More Severe Weather Potential for Later Today. Substantial Warmth in Temperatures Before Cooling Off Next Week With Perhaps Maybe Round 3 for the Weekend.

Once more, we appear to come across a scenario regarding more potential for the development of severe weather across the Southeast.  Latest data suggests that the ULL will cut across the OH/TN Valleys, setting the stage for areas further south with the approaching cold front.  Temperatures should warm into the 60s and 70s for highs with some indication of instability and moist airflow, which according to the most recent run of the NAM shows low to mid 60 dewpoint readings.  There will also be a LLJ (low level jet) that sets up, which will aid in bringing another scenario similar to the previous event with the strong winds in place and of course the possibility for hail could occur as well. Winds will once more be the primary threat above all else.  I'd look for the best activity to be for later portion of today, though there may be a few thunderstorms during the mid-late afternoon before the front pushes through.

After the system clears out, much warmer air will be in place for tomorrow with highs reaching the mid-upper 70s, and can't rule out maybe a few 80 degree readings somewhere in the region.  There may be some showers or even a few storms that threaten certain areas given the progged behavior of the front by modeling (which shows it going back north some) but other locations should remain dry and will allow those folks to get out and take good advantage of that.  Afterwards, Friday and Saturday appear to feature yet another round of showers and thunderstorms with temperatures backing down toward the upper 60s to around 70 (50s to low 60s further west) until Sunday.  At that point, the second cold front will have pushed through and temperatures will fall into the 50s to low 60s for highs for the rest of the Southeast with Monday being the coolest day but should gradually warm back up again for the latter part of the week.

Regarding that second front, setup for that particular threat looks similar to today's event but with an enhanced risks of a few tornadoes given the progged strong shear and instability in play so we'll see if that continues to be a concern down the road.

Have a good day.

Severe Weather Potential for Today with Continued Warmth.

Keeping an eye on the approaching cold front back west as that will work its way across the Southeast for today.  The front appears the feature the possibility for strong/severe thunderstorms to develop through the day. With the warm and somewhat unstable airmass in place out in combo with a nice moist flow out ahead, this will set the stage for the activity as it pushes through.  Concern at this point appears to be mainly strong winds with some hail and given the look of the shear, I also can't rule out some isolated tornadoes thrown into the mix so it all bears watching for sure.  The further we progress through the afternoon, chances appear to increase as storms are progged to pick up a bit of speed while developing into a more linear-look, and with any bowing could yield stronger wind potential so please do be prepared if this is the case, as I estimate the winds could reach around 60-70 mph at their strongest gusts.  Highs appear to once more soar in the 60s to 70s so this will only further benefit the storms.  Keep tuned to your local weather and/or news channels, and of course that includes the weather radio if you have such, and keep an eye on the sky as well.

Clear Skies Today with A Nice Rebound in Temperatures Through the Week.

What an interesting event it was for many across NC as the system moved through, spreading snow for the first time across the state outside the mountains.  As expected, there were winners and losers with this one, and unfortunately for the folks south of I-40, little or no snow accumulation really took place like I forecasted (actually most of the predicted totals besides my thoughts on it were lower), though I can say that some folks did indeed see flakes mix with sleet or saw a brief period of snow fall, which allowed a trace to be reported for certain places such as Charlotte.  This and other areas who managed to report both the snow and accumulation of some sort are now out of the "No snow/measurable snow" idea for the winter.  Good deal. The problem with the event overall was the fact that the system did not go as far south as I had figured and moved a little more quickly, thus cutting the length of time that it would stick around.  In fact, by nighttime, skies were already clearing but as always, there are curveballs thrown somewhere down the road and this storm proved that such can happen.  Another issue was the fact that the system's moisture stayed more north rather than wrapping back into NC, putting much of VA in the game aside from northern NC and despite the small redevelopment back in SW NC, that never really made it further east later that evening but thankfully a spoke of energy that was gathering near the GA/SC border earlier that day that made its way here and provided the rain to sleet event for places such Gastonia. With that, this made me decide to NOT put out a final call map, as it looked like the preliminary was safe enough to stick with and make it the official one instead.  I'm thinking this is the last shot at winter weather, unless the end of this month brings something according to GFS, which right now looks more wet but could trend wintry and if not that, then MAYBE something in early March.  Who knows...

Temperatures will feel really nice as we push through the week with highs gradually going from 40s-50s to 50s-60s and can't rule out some 70°+ readings for highs on Thursday or Friday.  It looks like some shower activity will be arriving as we get through the mid-late week period, increasing in chance over time.  Parts of TN looks to get some showers here and there through the week but slight chances at best until later as it stands now. Could change toward a drier scenario but overall it looks nice and dry for most despite the shower chances.

Update on the Upcoming Winter Storm.

The trend has been our friend over the recent runs of the modeling.  Many now suggesting some light accumulations reaching even down toward the Charlotte area.  Our system is currently residing in the vicinity of the LA coast and should be ready to make its way over to our region sometime later in the evening or tonight with the initial band of rain spreading in.  This system will eventually find itself redeveloping near the coast after seemingly disappearing in the region, and colder air will be filtering in quickly (with aid from a decent high pressure in the GL) for CAD development and will allow generation of a good bit of snow as it mingles with the storm.  As it appears, everyone seems to start as rain (though the mountains may start as a mix or snow at the highest elevations) but then gradually mix with sleet and/or snow and become snow as we get in the later part of tomorrow.  It still appears that the northern vort that I mentioned previously continues to look interesting as it would become the upper-level feature and should it develop nicely and take a good track while being on the backside of the southern vort, there may be deformation banding setting up somewhere across the state and anyone underneath it would likely see locally heavier snowfall and possibly heavier sleet as well. As you all know, these types of features can be a headache to try and forecast so my confidence is low on exactly how that plays out but if it were to cut-off as it went over the Carolinas, it could be VERY exciting but not jumping on that bandwagon just yet.  Waiting to see if we can get it right with that one but chances are if such verified it would mean re-thinking on what I believe could be the snow totals out of this, and speaking of such, I have created my preliminary map of it.  Again, just like my last map, several things can make this call bust on either side so it may be a snow-go or no go (leaning more toward potential higher amounts with the good trends).  Focus on the low end of the scale for conservative reasons for now:

We'll see how radar trends go through tonight and tomorrow but I have increased confidence that this will be the first flakes for many and likely the first accumulating snow outside the mountains for once.  Despite being but several hours away, there is still plenty of time for a change or two to go in our favor for the areas further south in the state but at this rate, the trend will probably be a tad more snowy across the southern piedmont (and yes maybe the extreme Upstate SC area) but the key term of this post is just that: Trends and nothing more.  I will put out another update if it looks like snow accumulations will have to be notched upward and if things really go our way over the next few hours...Take care and be prepared.
  

Carefully Watching the Weekend Storm Evolution. Perhaps a Bit of Snow Outside the Apps After All???

Model trending through much of Thursday has peaked several folks' interest once more after going through two days of less than hopeful solutions for anyone outside the NC Apps.  Recent output from the NAM, for example, shows this event going from initially rain to light snow or flurries as it begins to get colder on the backside of the strengthening system.  Another one, the 21z SREF, shows a nice period of wintry precipitation for parts of NC (and yes both of these are giving the Charlotte area some love for light snow or flurry action).  Canadian and UKMET remain with their solutions so not much change on them.  Euro for tonight has trended colder and wants to give much of TN, extreme northern MS and AL, and most of the northern half of NC a few inches.  Another southward shift or two with a solution like that and it could mean giving the southern piedmont and foothills something more than what I'm thinking but definitely not ready to say that will happen just yet, as I am skeptical of such a big shift right now but will not eliminate the possibility that as we get closer that we may have some form of "February miracle" here with this storm.  Specifically speaking for NC, it does appear that for the folks along I-40 and especially as you head north, some accumulation of snow is possible overall.  For areas just south of I-40 and on down toward the NC/SC border, at best I would say trace to perhaps 0.5" accumulations would take place given the longevity of the period of backside light snow and flurries.  Bear in mind, those are just simple thoughts about what I believe would be the case right now; NOT a forecast.  If the trend continues to look like a snowy hit is on the way after all, I will put out something either later today or tomorrow regarding totals, though it may more than likely be sometime Saturday for conservative reasons.  One thing is for certain, and that is this threat is still up for grabs and it can easily trend toward the colder/wintry side or take a last minute jog back to the more depressing looks but we'll see.  All options are STILL on the table at this point.  With all the moving parts involved, there is no lock of any sort even being only 2 days away. What we want to see are the following for a more southerly track and colder look:

1. The northern and southern streams to stay separated from each other back west.  If we get a phase going on over there, it will mean the system tracks further north and it will be all rain or little wintry precipitation. Thus this will allow the system to remain left alone to go more easterly vs. NE or north and then east (e.g. track through the Apps, Central Carolinas, etc.).

2. Going back to #1, with a scenario like that, this will mean that the area of high pressure, one that's strong enough, will be able to set up further east somewhere across the Great Lakes and push the colder air down, allowing it to establish itself ahead of the storm.  If those streams phased, the high would not be able to situate itself in a good spot and fail at providing a bit of cold air.

3. As you may have heard several times, the all important 50/50 (Newfoundland) low needs to be in the right place and at a good strength.  If it's too weak and/or in a bad position, we will get no aid from it and this will also cause the system to track further north as well.

4.  Assuming the above listed things set up for something favorable, the energy involved in the northern stream (after splitting) will involve one of the pieces becoming an upper level feature behind the southern vort.  With that splitting process of the northern stream energy, this means that it will not be able to shear the southern stream and weaken the system while flinging it northeastward.

And that's only the short version of how to summarize what needs to be analyzed.  There is A LOT more detail that I could have went into but decided to keep this in layman terms for those of you who are not as familiar with the meteorological techno-lingo and such. As you can see, it all needs to come together correctly if we ever hope to see a bigger shift with the snow threat so unless you live in the areas I mentioned where it's most likely to snow and receive decent accumulation, it's limited the further south you go in NC. Again MUCH can and will change, as they say, over today and probably a part of tomorrow if my assumption is correct with the model behavior.  Also will make note once more that I do think at this point, there is a chance for some backside snow showers or flurries to occur but again can go either way from tonight and beyond.  Could this be the first time we see a winter hit of some kind?  Will things trend in our favor toward the snowy side of life in an otherwise miserable, agonizing winter?  We can only hope and that's all there is to it. Pray, hope, do the snow dance, whatever it takes to bring good mojo for us (And of course I send out my optimism to other folks in the Southeast who are in a favorable spot for seeing potential snowfall.  Tonight's Euro already proves that potential is possible).

Until then, take care everyone!  May this be the one time that we actually see a winter event....       

Warming Up for a Bit with the Next Chance of Rain for Wednesday Night/Thursday. Still Watching the Weekend Threat.

As many had feared, the Valentine's Day event did not pan out so well in the snow department.  There were reports of a few flakes or brief light snow mixing with sleet and/or rain (or just plain sleet) but no accumulation whatsoever from what I've gathered. We had the moisture and temperatures were coming down some but not enough to allow a good kickover to snow across the Upper Southeast and put down totals like what some folks, including myself, were thinking.  This goes back to what I said previously, and that was despite how it may have looked before, things can change on a dime and unfortunately it was on the bad side.  However, the NC mountain locations did decent as expected with accumulations ranging from a dusting to 2".  Here are a few totals that I gathered:

Cullowhee: Dusting

Highlands: 1"

Macon and Clay county areas: 2"

Next system will be an all liquid deal as a round of showers should push through later Wednesday into early Thursday thanks to an approaching cold front.  The rain could be heavy at times and there is some indication that there may be a few thunderstorms thrown into the mix but not really expecting to see much of that as of now.  Behind that, we'll see drier air push in and knock the temperatures back down again after being in the mid 50s to 60s for highs for a few days across most locations but not much of a cool down though.

Model waffling continues with the Sunday/Monday threat as it appears that every model is handling the upper air pattern in some sort of fashion.  There is no clear cut indication on what the final solution is going to be, as the energy that's flung about is making it rather difficult to pinpoint anything.  Here's what I've noticed from each model that I've looked at recently:

• GFS has been constantly changing in some fashion and so it has been very inconsistent.  At one point, it's 0z showed a NC snow special to hardly anything on the 6z to a rain event of some sort on the 12z.  However, from that point and through its 18z and 0z it still shows that system cutting more inland and through the Carolinas with heavy rain and so we'll see if it keep staying on this idea in future runs.  Need to see a stronger 50/50 low and probably aid from an additional area of high pressure in good position and strong enough for the cold air to mingle with the moisture and keep the system further south overall for this model.  Even then, this still became the outlier of the 0zs and so will not be concerned with this one at the moment (though it still stands a chance of verifying to an extent).  

• The Euro has been wanting to bring in the system further inland on its past few runs, causing our temperatures to be a tad too warm for anything wintry. There was indication of a big hit of snow across the entire western half of NC on one of its 12z runs but has abandoned that idea up until tonight's 0z, which shows a bit of accumulation across the NC mountains but no one east of there.   However, the past two recent runs after the small north shifts have pushed this further south and getting a tad colder so we'll see if that's a trend in the near future.  It actually seems to nearly match up with what it depicted back when the storm was 10 days away so that was interesting on its part. 

• CMC has been adamant on a system that bombs as it heads into the Atlantic but unfortunately wants to show it cutting inland some through southern GA and SC.  Right now it advertises rain but could be enough cold on the backside for a changeover to snow or a mix for a short period across portions of NC.  Would not expect much, if any, accumulation if that were to play out with a scenario such as this and likely this is for the northern half of the state and into southern VA.  Only needs to trend colder.

• NAM has been very consistent on a healthy system that traverses along the Southern US states (at 84 it's around the NM/TX areas) with a good 1027mb high pressure (a tad weak) but just enough to aid in supplying colder air.  Will be interesting to see if it can keep this up.

Overall, you can pretty much tell that we have a LONG way to go before we can even begin to feel confident on something here.  There are many details that need to be ironed out and to be honest, I suspect even more waffling when the shortwave energy finally gets sampled (if it hasn't already).  Hopefully as the week pushes on we will see one of those cases where we have a storm, lose it in some way, and then bring it back within 2 or 3 days before the date in which it begins.  We haven't had one of those yet as this winter seems to want to advertise a threat and then eliminate it through a very weak/dead system or one that didn't feature enough cold (ala this recent event) for widespread snow. If we start to trend better, then it will be the FIRST TIME this season that we have seen a threat hold UNDER five days.  No more 7-10 day outlooks, which is a good sign but we need to keep this up.  In this case, I would not be anymore disappointed or excited about this compared to the past few days since we can't seem to get a consensus here on what plays out but all that I can really say is to keep watching.  It may not be until sometime Thursday or heck even Friday that we can safely say what will be happening but remember:  Just like this recent event, it can all change on the day of its arrival and so that needs to be kept in the back of your mind (and mine as well).  It's going to be quite a roller coaster ride with this one so hang on.  

Take care everyone.

More Valentine's Day Storm Details. Continuing to See An Interesting Event for Next Sunday. Will It Happen...?

All eyes for those who stand a good chance of seeing some frozen precipitation are watching as the storm continues to develop and push forward.  Snow and wintry mix events have already occurred across portions of TX and OK, and this activity will shift into AR next during the early morning hours today.  Some places across those states were not forecasted to have much accumulation but turns out that a few folks out there received an inch or two of snow and even some sleet managed to pile up a bit!  Quite a surprise for them and goes to show that despite how it appeared before the event began, anything can happen even on the day that the event's happening.  As for what is down the road across the Southeast region, the threat still remains that there could be a period of anything of the four (snow, sleet, rain or perhaps even a bit of freezing drizzle/rain) or a combo of some sort and any changeovers.  Much will depend on timing, the behavior of the precipitation, and of course the trending of the temperatures.  I'm still thinking that for the areas favorable, there may be some light accumulations across portions of TN and across the northern portions of MS, AL and even GA stands a chance, and of course up across the Apps.  Again, if such is desired, we need to see to it that this precipitation arrives earlier which will be much more acceptable since that would mean the precipitation will fall during the nighttime hours and with the additional cooling from the precipitation falling through the dry air (assuming it's enough), it should further allow a sufficient temperature profile to support anything frozen and last for a longer period of time.  Course, this may take a while to saturate the air but eventually frozen precipitation will initiate and reach the surface.  Not saying that is exactly what will play out but rather I am stating that is what the setup would have to be in order to pull this off, and honestly I do think this just may be the case as of now.  It still doesn't look like much further east into the Carolinas but in the western sections, the further west you are the better the chance you have that you may see a few flakes and/or sleet pellets during the early morning (and yes I think even areas such the Charlotte metro region could see a brief period of it) but don't expect any accumulation and likely temperatures will warm to where it's drizzle or maybe just remaining cloudy since the moisture is forecasted to eventually break up or dry out as it attempts to push further into the Carolinas.  What matters now is watching how that system behaves and how our temperatures are looking through the day today and into tonight.  With that said, here is my thinking on how much snow could accumulate.  Bear in mind, this will depend on a few things, such as precipitation rate, temperature, whether or not there is mixing present, precip. changes, etc. and thus can say that with any ice and/or rain can knock down totals on this map so try not to get too excited but as of now I feel confident enough to create this.  Also make note that when I say up to an inch for the light blue area, I'm referring to anything from a trace to that mark so not everyone may see an inch but it's possible that a few spots can get there.

Snow Map:

As for the other system next week, tonight's runs have been very interesting with this one. The Canadian, for example, has this curving up and along the southern East Coast (though it begins to move off into the Atlantic after leaving the GA/SC borders) bombing as it does so to 999mb.  Snow falls over parts of NC with some sleet further south and east of the state.  On toward the Euro, it is still adamant on a southern slider-style kind of system and is actually a bit stronger than what it previously forecasted (1006mb) as it crosses northern FL with 850s a tad below freezing.  However, while 2m temperatures are almost at that same point, it's not quite there but the model still insists on giving very light accumulations (appeared to be at least a dusting) for parts of NC/SC and then takes that system OTS.  Definitely still worth watching and of course, this run made quite a northern trend with the storm but as we know, it is better to see these type of scenarios be more suppressed and then gradually see improvement the closer we get so hopefully this does not keeping trending into a more inland kind of system but I believe that it will keep that system south and then maybe we may see good trending of it becoming more coastal and stronger with slightly colder air to work with.  Keep those fingers crossed!

0z CMC Precip Type:

0z ECMWF:

Arctic Air Settling In with Persistent Windy Conditions. Few Flakes For Some Today with Snow Showers Across the Apps. A Few Details Regarding Next Week.

Man what a day it has been for many.  Early-day temperatures in the mid 40s have quickly fallen down into the 30s throughout the afternoon and with that some gusty winds will be around for the rest of the day.  Winds should gradually die down though as we get into tomorrow but I expect the occasional 30 (maybe 35) mph gust could kick up before then.  Some folks were lucky enough to see a few flakes escape outside the Apps, which does officially count as "seeing snow" of some fashion so the flakeless winter is ruled out for some but don't expect anything bigger than that if you happen to be standing in the right spot.  Snow will continue to break out across the mountains and with that WWAs and WSWs have been put out for the counties up that way.   Lows should be making a drive down to the 20s and teens with mountain spots looking at lower teens to single digit readings!  I can't rule out on upper teen readings for some further south in the Southeast so prepare yourself for quite a cold night.    We will likely remain quite chilly for a few days before warming back up some during the mid-week period.

There has been much talk of the supposed Valentine's Day threat, and if you are one of the folks that have been following this, then you are likely aware of the recent downtrend we are seeing with this.  If you want my thoughts on what I think could play out with this event, it's this:  While I do think that there will be some kind of wintry event that takes place across the upper portion of the Southeast (especially for those west of the Apps), it's hard to really see much of anything further east as the system's moisture becomes limited and the cold air out ahead of this appears to want to retreat before it gets into the Carolinas.  Now to be honest, I actually think that we could pull off a quick improvement of this system and may see something for everyone further east in the region (the favorable spots that is) but if so, this would need to happen early in the morning as temperatures will eventually become too warm to be anything frozen but will say that some flakes of snow or a mix of it and a bit of sleet is possible before it kicks over to showery-like activity (if any moisture left by then).  It bears watching but I really can't be too optimistic with such.  Beyond that, there's another system to watch (if you've been seeing the Euro) that would occur sometime during the 19th-20th time frame but being that it's way out there, I can't go too deep with that one but yesterday's (and today's) 12z both have a nice southern storm system that slides through with enough cold air in place for possibly a good hit.  We'll see.  I can relate with some of you that we would watch any threat, be it in the near or long term, with the way this winter has been.

By the way, I would have put up an update yesterday but had some issues with my original monitor.  Turns out that something within it has blown and is no longer able to show a display of anything so I had to swap out with another one that I had lying around and do a bit of adjusting with both my desktops.

Have a good day and stay bundled.

Wedge Wins Out for Those In NC for the Past Two Days. Update on the Potential Storm

Well I must admit despite how things appeared to be for our highs, it looks like if you happen to live in the wedge that set up, you are likely one of those folks who are struggling to get out of the 40s or maybe just barely passed 50 for highs today.  Yesterday was a similar story but there was quite a tight gradient in temperatures across the Carolinas.  Where it was in the 40s and 50s up north as you head further south temperatures were substantially warmer (someone reported reaching 80 for a high down along the SC coast)!  What a difference.  Clouds hang tough for a while longer, though some of us are already clearing out and we even managed to see some light showers/sprinkles occur across SC.

Regarding the upcoming weekend threat, it's still up in the air where we go with this.  Modeling has been coming up with different solutions; some trending drier but colder, some going with a rainy look (which is still my thinking unless this system ultimately gets suppressed), or if it's anything like the NOGAPS (Navy) model, the wintry hit but GFS has backed off from that since its 0z.  All of this appears to be highly dependent on how good our phase goes.  I made note of this yesterday about how it needs to occur and do so correctly in order to pull off a wintry hit here.  Otherwise, we get nothing interesting and will be forced to look on ahead to anything else that may hold some potential.  Here's what I mean.  Look at the 500mb chart below.  You will see 3 pieces of energy that's available.

18z NAM:

This needs to occur in a way that the system will become much stronger and will take a favorable track (GoM  right up along the East Coast) with cold enough air in play.  Also notice that this would be showing a potential Triple Phase which are VERY RARE and when such a process becomes successful it can produce quite a major system.  The March Superstorm of 1993 is a classic example of a Triple Phase scenario but I'm in NO WAY saying this is what will happen since odds are heavily stacked against seeing something like that again so soon but regardless, it's still interesting to note that this is showing up.  The more likely phase potential would include the bottom two and not the one that's far north at the moment.  Like I stated earlier, there is much colder air that looks to come down for a while, which most modeling seems to agree on but with the northern stream being so dominant, the system can't pull further north.  Now I suppose that the GFS could be playing its typical bias by having systems too far south due to being too strong with the northern stream but that is just wishful thinking on my part, as this go around could be an exception.  As with all phasing potentials, timing and location will be very difficult for modeling especially when you take into account the current behavior of the pattern so much will likely change over and over again for a few days on all the specifics.  We probably won't get a better handle on this until around Thursday I would assume but not holding my breath for it just yet.  Just keep watching and if anything changes (good or bad) I will update again.

  

Rain Winding Down Through the Morning. Still Watching February Pattern with A Potential Interesting System

As of this post, the last bit of rain is just now pushing through the Carolinas with areas back west already clearing out.  There are still a few lingering showers in some spots but I expect a gradual drying solution throughout today.  Highs for today should range in the 50s and for a part of this week before we warm up a bit. Not nearly as warm as we were for the past week with those 60s to around 70 but still pushing at least slightly above normal for some; others staying around seasonal.  We should remain dry for most of the week but there could be a few showers for portions of the Southeast on Friday but not too concerned with that at the moment.

We're almost done with the first week of this month, and already the potential pattern change still looks like a possibility at some point.  If such is to take place (and hopefully so), I would expect it to be sometime either during mid or maybe even the late period of the month.  Of course, one should be aware that the further we go with this, the less time we have left to get in on something before winter is officially over but it's not impossible to get snow even going through late March but that takes a VERY lucky setup to get snow at that point, let alone accumulations.  The latter portion of the previous week and throughout this new week will put a strain on how models handle the overall look of the northern hemispheric pattern so I expect some flip-flopping to continue for a while. Recently however, we seem to be noticing the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) forecasted to actually get a move on for once, which is set to go into Phase 8 (good if you like cold).  No guarantees yet on this but it is encouraging to see such being depicted but the question remains as to whether or not we can get a strong signal into Phases 1 and 2 or does it die off before then.  Also the possibility for the NAO to head into the negative territory has been popping up every now and then so that bears watching if we can just get the Greenland ridge established, especially since we finally have our AO in the negative phase and of course, the +PNA has continued to be advertised over the next several days but we still need to see to it that it develops and positions itself correctly for much of this month.  I will continue to watch how it all unfolds but right now the full-blown change is only at the potential stage so nothing set in stone yet but the chance is better than it had been for December and January and if so, we may actually get in on much colder air; one that actually lasts longer instead of being a quick shot.

There have been signs of the next system, especially per the recent GFS and its ensemble mean, that we will get a gulf low that develops and tracks itself in a way that would be favorable for a nice winter storm event. The model has been showing this for quite a while but tonight's run has truly began to peak my interest, for it was quite a close call with something. However, temperatures are not quite cold enough as of now but the trend has recently been for this to inch itself closer and nearly mingle with the storm for the Southeast on some of the latest runs so we will see if we can continue that cold trend.  To complicate matters, there is also potential that we can get some sort of phase going on (and we all know how difficult that already can be on modeling).  Right now, my confidence is rather low on what plays out but if I had to side with something, I am leaning on just a plain rain event at the moment unless things change and we do end up seeing a better chance at something frozen.  The Euro has flipped quite a few times on its part with temperature and has gotten to the point where it doesn't have the storm as of its 0z but has attempted to push colder air into the Southeast so it's a battle between it and the GFS.  We need to see that cold build in more quickly and deeper before the system gets its act together if we want to see anything frozen with this one but right now I really can't say how good our chances are with this. The good news is that this is within a week instead of around 10 days or more out so we have that on our side but that means room for improvement will decrease the closer we get and in that case, we would like to see the colder trend pull through over the next 2 or 3 days.  Course, this also means that we still need to have our system take a good track instead of staying too far south or weaken/die off. Can't say I'm too optimistic with this but we can only wait and see what models have to say about this once we get through most of this week. Could be rain, could be a nice wintry hit, could be just dry.  Who knows? We're all playing the Guessing Game here...

Take care everyone and stay safe.