Model trending through much of Thursday has peaked several folks' interest once more after going through two days of less than hopeful solutions for anyone outside the NC Apps. Recent output from the NAM, for example, shows this event going from initially rain to light snow or flurries as it begins to get colder on the backside of the strengthening system. Another one, the 21z SREF, shows a nice period of wintry precipitation for parts of NC (and yes both of these are giving the Charlotte area some love for light snow or flurry action). Canadian and UKMET remain with their solutions so not much change on them. Euro for tonight has trended colder and wants to give much of TN, extreme northern MS and AL, and most of the northern half of NC a few inches. Another southward shift or two with a solution like that and it could mean giving the southern piedmont and foothills something more than what I'm thinking but definitely not ready to say that will happen just yet, as I am skeptical of such a big shift right now but will not eliminate the possibility that as we get closer that we may have some form of "February miracle" here with this storm. Specifically speaking for NC, it does appear that for the folks along I-40 and especially as you head north, some accumulation of snow is possible overall. For areas just south of I-40 and on down toward the NC/SC border, at best I would say trace to perhaps 0.5" accumulations would take place given the longevity of the period of backside light snow and flurries. Bear in mind, those are just simple thoughts about what I believe would be the case right now; NOT a forecast. If the trend continues to look like a snowy hit is on the way after all, I will put out something either later today or tomorrow regarding totals, though it may more than likely be sometime Saturday for conservative reasons. One thing is for certain, and that is this threat is still up for grabs and it can easily trend toward the colder/wintry side or take a last minute jog back to the more depressing looks but we'll see. All options are STILL on the table at this point. With all the moving parts involved, there is no lock of any sort even being only 2 days away. What we want to see are the following for a more southerly track and colder look:
1. The northern and southern streams to stay separated from each other back west. If we get a phase going on over there, it will mean the system tracks further north and it will be all rain or little wintry precipitation. Thus this will allow the system to remain left alone to go more easterly vs. NE or north and then east (e.g. track through the Apps, Central Carolinas, etc.).
2. Going back to #1, with a scenario like that, this will mean that the area of high pressure, one that's strong enough, will be able to set up further east somewhere across the Great Lakes and push the colder air down, allowing it to establish itself ahead of the storm. If those streams phased, the high would not be able to situate itself in a good spot and fail at providing a bit of cold air.
3. As you may have heard several times, the all important 50/50 (Newfoundland) low needs to be in the right place and at a good strength. If it's too weak and/or in a bad position, we will get no aid from it and this will also cause the system to track further north as well.
4. Assuming the above listed things set up for something favorable, the energy involved in the northern stream (after splitting) will involve one of the pieces becoming an upper level feature behind the southern vort. With that splitting process of the northern stream energy, this means that it will not be able to shear the southern stream and weaken the system while flinging it northeastward.
And that's only the short version of how to summarize what needs to be analyzed. There is A LOT more detail that I could have went into but decided to keep this in layman terms for those of you who are not as familiar with the meteorological techno-lingo and such. As you can see, it all needs to come together correctly if we ever hope to see a bigger shift with the snow threat so unless you live in the areas I mentioned where it's most likely to snow and receive decent accumulation, it's limited the further south you go in NC. Again MUCH can and will change, as they say, over today and probably a part of tomorrow if my assumption is correct with the model behavior. Also will make note once more that I do think at this point, there is a chance for some backside snow showers or flurries to occur but again can go either way from tonight and beyond. Could this be the first time we see a winter hit of some kind? Will things trend in our favor toward the snowy side of life in an otherwise miserable, agonizing winter? We can only hope and that's all there is to it. Pray, hope, do the snow dance, whatever it takes to bring good mojo for us (And of course I send out my optimism to other folks in the Southeast who are in a favorable spot for seeing potential snowfall. Tonight's Euro already proves that potential is possible).
Until then, take care everyone! May this be the one time that we actually see a winter event....
1. The northern and southern streams to stay separated from each other back west. If we get a phase going on over there, it will mean the system tracks further north and it will be all rain or little wintry precipitation. Thus this will allow the system to remain left alone to go more easterly vs. NE or north and then east (e.g. track through the Apps, Central Carolinas, etc.).
2. Going back to #1, with a scenario like that, this will mean that the area of high pressure, one that's strong enough, will be able to set up further east somewhere across the Great Lakes and push the colder air down, allowing it to establish itself ahead of the storm. If those streams phased, the high would not be able to situate itself in a good spot and fail at providing a bit of cold air.
3. As you may have heard several times, the all important 50/50 (Newfoundland) low needs to be in the right place and at a good strength. If it's too weak and/or in a bad position, we will get no aid from it and this will also cause the system to track further north as well.
4. Assuming the above listed things set up for something favorable, the energy involved in the northern stream (after splitting) will involve one of the pieces becoming an upper level feature behind the southern vort. With that splitting process of the northern stream energy, this means that it will not be able to shear the southern stream and weaken the system while flinging it northeastward.
And that's only the short version of how to summarize what needs to be analyzed. There is A LOT more detail that I could have went into but decided to keep this in layman terms for those of you who are not as familiar with the meteorological techno-lingo and such. As you can see, it all needs to come together correctly if we ever hope to see a bigger shift with the snow threat so unless you live in the areas I mentioned where it's most likely to snow and receive decent accumulation, it's limited the further south you go in NC. Again MUCH can and will change, as they say, over today and probably a part of tomorrow if my assumption is correct with the model behavior. Also will make note once more that I do think at this point, there is a chance for some backside snow showers or flurries to occur but again can go either way from tonight and beyond. Could this be the first time we see a winter hit of some kind? Will things trend in our favor toward the snowy side of life in an otherwise miserable, agonizing winter? We can only hope and that's all there is to it. Pray, hope, do the snow dance, whatever it takes to bring good mojo for us (And of course I send out my optimism to other folks in the Southeast who are in a favorable spot for seeing potential snowfall. Tonight's Euro already proves that potential is possible).
Until then, take care everyone! May this be the one time that we actually see a winter event....
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