings.  There will also be a LLJ (low level jet) that sets up, which will aid in bringing another scenario similar to the previous event with the strong winds in place and of course the possibility for hail could occur as well. Winds will once more be the primary threat above all else.  I'd look for the best activity to be for later portion of today, though there may be a few thunderstorms during the mid-late afternoon before the front pushes through.

After the system clears out, much warmer air will be in place for tomorrow with highs reaching the mid-upper 70s, and can't rule out maybe a few 80 degree readings somewhere in the region.  There may be some showers or even a few storms that threaten certain areas given the progged behavior of the front by modeling (which shows it going back north some) but other locations should remain dry and will allow those folks to get out and take good advantage of that.  Afterwards, Friday and Saturday appear to feature yet another round of showers and thunderstorms with temperatures backing down toward the upper 60s to around 70 (50s to low 60s further west) until Sunday.  At that point, the second cold front will have pushed through and temperatures will fall into the 50s to low 60s for highs for the rest of the Southeast with Monday being the coolest day but should gradually warm back up again for the latter part of the week.

Regarding that second front, setup for that particular threat looks similar to today's event but with an enhanced risks of a few tornadoes given the progged strong shear and instability in play so we'll see if that continues to be a concern down the road.

Have a good day.


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