All eyes for those who stand a good chance of seeing some frozen precipitation are watching as the storm continues to develop and push forward. Snow and wintry mix events have already occurred across portions of TX and OK, and this activity will shift into AR next during the early morning hours today. Some places across those states were not forecasted to have much accumulation but turns out that a few folks out there received an inch or two of snow and even some sleet managed to pile up a bit! Quite a surprise for them and goes to show that despite how it appeared before the event began, anything can happen even on the day that the event's happening. As for what is down the road across the Southeast region, the threat still remains that there could be a period of anything of the four (snow, sleet, rain or perhaps even a bit of freezing drizzle/rain) or a combo of some sort and any changeovers. Much will depend on timing, the behavior of the precipitation, and of course the trending of the temperatures. I'm still thinking that for the areas favorable, there may be some light accumulations across portions of TN and across the northern portions of MS, AL and even GA stands a chance, and of course up across the Apps. Again, if such is desired, we need to see to it that this precipitation arrives earlier which will be much more acceptable since that would mean the precipitation will fall during the nighttime hours and with the additional cooling from the precipitation falling through the dry air (assuming it's enough), it should further allow a sufficient temperature profile to support anything frozen and last for a longer period of time. Course, this may take a while to saturate the air but eventually frozen precipitation will initiate and reach the surface. Not saying that is exactly what will play out but rather I am stating that is what the setup would have to be in order to pull this off, and honestly I do think this just may be the case as of now. It still doesn't look like much further east into the Carolinas but in the western sections, the further west you are the better the chance you have that you may see a few flakes and/or sleet pellets during the early morning (and yes I think even areas such the Charlotte metro region could see a brief period of it) but don't expect any accumulation and likely temperatures will warm to where it's drizzle or maybe just remaining cloudy since the moisture is forecasted to eventually break up or dry out as it attempts to push further into the Carolinas. What matters now is watching how that system behaves and how our temperatures are looking through the day today and into tonight. With that said, here is my thinking on how much snow could accumulate. Bear in mind, this will depend on a few things, such as precipitation rate, temperature, whether or not there is mixing present, precip. changes, etc. and thus can say that with any ice and/or rain can knock down totals on this map so try not to get too excited but as of now I feel confident enough to create this. Also make note that when I say up to an inch for the light blue area, I'm referring to anything from a trace to that mark so not everyone may see an inch but it's possible that a few spots can get there.
Snow Map:
As for the other system next week, tonight's runs have been very interesting with this one. The Canadian, for example, has this curving up and along the southern East Coast (though it begins to move off into the Atlantic after leaving the GA/SC borders) bombing as it does so to 999mb. Snow falls over parts of NC with some sleet further south and east of the state. On toward the Euro, it is still adamant on a southern slider-style kind of system and is actually a bit stronger than what it previously forecasted (1006mb) as it crosses northern FL with 850s a tad below freezing. However, while 2m temperatures are almost at that same point, it's not quite there but the model still insists on giving very light accumulations (appeared to be at least a dusting) for parts of NC/SC and then takes that system OTS. Definitely still worth watching and of course, this run made quite a northern trend with the storm but as we know, it is better to see these type of scenarios be more suppressed and then gradually see improvement the closer we get so hopefully this does not keeping trending into a more inland kind of system but I believe that it will keep that system south and then maybe we may see good trending of it becoming more coastal and stronger with slightly colder air to work with. Keep those fingers crossed!
0z CMC Precip Type:
Snow Map:
As for the other system next week, tonight's runs have been very interesting with this one. The Canadian, for example, has this curving up and along the southern East Coast (though it begins to move off into the Atlantic after leaving the GA/SC borders) bombing as it does so to 999mb. Snow falls over parts of NC with some sleet further south and east of the state. On toward the Euro, it is still adamant on a southern slider-style kind of system and is actually a bit stronger than what it previously forecasted (1006mb) as it crosses northern FL with 850s a tad below freezing. However, while 2m temperatures are almost at that same point, it's not quite there but the model still insists on giving very light accumulations (appeared to be at least a dusting) for parts of NC/SC and then takes that system OTS. Definitely still worth watching and of course, this run made quite a northern trend with the storm but as we know, it is better to see these type of scenarios be more suppressed and then gradually see improvement the closer we get so hopefully this does not keeping trending into a more inland kind of system but I believe that it will keep that system south and then maybe we may see good trending of it becoming more coastal and stronger with slightly colder air to work with. Keep those fingers crossed!
0z CMC Precip Type:
0z ECMWF:
Good blog! Found it via americanwx where I "lurk" for winter weather info. Thanks for putting things into terminology that is easy to understand for those of us who do not read models too well (yet). I used to live in Gastonia, but now reside in upstate SC. Glad to see how you include everyone, with the big picture. Thanks! :) ~Kim
ReplyDeleteThanks Kim :)! Glad to see folks like yourself enjoy what I post on here. As I stated on my most recent post, it's a shame that it did not turn out the way some of us were thinking in the snowy department for the folks back west but at least it was worth watching. Now here we are having a nervous breakdown for the upcoming threat but alas, such is the way of trying to forecast for an entire region of the U.S. With all the parts involved in this setup, it's no wonder models have swung from one direction to the next (and likely a few mets pulling their hair out).
DeleteAs for the Southern NC and just maybe the Upstate SC areas, this could trend just far enough south to get us into the snow game but we'll have to see. We have 2-3 days left before it arrives and again even on the day of the event, things can change so just hope and pray is all I can tell you. I will likely post an update either tonight or early tomorrow.