Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Update: Storm Threat Appears to Be Diminishing. Still Could Come Back. My Thoughts for January's Pattern...

Prospect does not look likely compared to yesterday per the latest runs of the 0zs.  We still have the trough, which is fantastic for those who like the feel of winter but most if not all of the modeling show no storm of any sort during the time that it is in place.  I still feel that this threat should not be ignored completely as it can still come right back either tomorrow or the day after but if this is still the case by the time the weekend arrives, we would have to cancel this one and move on to anything that may be in the long term.

January, as it stands now, looks better regarding colder temperatures from the looks of things but the question remains as to whether or not we can get activity of similar fashion for next month.  I like the idea of seeing a few systems make their way toward the Southeast during the month with one or two of those providing wintry precipitation of some sort.  However, this assumes that we have such to track and so if we slack off on the number of systems that would have had arrived, even with the colder pattern you would still be dry more often than not, save for possibly flurry action or a quick hit of snow showers somewhere.  I'm still thinking that there will be a major winter storm in the works sometime between now and through a part of February and with that storm someone is going to get buried but I cannot possibly say when, where it will happen, or how it will develop.  There is just too large of a degree of uncertainty to get into details of that but nonetheless, colder seems to be story here over the next couple of weeks at least. Hopefully it will stay as such and perhaps we will have a system or two watch as well.  Will update tonight if things are back in action for the predicted "event" next week...

0z Euro Still Advertises Cold But No Storm. A Fluke or the Beginning of a Trend?

Just thought I would do a quick late night update for those of you who missed the 0z runs.  The Euro held on to its deep trough solution but now has no storm to show.  However, that +PNA signature is still there and will allow the cold to settle into place for a while.  It's not a permanent pattern change but it is not a quick 1-2 day effect either so cold and dry would be the words for this scenario.  There is another piece of energy in the works according to the Euro that enters the Southeast but that does not look like anything to be concerned at the moment as it is sent OTS (out to sea).  The Canadian still shows a well-amped pattern in place at the end of its run so good news on that part.  Meanwhile the GFS took a good step in the right direction with less zonal flow but still did not show anything close to the 12z Euro as it digs the trough too late and has it east of where we would want it situated with a storm well offshore.  Other than that, the ridging was there in the West, which is a nice thing to see so at least it is attempting to depict something of similar fashion to the Euro.  The UKMET showed a frontal passage solution with a ridge out west but not as tall as we would like it.

Don't fret yet folks.  Unless this is the beginning of a new trend, the storm may show back up on the Euro and who knows the GFS may cave into the Euro at some point.  When you have a transition occurring with a particular pattern, sometimes you tend to get something that pops up in between and models simply cannot accurately pinpoint such, no matter how great their verification may be.  It will either be a roller coaster ride of showing/losing a storm, cold or no cold, etc.  However you want to think it, the madness is not over until we get closer to the predicted period of the potential event (Jan. 4-6).  More details to come later today after the 12z runs... 

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

A Windy Day. Pattern Looks to Flip Toward the Colder, Stormier Side. Potential Event for the First Week of January???

Afternoon everyone.  I am back after much activity with Christmas shenanigans and such.  I hope all of you had a wonderful holiday weekend and got what you wanted.  Unfortunately we could not get everyone to stay chilly and dry for Christmas Day with the rain that came through but hopefully at least some of you still took the initiative to head out to see family and friends.

Things look to remain seasonable in terms of temperatures, though there could be a slight warm up later this week with highs nearing the low 60s.  However, I expect things to remain dry for the most part with the exception of what may be another system of some sort toward Friday that could bring more showers but will only say a slight chance for that at this time (around 30%).  If you are heading out today though, you may not want to wear a hat as winds have been whipping up quite strong with gusts greater than 30 mph and some of you may have weak branches/trees or other loose objects that could get blown over so be aware of that.  With all the rain we have been getting recently, it would not surprise me if someone had a tree fall over due to the overly-saturated ground/wind combo.

As far as things look down the road, the period during the first week of January is really beginning to peak my interest as there seems to be some indication of a major change to the pattern going from what we have been going through for a good chunk of this month into a more chaotic situation.  For one thing, the Euro (ECMWF) has been advertising a strong digging trough that enters the Eastern half of the U.S. during that week and along with it a potential for what could be our first winter storm as it shows a surface low (albeit weak) traveling up the East Coast, though its wintry solution is aimed more toward the Carolinas than anywhere else (GA at least sees a little something).  In fact, there is indication of a cut-off of about 5 or 6 contours as it continues to strengthen, which would spell a major winter event in the areas favorable for seeing snow.  Factor in the potential for the large western ridge (+PNA) and a NAO that declines toward the weak negative side with a declining AO and you have a window of opportunity for some fun and games for sure.  As I recall in one of my previous posts, I mentioned that if we did get such to appear, that we could see something of interest take shape and this would fit the idea.  Not  to mention the fact that January is our best month anyway and so this favors things on the climatological side.  The GFS hasn't really been following behind the Euro and instead remains more zonal with the pattern.  I am not entirely sure if it will jump onboard with the Euro (or if the Euro loses its consistency and caves into the GFS's solutions) but one thing is for sure and that is the fact that it is definitely NOT SET IN STONE!  The Canadian would support the Euro's solution as it had one in similar fashion but somewhat different and apparently the 12z Euro ensembles but only on the western ridge being pumped.  As much as I like to see a pattern change that favors wintry fun for the East, I can't get too excited yet but our chances are increasing a good bit and someone is going to get hit hard with snow somewhere across the Southeast during the mid-period of meteorological winter if it plays out.  Will it occur I can't say but it bears watching over the next several days.  Stay tuned...

Snow total (inches):

500mb chart:

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Wet Rainy Period to Continue. Christmas Looking Iffy.

Despite the mild feeling in the air across most locations,  it has been quite dreary with clouds and rain over much of the region and I expect that to continue for today and through a part of Friday as the next storm system out of the southwest makes its way eastward, bringing with it tremendous amounts of rainfall and possibly some thunderstorms further south along the Gulf Coast States, and through southern SC and FL.  Doesn't look to be anything major but just keep in mind that for those of you in the areas mentioned could run into a storm or two later today.  The 60s look to be the highs with some folks possibly pushing 70.  Unbelievable for this time of year, as this would be more like late March type of weather.

As far as the Christmas weekend goes, right now I believe things will remain dry for the first part of Christmas Eve but later that evening and overnight, it could become rainy one last time and may last until the morning so keep that in mind.  Beyond that, temperatures look to finally drop back to normal or slightly below normal across parts of the Southeast so at least it will feel as it should around here as we begin to close this month and head into January.  I will have more on what I think may be in store for the rest of the winter season later.

I will likely not be posting anything until after Christmas since I have an awfully busy schedule, so I will go ahead and wish you folks a Merry Christmas and hope all goes well. Make the best of it with your family and friends. God bless. 

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

A Nice Warm Period for a Few Days. Next Chance of Rain Later This Week.

It certainly did not feel like December yesterday as highs were able to climb into the 60s, let alone managing to being higher than what was officially forecasted.  We will continue to look for this kind of weather to stick around over the next 3 days as highs during this period could reach the low 70s in spots thanks to being on the warm side of a high that will move due east in the Carolinas.  However, I expect as we begin to end this week for those temperatures to drop back down again with more rain on the way as a cold front pushes in.  Once it departs from the Southeast, we should remain around seasonable for temperatures during the Christmas week, remaining dry until next Tuesday with another possible round of showers.

Regarding the winter season, it is beginning to look like a 1967-1968/1984-1985 kind of winter where December averages slightly above normal but becomes colder for January and February so don't fret just yet.  In fact, judging by the way the pattern has been, it appears that there will be plenty more systems to swing through the Southeast and one of those are bound to be the one that brings a widespread winter event be it snow, ice, or both in this ever active Northern Hemispheric pattern.  There are also signs of a developing SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event taking place, which will aid in developing a -AO and eventually the NAO also going negative as the polar vortex would weaken and allow the colder air to be displaced further south.  With it being bottled for so long, when it finally does sink southward, it's going to mean business but we will cross that bridge when we come to it and see if it occurs.  Climatologically speaking, January is the best period anyway and so if this were timed correctly, we could certainly get into some fun and games later this winter but for now we can only wait and see if it all plays out.  Back away from the cliff folks...   

Monday, December 5, 2011

Rainy Setup for Tuesday/Wednesday. Turning Cooler Later in the Week.

Here we are, within the first few days of December and so far, it's been definitely warmer than how last year began thanks to the blocking that we had, which we are currently lacking sadly.  Highs have ranged from the mid 50s to low 60s for most across the Southeast.  We should continue to see this kind of temperatures over the next few days with increasing chances for rain, which is now targeted to be starting later today and through the first half of the week thanks to a rather slow-moving cold front.  With the moisture axis setting up in a more southwest to northeast fashion, when the rain does arrive, it will stick around for quite a while and could be heavy at times.  It may take until the early morning hours of Thursday before we can finally shove it all out of here giving the timing of its arrival and departure.  With the colder air behind the front, the mountains of TN/NC could have the rain change over to snow during the Wednesday night period.  Even some spots outside the TN mountains such as Nashville could see a rain or rain/snow mix changing to snow that night as well.

Temperatures take a dive back into the 50s once more for the rest of this week with staying in the 40s for highs and the early part of next week with lows backing down into the 30s again so seasonal conditions looks to be the case.  Overall, I'm expecting dry conditions to persist after our rain event for a while through Day 7.