Sunday, January 29, 2012

January Winding Down. More Warmth with Showers Later in the Week and Turning Cooler. February Miracle Potentially on the Way...

It's been warm for a few days as highs pushed from the upper 50s and throughout the 60s (for most that is). Some have even flirted/barely passed the 70 degree mark for the folks further south.  Unreal for late January. Definitely has not felt winter-like around here but at least, as expected, we dried out after seeing consistent rounds of rain and even some thunderstorms thrown into the mix.  Things look to remain dry for the first half of this week before we get into more rounds of rain during the second half starting sometime during Wednesday and into Saturday but only a chance at best so nothing completely certain but there could be showers here and there for some.  Temperatures look as if they will continue to be in the range that we have seen them stay in for much of this week before cooling off for the weekend.

Medium-long range has remained quite interesting with our pattern.  There has been agreement that at some point during early February we will begin to build a nice +PNA (western ridging) that extends throughout Western Canada.  During this time, we also see the AK vortex FINALLY get booted (one of the main culprits behind our terrible pattern) and with that said this will set the stage for what could be a pattern that features a longer-lasting cold scenario and possibly be able to track our first real winter threat for the Southeast.  Tonight's Euro, for example, showed what I am talking about and develops a trough across the East but this run came very close to showing a decent winter storm for some across the Southeast, though it actually prints out snow for areas such as the Carolinas but it's quite light so not much but still interesting to note.  The point in all this is that the pattern change is looking more and more likely to occur and for once we are not simply losing the solution in a matter of 2 days, as it has been a fairly consistent one over the past few days now.  There is still a great deal of uncertainty as to whether or not this materializes but if it were to do so then we could be heading into a fun month and possibly beyond through a part of March assuming that it is not a transient change.  We shall see...

Monday, January 23, 2012

Temperatures Seemingly Trending Warm for a While with Chances for Showers/Storms Through the Week. My Thinking for the Rest of Winter.

Back in the saddle again after much work and will be able to update again.  I apologize for not being so active for the past week.

Severe weather continues to be an absolute menace to our friends back west across MS, parts of TN and AL as a strong cold front pushes eastward carrying with it continuous threats for strong/severe thunderstorms with a few embedded tornadoes.  Looking at some of the hodographs earlier, they were very scary looking and would suggest significant shear to aid in the spin ups.  Despite it being the late night/early morning period, the line still holds strong and will threaten areas further east later on.  Hopefully anyone over there has been keeping an eye on it.

Severe threat should diminish some as it gets closer to the Carolinas and GA, though I won't rule out that a few of any of the storms that do develop could get a bit of an attitude.  The latest from SPC issued a slight risk for portions of AL and GA up to around the Southern Apps, which fits my idea of where the best area of storms could set up. Greatest threat appears to be strong gusty winds with any storm so we will need to watch that for some folks.  There may be an isolated tornado or two to watch but I don't think anything like what is currently going on will be the case thankfully, as the trend has been to weaken the storms to a less aggressive level as it stands now.

From the looks of things throughout this week, there appears to be plenty of shower and storm chances to go around for much of us but ranges from about 40% to 70% so not everyone may get in on the rain.  Not looking at a major washout nearly everyday for everyone but it could remain damp if the showers and storms materialize as indicated.  We may be able to squeeze in at least two dry days though before we get through the rest of this week.  As far as temperatures go, it appears that they may (keyword "may") finally get onto the warm side with a general range of upper 50s to even upper 60s at some point but I do think that we only stay like this for a while before cooling off again as we close out the month and get into February.  Looking back at the previous runs of the modeling for the last few days of the previous week into the early part of this week, highs were advertised to be much warmer than what actually verified.  In fact, for my area, I have went 5 days in a row below what was forecasted with 40s being the readings and yesterday getting stuck in the mid-upper 30s thanks to a CAD that settled into place.  Just goes to show how influential those setups can be on our temperatures despite what you hear from the local mets or even from your NWS office in some instances.  With clouds and rain consistently in place, it prevented the warmth but that now looks to finally rear its head into view for this week.  We'll see how warm we really get with our highs but that is how it appears judging by the data.  Of course, I am not solely forecasting from just the modeling, as it has been said many times that nothing is set in stone with them and that there are other things that can just as easily influence our temperatures so we may see cooler readings than expected.

Also, if you have not seen my post on Americanwx yet, I will repost on here about my thoughts on how things could turn out for the rest of the season:

"I think I speak for mostly everyone when I say that honestly it's anything goes at this point. Modeling can only handle but so much of the pattern and for it to further complicate them based on its behavior and evolution makes matters worse, such as the flip-flopping that we continuously see in the medium to long range. Nature will do what it will do and no amount of wishing or hoping can change that. If the pattern turns for the better once we begin closing this month and get through the first bit of February; great. This means that all that we would have to worry about at that point are whether or not we get a storm system that times/tracks itself correctly to mingle with the cold and potentially produce nicely for some folks across the Southeast. If not and we still end up dealing with the stubbornness of this by the mid-late period of next month well that is just something we can't do anything about and would have to settle for it. I still like the idea of us getting into at least one major storm, likely in a scenario in which the pattern shifts into a more favorable setup for such (if we get can get it that is) and allow a widespread "major" snowstorm or wintry mix of some sort, though I hope that doesn't include a good bit of ice should it occur. I also would like to think that this pattern will break at some point before we get too far throughout the first quarter of the year but when that happens (if it does) remains in question. The point is, until we get rid of that pesky AK vortex and get the overall look of the Pacific and Atlantic to appear more promising (even something somewhat decent would be nice if nothing else), I would remain cautiously optimistic for the most part. Also, if you think about it (and this is going by calendrical standards of a winter season), it has been officially one month since winter started so we still technically have plenty of time. After all, history will tell you that even with a horrible Dec./Jan., it only takes a storm or two during Feb./Mar. to make an "epic" winter for the Southeast. We can only continue to have more patience from here on out and hopefully this pattern pulls a 180 in the latter."

Can't say it any better than that.  It is what it is and we will just have to wait and see if we can pull off a February/March miracle here.  There is always that outside chance...

Take care everyone and please be safe if you are one of the ones who were or about to be affected by the storms.  Always remain on the safe side of things when dealing with potential threats for a tornado.  Don't take chances and assume things in these sort of situations.  Not good in the latter if you do end up with something nasty in your area. 

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Jan. 14th Clipper Snow Totals. Rain Looking Likely for Monday/Tuesday. Where's Winter???

Here is yet another set of totals that I've seen from people who were able to get in on the clipper from last night.

Asheville, NC: 0.5"
Boone, NC: Around 2"
Haywood County, NC: 2"
Red Hill, NC: 2"
Yancey County, NC: 3"
Beech Mountain: 6.5"

Cold front will swing in for the early portion of this week, setting up the stage for plenty of shower action across the Southeast.  Ranges anywhere from an isolated to a good chance that it falls for some areas (30%-70%).  Should be out of here as Tuesday night progresses, and we get back into dry conditions once more with temperatures just a bit above normal for our highs.

Medium to long range has not looked good in the past few days.  In fact, given what most has shown, we may be talking about flirting and/or breaking records across our region with 60s and 70s for highs as a strong ridge is progged to build over us, keeping the cold air well at bay far north.  However, during this time, there is a chance for some good dumping of rain as a system is forecasted to cut-off to our west and progress eastward with potentially some nasty severe weather thrown into the mix but will not go into specifics on that just yet since this is way out there.  This period appears that it will begin by next weekend and last through most of the remaining days of this month.  Unless we turn downright cold and stormy for February and early March, I'm afraid that this winter will end on the warm side with average to much below average snowfall for most of us.  Of course, given my recent posts, the mountain folks are at least getting the white stuff, and that goes for a few of you who managed to see snow with the cut-offs from last year during the last few days of November and again during early December but nothing that would be considered a widespread major winter storm.  You may (or may not) have seen my post on Americanwx but I did mention how I was beginning to think that I should have changed my forecast to where I have us at or slightly above average in temperatures but eh what can you do.  Seasonal forecasting is extremely difficult especially in an amped pattern with several pieces of energy flying around.  There is no "persistance" regarding troughing/ridging in one spot for several weeks at a time and so this makes things fluctuate consistently with cold shots and warm ups with rain and upper-level systems swinging through.  It's a lot to handle for the models and thus things drastically change on a day to day basis regarding seeing fantasy winter storms or major flooding rains 10 days out.  Nevertheless, winter seems to be taking a vacation soon and who knows when (or if) it comes back for next month.  We'll see how it plays out.  Maybe we can pull off a 180 compared to the previous winter where it was cold the first half of February and then flipped the switch from Winter to Spring.

Have a good day everyone.


Friday, January 13, 2012

Update on Clipper System with Totals. Another to Dive In For Saturday/Sunday. Maybe a Few Flurries East of the Apps...?

Here are the totals that I've seen from this event.  There are a couple of areas that are still receiving a bit of snow as of this post:

Boone, NC: 3.0"
Beech Mountain, NC: 4.0"
Franklin, NC: Dusting
Haywood County, NC: Dusting
Unicoi, TN: 2.2"
Cullowhee, NC: Dusting
Leconte Lodge, TN: 4.0"

By the way, looking over at the WRF, it is showing yet another possible clipper for tomorrow, but this one may actually get some moisture on the east side of the Apps for early Sunday.  Will it?  Doubt the chance but you can never be too sure of these systems. Sometimes they are able to throw a curveball down the road, which can make or break for more folks to be able to see some flakes.  We'll see...




Clipper Event Winding Down. Strong Gusty Winds for the Overnight and Getting Chilly Friday.

Tonight's clipper proved to put down more than I expected, with some folks across northern AL and GA reporting a good bit of flakage so congrats to them. As you would believe, the NC mountains got in on some nice snowflakes as well but for anyone east of the Apps, that chance was diminshed a good bit as the drier airflow on the other side prevented anything that tried to come down on the other side, especially since it is notoriously known that the Apps "eat up" the precipitation.

Winds tonight seem to be quite nasty out there. Latest Wind Advisory information suggested winds could actually peak at 50 mph for some during the overnight (already a 35 mph peak gust here in Gastonia) so they may strengthen more it seems. Quite impressive but these winds should gradually diminsh as we progress through the early portion of Friday. Hopefully you had your loose objects secured or put away before the winds swept in, as I'm sure that if you are like me the trash can may have been knocked over or blown down the road...

Friday will be chilly as forecasted with highs still looking like it will be in the 40s and down into the 20s for lows but we will slowly moderate afterwards toward the 50s as we get into next week.. Not out of the question that parts of TN will be stuck in the 30s for highs so it will be quite a cold one for that day. We'll see how low we can go. Next chance of rain afterwards appears to be sometime around the Monday/Tuesday timeframe for much of the region.

I will post an update tomorrow on any reports of the clipper event posted on the forum for recording purposes. Until then, later folks.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

One Last Warm Day Before the Chill. Maybe Clipper Snow for Some Thursday Night/Early Friday? Major Changes to Modeling on the Pattern but Will It Last???

Yesterday was quite interesting regarding the storms that fired off during the afternoon and early evening.  If you happened to live across the Carolinas toward the western half and portions of north GA and southern TN, we had strong and isolated severe storms that developed with hail and winds (as anticipated).  Of course, we also had the one that formed in Spartanburg county and that quickly became a tornadic cell that eventually made several areas northeast of it be put underneath a tornado warning and on up into a portion of Ellenboro, NC.  Reports of certain structures collapsed, several trees down, and a few injuries came in as that storm raced through the Hickory area after departing from Forest City.  I will admit I only anticipated that with any rotating storm that the potential existed for a brief quick spin up of a tornado but this one proved to be more dangerous than forecasted.  Then again, you can never be fully confident on how strong these tornadoes can get once they get going since there are a lot that is in play, and today provided a nice example.  It was all about elevated convection with the low-topped thunderstorms that include strong upper-level dynamics and so despite surface temperatures being relatively cool, the strong/severe threat still kicked in.  Even folks in the mid 40s saw some rough storm action up toward the mountain communities (Wilkes county, NC was one of them).  Now I will also admit that this wasn't as big of a deal as I had feared earlier but it did not put a stop to some folks seeing around quarter-inch hail and winds greater than 60 mph, which by the way the cluster that contained the tornadic cell became a mini-bowing line with 70 mph peak wind gust.  Terrible stuff.  This is suppose to be January, correct?

This radar image was taken right around the time that the tornado warning was placed: 

Here's a shot of it when it was within the vicinity of Ellenboro:



That made headline news for the evening as several storm spotters/chasers went out to investigate this storm.  Lots of coverage went on with this cell as it continued on its course with the couplet holding strong for quite a while; longer than I imagined.  Scary stuff indeed with this storm and it even went out of its way to cause some people to be trapped in their own homes.  Bad way to start off 2012...

The ULL responsible for this action today will continue to trek away from our region but because it has stayed more on an easterly track before heading up the Apps than what modeling suggested and with the front pushing through the Carolinas, gusty winds look to be the conditions for the overnight hours for some and it appears to continue through the day Thursday.  Interesting to note that recent short-range modeling suggesting, perhaps, some flurries could be possible across the Upper portion of the Southeast during the nighttime hours Thursday into early Friday morning with the next incoming shortwave.  Nothing significant but there may be some flakes flying in spots but it will be hard-pressed to get anything east of the Apps.  However, there have been instances where moisture, under the right kind of flow, is available on the other side and puts downs quite a bit of flakes, enough for even an inch or two (ala Dec. 4-5 2010 event) but not betting on a scenario like that for now.  It would be in, out, and gone just like any other clipper (hence their name) for the NC folks.

The model madness continues with tonight's runs of both the GFS and Euro showing much different solutions than what has been showing consistently.  For the GFS, it had quite a warm look for much of the U.S. with no real troughing or ridging (zonal flow) but it has now decided to, once more, flip flop back to a colder look despite a few warm days thrown into the mix and teasing us with a system around Day 6 but it stays suppressed.  Meanwhile the Euro about a week from now wants to develop a nice -NAO with much warming over Greenland, which is very good news but it does not have the Alaskan block in a good spot (ridging is further west as opposed to being over AK) so the cold air never really dives south and east and instead stays mostly in Western Canada with the vortex.  I think there is plenty of room for improvement in the long run but it also leaves room for this to quickly disappear so don't get excited yet but these were good runs for tonight.  We'll see if it continues and it proves my point: Living and dying by models won't get you anywhere except down a path of frustration.  They are merely tools used to aid in forecasting, not the be-all, end-all.  It is after all called Meteorology, not "Modelology."  Can't stress that enough.

Take care all and keep the hope alive.  We are bound to get something out of this season sometime sooner or later as it stands now.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Possible Active Day Setting Up. Still Looks Chilly Through the Weekend. Model Flip-Flop Continues About What May Happen Next Week.

It was yet another cool and cloudy day for some across the Southeast yesterday while others got in on the rain with some thunderstorms thrown into the mix.  A few of those got a bit of an attitude back across parts of the Gulf Coast states (even now there are still some over there dropping a bit of small hail and producing brief gusty winds).  I expect that to be today's story as that system continues to march on, bringing that slug of moisture and storminess for the folks further east across much of GA and the Carolinas for today.  For now, we have scattered showers spreading over parts of the Carolinas and GA for the early morning period. 

It still does not, however, completely eliminate the threat for any of those storms to become quite strong or severe over toward the areas I mentioned.  As of latest analysis, the shear still looks strong with the current line that's in place along the attending cold front and as it heads due northeast, these storms are capable of producing more strong gusty winds and of course this includes the chance for a quick spin up of a weak tornado given rotation potential with any of these storms.  Take note that because of the timing of which this line in particular arrives and pushes in, chances of anything severe are kind of low but don't be surprised if you are underneath one of the nastier ones.

There is, unfortunately, another round that may come into play as the low itself pushes closer to the Carolina region and given the upper dynamics in play, this line could also be dangerous with possibly better chances for hail and strong winds taking into account of the track of the system itself and so this would be more for those generally anywhere across the western section of the Carolinas, northern GA and eastern TN later in the day since they will be within the dynamics but I will go ahead and say places just due east need to keep a watch on this too just in case.  It should be noted that with that batch of precipitation, rainfall will be quite heavy and for the folks across the NC Apps, flooding may be possible so keep an eye out on the creeks and streams up there. Currently there are areal flood watches issued for the mountain locations.  I will explain it in the next section.

Going over specifics of this setup, we have indication of strong upper divergence of the jet with rising air due to low level WAA (warm air advection) and of course with given the track of that system and its flow, there will also be air that gets forced up the eastern slopes (or SE upslope flow), which is responsible for those watches being issued for the heavy downpours that could occur.  Alongside all of this, we need to watch throughout the day how the parameters shape up as the system gets closer.  Instability is questionable since we have some data saying that there may be more available while others keep it in check and only provides little support from it but I'd take a blend of the two and say that it will be just enough to give a bit of hand to the storms.  Shear remains strong it appears with the low-level jet that looks to set up shop over the piedmont locations of NC/SC, which supports the strong wind idea.  We will see how bad it gets but right now anyone's game for this, even way out into the eastern areas of the Carolinas despite being further away from the system.



Behind that system and the cold front, drier air will invade and clear out things completely throughout the day tomorrow but much chillier air will spill in with it and it's still looking like some areas could stay in the 40s for highs over the course of the weekend after that air settles in.  Winds will kick up a bit as that front swings through during the nighttime hours tomorrow and into Friday.  We get in one more warm day during Thursday so make use of it if you don't enjoy staying out in the chilly air.

Now then, as for what may lie ahead for next week, modeling still doesn't have a clue about what may (or may not) happen during that time.  Latest run from the GFS, which completely erased the snowy hit that was suggested a few runs back a few days ago, now says that we have a minor CAD event shaping up with cold air that manages to makes it way down toward the Carolinas and precipitation spreading over it (albeit light). This has the appearance of the formation of a bit of snow but it also throws in freezing rain in the mix. Nothing major but a tad interesting to note from this run.  We'll see if that continues (odds as of now are not due to the flip-flopping of this cursed model) but who knows.  On and it off it seems to be with the 14th-18th period ever since New Years.  There was a lot of cliff diving after we lost the snowy hit but keep in mind: NOTHING IS CERTAIN.  Meteorology will always feature that when dealing with unpredictable systems, especially those that develop during winter and even moreso when it involves the Southeast but alas that's our luck.  Just have to keep watch on anything is all I can really tell you.  This can either become a surprise event or nothing at all. Simple as that.

Well that should do it for tonight.  Hopefully the severe threat doesn't grow too much but hey if you are a believer of that old wives tale (thunder in winter; snow 7-10 days later), you may be rooting for it haha.  I'll admit my guilt with that for I believe in it as well, though there has been proof that the relation does exist, albeit it's 70% of the time so it is not always guaranteed (don't hold me to that percentage by the way). Anyway, thanks for reading and take care.

By the way, if you have not noticed it yet, I have included TWC's radar onto my blog.  They show the different precipitation types unlike the previous radar and looks neater IMO.  A tad huge but works nicely nonetheless especially now that I fixed it to display correctly on here.  That will make for easily tracking something while you happen to be visiting my blog.    

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Wet Weather Shaping Up for Early This Week Then Getting Chillier. Rest of January Continues to Look Good.

It has certainly been out of touch with January as temperatures yesterday were quite warm; an unbelievable 70 for a high during mid-winter in some spots.  Who would have thought we would be seeing highs like that when, climatologically speaking, it should be the coldest part of the winter (let alone the whole year)?  We even managed to have some folks get in on some thunderstorm action, some of which were conducive for small hail and plenty of lightning. This would be more of what I expect toward the Spring and Summer months but eh it's the Southeast.  Such is to be expected when dealing with plenty of warmth and a disturbance that produces such activity.  For the latter part of today, I suspect another chance of rain as the cold front drapes and stalls around the NC/SC border with yet another disturbance to traverse through the region with a chance for more showers and a few thunderstorms if just enough instability is present during the afternoon.

Temperatures will remain in a range from the 50s to around 70 for the early part of this week as we have yet another system to watch, which will bring more rain for much of our region.  We can't rule out, however, that given the predicted features of the atmosphere by the modeling we may have to contend with a bit of storminess, some of which could result on the strong, perhaps severe side of things.  This may need to be watched carefully for we will be dealing with a nice healthy cut-off involving strong upper-level dynamics, a rich 700mb moist look, and good low-level warm flow.  Best bet would be strong winds, lightning, and perhaps some hail (similar to yesterday's storms except a tad stronger).  There is some indication that given the strong indication of shear a few of the cells could rotate and spin up a weak brief tornado.  Definitely does not look or sound anything like winter around here but that is what appears to be the case for the Wednesday timeframe.  This system will push out of here for the second portion of the week as a cold front will drop across the Southeast. Consequently, this is going to make things a lot chillier as highs could get knocked back into the 40s for some from Thursday to at least the weekend with 50s elsewhere.  In fact, some places such as Nashville may not break 40 assuming the air mass is strong enough but for now will go for at least low 40s for the TN folks.

We turn our attention toward the longer range from the last portion of the upcoming weekend and beyond. Guidance is still suggesting a pattern change of some sort for the Southeast during the mid-month period as they have suggested at least a good bit of ridging in the West, allowing troughing to set up shop over the East. Meanwhile, we appear to see a blocking scenario that develops in Alaska with ridging and displacing that pesky vortex further south while another area of interest (Greenland) will also appear to have ridging somewhere in the vicinity.  The two combined will act as mechanisms to push the colder air from the far north (way up there in Northern Canada) much further south and with so many systems to still watch while this is happening, it would likely suggest our first real potential LEGIT threat for something wintry somewhere down the road.  The motion of those shortwaves, timing on both their part and the cold air, when, where, and how the flow behaves, etc. all remain in question.  We may get one big event with a well-placed and strong cut-off or maybe a surface feature tracks correctly with the cold air already in place or rushing behind it right quick for a rain to snow scenario or we end up busting on the bad side (be it cold and dry, slightly warmer than advertised, etc.). The blocking that models such as the GFS showed on its 0z run is a good example of a fantastic setup for the Southeast and with a more southerly storm track and plenty of cold air, one can only assume that one of the systems will produce nicely.  For the upcoming weekend, there is yet another system that may be the first real winter threat should everything move in correctly (though it never quite makes it but oh so close).  We can't be sure if we see things pan out in our favor with that one (could easily poof) but the further we push on through this month, the more likely it becomes that cold and snow will be realized for the Southeast.  My only concern with all of this is the waiting portion and as with such patience, you have to expect the continuation of waffling on the models whether they move one or more particular features into an unfavorable spot, lose it altogether, etc. so it still leaves room for error somewhere.  The good news is that this has been forecasted consistently and the longer it holds, the more likely that it should be taken into account, as well as getting closer to verification.  Should it all come together at the right time, I believe our patience will pay off VERY well.  Will it happen we just don't know but right now I like our chances and so winter isn't all gloom and doom just yet.  Just sit back, enjoy the ride, and keep watching to see if this potential continues to increase.


Sunday, January 1, 2012

A Warm Day Shaping Up Then Bitter Cold! Maybe Flurries for the Early Part of the Week. Potential Interesting Period Later On???

Well folks.  The madness of the weather that was 2011 is now a memory as we jump into January 2012. Yesterday felt pretty nice with low to mid 60s for highs across some locations in the Southeast.  Definitely not December-like and the first day of January will be the same, except I expect highs to push mid 60s to maybe 70. However, don't get used to that as it will be in, out, and gone as a significant push of colder air invades the region.

This is going to make the air substantially colder by as much as 30 degrees during the day Tuesday compared to today's highs!  Highs may not get above freezing OUTSIDE the Apps even down into the Charlotte area in NC.  This reminds me of a time during the previous January where here in Gastonia the high only touched 32 despite full sunshine but this go around it may be somewhere in the upper 20s.  Factor in the winds associated with this, which will be quite gusty, and you have bone-chilling wind chill readings across the high country, making it feel much worse to be outside.  I mentioned in one of my previous posts that with the cold air bottled up so far north, when it arrives it will make itself known, and that is exactly what's going to pan out.  Do bundle up if you plan to head out that day.  We then slowly moderate as the weekend approaches as highs get back into the 50s again but that should not last for too long either as yet it looks like another cold shot moves in but don't expect it to be as strong as the one currently approaching us.

One thing I will mention is during the arrival of this airmass, there is a chance sometime during a part of Monday into early Tuesday that places east of the Apps could see some flurries.  Nothing significant but there could be flakes flying somewhere so don't be surprised if you happen to see some.  It looks to be short-lived though.  This will be thanks to 5H shortwave energy that crosses the area associated with the trough.  A nice surprise if it occurs.  We'll see.  To think earlier this was forecasted to be a decent winter storm, then nothing at all, and now possibly flurries and as you can see, this just proves that you can't focus on one particular model, even if it stays consistent with a solution more often than not.  Such is the life of model drama...

6z NAM 500mb Vorticity at 54 hr.:



Beyond the next weekend, if you were following the 0z runs of the GFS and Euro, we potentially have some interesting times ahead after the first week of January with the first threat around the 9th-10th and a VERY significant fantasy-style storm around the 18th.  That storm in particular shows +20 inch snow totals in the western sections of NC/SC but it's all the way at the end so it has a very slim chance of verifying but it goes back to what I also said earlier, which is that this winter holds potential for one major snowstorm during this month or the following two up to mid-March given the pattern.  The Euro at the end of its run shows a nice cut-off that develops in the Arklatex area during the same period as the first storm from the GFS so definitely looking interesting.  Right now, we need to get through this massive cold shot first before considering what the models try to depict afterwards.  I suspect lots of waffling but this month, so far, looks promising for more cold and better wintry chances.  Whether we get favorable blocking to develop or not remains but it would be a huge step if it happens.  Winter's not over yet folks.

0z 384 hr. Snow Total:
0z Euro 500mb 240 hr: