Update on the Upcoming Winter Storm.

The trend has been our friend over the recent runs of the modeling.  Many now suggesting some light accumulations reaching even down toward the Charlotte area.  Our system is currently residing in the vicinity of the LA coast and should be ready to make its way over to our region sometime later in the evening or tonight with the initial band of rain spreading in.  This system will eventually find itself redeveloping near the coast after seemingly disappearing in the region, and colder air will be filtering in quickly (with aid from a decent high pressure in the GL) for CAD development and will allow generation of a good bit of snow as it mingles with the storm.  As it appears, everyone seems to start as rain (though the mountains may start as a mix or snow at the highest elevations) but then gradually mix with sleet and/or snow and become snow as we get in the later part of tomorrow.  It still appears that the northern vort that I mentioned previously continues to look interesting as it would become the upper-level feature and should it develop nicely and take a good track while being on the backside of the southern vort, there may be deformation banding setting up somewhere across the state and anyone underneath it would likely see locally heavier snowfall and possibly heavier sleet as well. As you all know, these types of features can be a headache to try and forecast so my confidence is low on exactly how that plays out but if it were to cut-off as it went over the Carolinas, it could be VERY exciting but not jumping on that bandwagon just yet.  Waiting to see if we can get it right with that one but chances are if such verified it would mean re-thinking on what I believe could be the snow totals out of this, and speaking of such, I have created my preliminary map of it.  Again, just like my last map, several things can make this call bust on either side so it may be a snow-go or no go (leaning more toward potential higher amounts with the good trends).  Focus on the low end of the scale for conservative reasons for now:

We'll see how radar trends go through tonight and tomorrow but I have increased confidence that this will be the first flakes for many and likely the first accumulating snow outside the mountains for once.  Despite being but several hours away, there is still plenty of time for a change or two to go in our favor for the areas further south in the state but at this rate, the trend will probably be a tad more snowy across the southern piedmont (and yes maybe the extreme Upstate SC area) but the key term of this post is just that: Trends and nothing more.  I will put out another update if it looks like snow accumulations will have to be notched upward and if things really go our way over the next few hours...Take care and be prepared.