As many had feared, the Valentine's Day event did not pan out so well in the snow department. There were reports of a few flakes or brief light snow mixing with sleet and/or rain (or just plain sleet) but no accumulation whatsoever from what I've gathered. We had the moisture and temperatures were coming down some but not enough to allow a good kickover to snow across the Upper Southeast and put down totals like what some folks, including myself, were thinking. This goes back to what I said previously, and that was despite how it may have looked before, things can change on a dime and unfortunately it was on the bad side. However, the NC mountain locations did decent as expected with accumulations ranging from a dusting to 2". Here are a few totals that I gathered:
Cullowhee: Dusting
Highlands: 1"
Macon and Clay county areas: 2"
Next system will be an all liquid deal as a round of showers should push through later Wednesday into early Thursday thanks to an approaching cold front. The rain could be heavy at times and there is some indication that there may be a few thunderstorms thrown into the mix but not really expecting to see much of that as of now. Behind that, we'll see drier air push in and knock the temperatures back down again after being in the mid 50s to 60s for highs for a few days across most locations but not much of a cool down though.
Model waffling continues with the Sunday/Monday threat as it appears that every model is handling the upper air pattern in some sort of fashion. There is no clear cut indication on what the final solution is going to be, as the energy that's flung about is making it rather difficult to pinpoint anything. Here's what I've noticed from each model that I've looked at recently:
- GFS has been constantly changing in some fashion and so it has been very inconsistent. At one point, it's 0z showed a NC snow special to hardly anything on the 6z to a rain event of some sort on the 12z. However, from that point and through its 18z and 0z it still shows that system cutting more inland and through the Carolinas with heavy rain and so we'll see if it keep staying on this idea in future runs. Need to see a stronger 50/50 low and probably aid from an additional area of high pressure in good position and strong enough for the cold air to mingle with the moisture and keep the system further south overall for this model. Even then, this still became the outlier of the 0zs and so will not be concerned with this one at the moment (though it still stands a chance of verifying to an extent).
- The Euro has been wanting to bring in the system further inland on its past few runs, causing our temperatures to be a tad too warm for anything wintry. There was indication of a big hit of snow across the entire western half of NC on one of its 12z runs but has abandoned that idea up until tonight's 0z, which shows a bit of accumulation across the NC mountains but no one east of there. However, the past two recent runs after the small north shifts have pushed this further south and getting a tad colder so we'll see if that's a trend in the near future. It actually seems to nearly match up with what it depicted back when the storm was 10 days away so that was interesting on its part.
- CMC has been adamant on a system that bombs as it heads into the Atlantic but unfortunately wants to show it cutting inland some through southern GA and SC. Right now it advertises rain but could be enough cold on the backside for a changeover to snow or a mix for a short period across portions of NC. Would not expect much, if any, accumulation if that were to play out with a scenario such as this and likely this is for the northern half of the state and into southern VA. Only needs to trend colder.
- NAM has been very consistent on a healthy system that traverses along the Southern US states (at 84 it's around the NM/TX areas) with a good 1027mb high pressure (a tad weak) but just enough to aid in supplying colder air. Will be interesting to see if it can keep this up.
Overall, you can pretty much tell that we have a LONG way to go before we can even begin to feel confident on something here. There are many details that need to be ironed out and to be honest, I suspect even more waffling when the shortwave energy finally gets sampled (if it hasn't already). Hopefully as the week pushes on we will see one of those cases where we have a storm, lose it in some way, and then bring it back within 2 or 3 days before the date in which it begins. We haven't had one of those yet as this winter seems to want to advertise a threat and then eliminate it through a very weak/dead system or one that didn't feature enough cold (ala this recent event) for widespread snow. If we start to trend better, then it will be the FIRST TIME this season that we have seen a threat hold UNDER five days. No more 7-10 day outlooks, which is a good sign but we need to keep this up. In this case, I would not be anymore disappointed or excited about this compared to the past few days since we can't seem to get a consensus here on what plays out but all that I can really say is to keep watching. It may not be until sometime Thursday or heck even Friday that we can safely say what will be happening but remember: Just like this recent event, it can all change on the day of its arrival and so that needs to be kept in the back of your mind (and mine as well). It's going to be quite a roller coaster ride with this one so hang on.
Take care everyone.
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