Thursday, April 28, 2011

The Madness is Over

Whew!  What a consecutive active number of days we've had with the departing storm system.  As expected, things were extremely busy yesterday and even through a part of last night kept some of us on our toes as the front finally pushed into the last few areas of the Southeast.  I'm very thankful that the squall line forecasted to develop and push into the Carolinas was not as strong as many of us had figured.  Places such as Charlotte were spared of what could have been strong straight-line winds, large hail, and/or possibly a spin up of a tornado.  The bigger line of storms was located further south near the west central SC border and even then that had eventually broke up some.  There was a supercell however that developed back in the mountains near Hendersonville and traveled northeastward toward Morgantan, with a tornado confirmed on the ground but no major damage since it was weak.  As for some or most of us that night, it was your average strong thunderstorm with wind gusts 50-60mph, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and small hail.  Our friends further east are experiencing slightly stronger storms since the front has timed itself to push through there during the day today.  As of this post, there was a tornado warning issued for Tyrrell and Washington counties, NC.

We should definitely have all of this cleared by tonight with some nice cool temperatures for lows.  Weekend looking a-okay throughout the Southeast.  No major severe weather expected to occur.  Just plenty of sunshine and warmth.  Hoping anyone hit by any of the tornadoes or damaging storms from yesterday are doing alright.  We can do without this event for a very long time.  This outbreak will be one for the books and be known throughout the years as one of the worst outbreaks ever to occur.  Last I checked, death toll is over 200 and counting as new confirmations come in.  Very tragic situation.  Just imagine if the warnings sent out from the weather offices, mets, or weather radios were not as frequent or heck if they were not as advanced, we could lost more....a lot more but our current technology allows us to get the folks informed of a dangerous weather situation and that's why people like myself are here to give you the latest on anything that comes up.  God bless you all and enjoy the rest of the day.  It's time for my brain to take a vacation...

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Dangerous Severe Weather Coming Up for the Southeast Part 2

What an extreme day it has been for the folks in the Arklatex region and parts of Western TN and Northern MS.  The system, as expected, has proven to be just as potent as ever during Tuesday with numerous tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings issued by the WFOs over there.  Reports of strong, long-tracked tornadoes, very large hail (one which was indicated to have a max size of 5"), very heavy rainfall, frequent deadly lightning, and of course strong gusty winds up to 70 mph and beyond.  Parameters were sky-high in some cases, such as the deep layer shear, CAPE, lift, etc; all indicating a significant severe weather threat for the areas mentioned.  This has since shifted further eastward and now we look to seeing the rest of TN, northern and central AL, northern GA to be affected throughout today during the afternoon and evening hours before finally crossing over into the Carolinas overnight and early Thursday.  I will summarize what is in store for the rest of the Southeast...

The trough involved will continue to progress eastward with the energy still holding strong as it rounds the base and actually strengthens some more pushing through the day today.  The associated surface low continues to deepen and will traverse northeastward toward the OV with the cold front advancing east through the Gulf States.  Latest guidance is suggesting a potentially slightly slower speed of the front, pushing the arrival for places such as the Carolinas until sometime between midnight and 4 am.  The flow ahead of the front will continue to pump in warm, moist air sufficient for pre-frontal convection ahead, which of course will mean dewpoints will be able to reach at least 70 considering the strength of this surge of southerly flow.  The interaction of the temperatures from the surface and aloft combined with the incoming powerful jet energy and attending trough will, once again, allow for highly favorable development of strong tornadoes with decent longevity.  There is also indication of a second area of flow from the Atlantic, which was responsible for yesterday's convection across eastern SC/NC (and extending somewhat further west as well) aided by a disturbance near Savannah, SC.  This airmass will also be pumping warm, moist flow into the Carolinas throughout the day Wednesday, so I can't rule out possible afternoon thunderstorms once more before the front arrives.

Moving on, today's parameters appear to be ominous, with extreme instability (values at least 3000), steep lapse rates, LI around -8 or more, EHI 1km +200 and 3km +300, just to name a few.  Just as how some of the stronger storms were moving quickly back west, it also appears that will be the case across the TN Valley and the parts of the Gulf Coast States. Considering their location within the warm sector, the threat for these super cells to sustain a longer life and become even more powerful is legit and will need to be watched carefully.  Eventually, the convective mode will shift to a more linear style (QLCS) as we progress through the night and into the early morning hours on Thursday, which very strong straight-line winds will be a primary threat for areas affected and large hail.  However, given the nature and history of this storm system, some embedded super cells will still likely be present with the squall line, despite the reduction of a major tornadic outbreak further east.  Winds could exceed 70 or 80 mph with potential 2 or 3 inch hail in this case.

This is possibly one of the strongest outbreaks I've ever seen, and the danger level of this situation is almost unbelievable.  If you have stayed tuned to the live streams from local mets across the Southeast, then you are already well aware of what these storms are capable of producing.  The one that caused 5 inch hail to fall is just one example of what I mean, and this most likely caused significant damage to vehicles, certain outdoor objects, and the environment itself.  If you don't have a weather radio yet and can afford to spend some money for such, DO IT NOW!  Likely a power outage will occur with the more significant storms and a weather radio at that point would help tremendously.  I hope everyone has already taken necessary precautions because I promise you all that will be one event to remember for this year and would be glad to hear about other folk's experiences while under the effects of these powerful storms.  Remember that you can always view your local weather station even without power if you own an iphone or other similar devices by going to their website (which was considered a fantastic idea by one met in particular from AR) and viewing their live coverage.  I wish you all good luck if you happen to be in the high risk that was issued for the Day 1 convective outlook and that everything turns out better than originally thought.  My prayers will be with you throughout the day.  God bless and please keep in touch with your family and friends.  Make sure that you know what to do if a tornado strikes you, and that goes for anyone who may happen to be at their job while this is occurring.  A solid plan is a good one and can be an ultimate life saver.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Dangerous Severe Weather Coming Up for the Southeast

Another nice day went by for Monday with temperatures in the 80s for highs with plenty of sunshine and a nice breeze.  Despite a few storms that fired up across parts of the NC mountains/northern foothills and back into northern GA, as well as a strong line that pushed through western TN earlier yesterday, all else was clear and the convection had eventually diminished later through the day.  Today should feature continuous warmth with possible afternoon thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong but these will be in a scattered variety and don't expect too much to occur at this point.  That threat doesn't come in until the Wednesday-Thursday period...

The major severe weather threat continuous to grow across the Southeast as the negatively-tilting trough progresses eastward with very strong jet energy present (winds greater than or equal to 100 kts. at the mid and upper levels) underneath the base of the trough.  Our advancing cold front in attendance with a deepening surface low will push through the Mid-South region, causing a great deal of a severe outbreak for MS, TN, AL, and even parts of GA through Wednesday afternoon/evening.  With strong moist flow out ahead in the warm sector, combined with strong instability, impressive shear, correct timing of the front, and the jet, it is not out of the question that this screams potential for rapid rotation of storms with numerous super cells and possibly spawning strong/long-tracked tornadoes across the Southeast, particularly the TN Valley where I fear the most for those folks since that threat is looking very ominous for them.  Alongside this threat is of course intense bowing causing widespread major wind damage and very large hail resulting from significantly favorable updraft with aid of steep lapse rates.  However, I don't expect the major tornadic threat to be the case for places such as most of GA and the Carolinas as the cold front is expected to swing through the rest of the region for the Weds. night-early Thurs. period, at which the storms will more likely be in the form of a QLCS kind of deal.  That threat should, as it appears now, diminish quickly once the front begins its departure from TN/AL.  This still does not eliminate the threat for embedded super cells, which in some cases can become strong despite a linear look of convection and therefore I suggest that no one drops their guard just because it will be night time (think of the 4/4-4/5 event).  The dynamics that we are dealing with here are the kind that can support severe storms through the night even after crossing the Appalachians, and this includes potential re-intensification east of there for the Carolinas sometime between midnight and 4am.  I fear that this event will be one that is significantly dangerous and should be taken seriously.  We may not be like the Plain States where tornadoes are common but this is our tornado season and any threat should be treated like a serious one.  Some or most of the loss of lives/injuries from NC's tornado outbreak during the 4/16 event resulted from some folks not seeking shelter or putting themselves in danger of a tornado.  I can't stress this enough that you need to be prepared.  A pattern like the one we're in now is not going to let up so easily without threatening us in some sort of extremely dangerous fashion, and this event is a prime example of it.  For the next few days, it's going to be a ride of a long and dangerous journey with Mother Nature.  As always, take care and stay safe.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Nice Weather for a Few Days. Major Severe System in the Making for the Mid Part of the Week

What a nice day it was on Saturday after experiencing dreary and chilly conditions on Friday with temperatures in the 70s for highs.  The wedge held on longer than forecasted and thus caused some areas in the CAD to remain cloudy and cool but eventually things broke apart and warmed up quickly with sunny skies and breezes.  Throughout today, we will begin to get things cooking with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, and I wouldn't be surprised if some folks in the Southeast hit 90.  We will continue this until sometime during Tuesday where thunderstorms could develop for the region.  The bigger focus, however, will be what's going on further west in the Arklatex region and parts of eastern OK through parts of the Gulf States and western/central TN during mid week...

For about the longest time now, the GFS, Euro, and recently the NAM are all showing what could be one of the nastiest setups for severe weather to occur so far this year with a very potent cold front and a rapidly deepening surface low.  A trough from the west will, once more, swing through the Central US and into the Eastern section with itself and the upper low tilting negative as it does so.  The combination of high instability, a strong LLJ, deep moist flow, very steep lapse rates, strong speed/directional shear, and of course other severe weather parameters will result in a major outbreak of severe storms firing during the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe.  This is a case where the situation is exceptionally dangerous and would be very wise to prepare early ahead of time.  It is a deal where the threat for super cells is very likely and of course given the setup, it will be an event featuring some or most of these cells to be strong, long-track tornadoes.  The indication by SREH, EHI, and looping hodographs supports this idea and therefore for anyone living from eastern OK to western TN and parts of the Gulf States should be on their guard.  The way I see this, it will not be nearly as bad once that front pushes further east into eastern TN/GA/Carolinas but could still threaten the areas with heavy rain, very gusty winds, large hail, and some embedded super cells.  Nonetheless, the pattern has been showing signs of a period where extremely active severe weather occurs and this week will be featuring just that (above all else so far this month).  Keep an eye on the modeling because as I have stated on the Americanwx forum, one wrong move on its part in the whole process can make this system easily turn out to not be as bad but the chance of that is decreasing with every new set of data that keeps coming in but still possible.  If you're one of the folks living in the areas that will be taking the brunt of this or know anyone out there who is a friend/family member, I recommend taking precaution immediately in case a strong tornado/powerful straight-line winds/very large hail does occur in your area.  It's not to say that I am declaring a major tornado outbreak (not yet at least), but rather there is potential for such and thus would be something to start keeping in mind for the early part of this week.  Better to be safe than sorry, they say.

For the sake of yourself, remember this: NEVER try to outrun a tornado or attempt to drive close to it for personal video/picture shots (like a few of these videos that I have seen showing such action by inexperienced folks).  Let the experts take care of that for you like your local professional storm chasers.  You can easily get lifted and thrown several yards in the distance or have large debris smash into you, which could result in a major injury or death and we do not want to see death totals rise due to such carelessness.  STAY AT HOME or head to a neighbor's more sturdy home (if it is) if you live in a trailer or shelter/strongly-reinforced building.  Caught on the road...find a ditch if there's one around and lie down.  Never go underneath an overpass, as it's been proven countless times that it is not as safe as everyone thinks. Have all essentials, including a weather radio (a must have), water, non-perishable food, batteries for the radio, a charged cell phone (if you own one), etc.  Do the usual and take cover the moment that the time comes to do so.  I would like it if everyone is able to make it out of this just fine.  Stay tuned for the ever-changing details of this event.    

Friday, April 22, 2011

A Wet Wintry-Like Day. Turning Over to Summer for Easter.

What a contrast when you look back at the recent high temperatures.  We went from 80s to 50s in one sitting for highs, and that's where most will be for those inside the wedge that's in place so it will be tough to even reach 60 degrees for most folks.  Rain will push through for a part of the day, making it rather dreary and will feel like one of those wet winter days where you really want to sleep more often (I cannot in this case since I have to work in a couple of hours).  The rain will go on for a while before beginning to taper off later on, opening up for a much better warmer and drier tomorrow after burning off the morning clouds/fog that may hang around.  I expect temperatures to soar into the upper 70s with mid to upper 80s during Easter so definitely worth a day's worth of waiting. 

Next week modeling is continuing to suggest a very potent system to push into the Southeast, dumping very heavy rain and the eruption of several severe thunderstorms.  A trough will eject from the west and as it does so an attending cold front will do the same and push directly eastward.  Low level moist flow with some instability and strong mid-level flow will be conducive for these storms to develop.  Shear values look decent enough for some of these severe cells to become tornadic as they cross the Arklatex/Southern Plains regions. If you are to believe the GFS, timing would be perfect for storms to form as the front pushes through GA and the Carolinas during the day Thursday; the afternoon being the period that this occurs so this will bear watching.  Per the HPC 5 day outlook, rain totals in places such as MO could near 10" once this is all said and done!  Man alive...Anyway, do what you can to enjoy the day and take care.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Calm for a While. More Showers and Thunderstorms During Late Week.

After the horrific event of the worst outbreak of tornadoes we've had in a very long time (1984 being the last time this kind of event happened), we are now experiencing much calmer conditions.  This should persist for today and Wednesday before the next front pushes in.  This one doesn't appear to be as vigorous as the one that we just had from the weekend but could still fire off some storms with a few being severe.  If anything, wind damage is the main concern rather than widespread supercellular development and/or large hail.  Just your typical severe thunderstorm threat this go around so nothing to be highly alarmed of unless you live further west near the Arklatex region or the Southern Plains, which will have their hands full on some nasty stuff since the dynamics are more powerful there.  It's something that they out west have grown accustomed to while we here in the Southeast freak out from just a few strong tornadoes spawning.  That's why they say to not let your guard down during Spring here, since this is our tornado season.  We will soon reach the usual pop-up afternoon thunderstorms around the time that temperatures remain in the 80s all the sudden, which will help keep rain totals in check for the next few months.  I pray that everyone will get through with the clean up process and have no issues further east in Eastern NC after the devastation that occurred.  This is something that you just don't see everyday, and has proven to rival that of 1984's outbreak (heck even out-do it a little)! Ma Nature always repeats history at some point, and so we were due for something horrible to occur regarding severe weather.  As always, stay safe and enjoy the day.  More later.   

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

A Break for a Few Days. ANOTHER Potential Severe Round Coming up for the Weekend

After being completely mentally exhausted for these past couple of days of severe weather watching, I finally managed to take a break and relax for the day.  The ULL kept things rather cool and cloudy for today reaching low to mid 60s for the most part while eastern sections of NC got in on some showers and thunderstorms due to the cold front that lingered for a part of the afternoon, which is now drifting off the East Coast.  High pressure will build back into the Southeast and keep things warm and dry again with temperatures ranging from low-mid 70s for most for the next three days before watching yet another front moving in from the west with a strong ULL tracking across the central states.  Unlike last night where lines of convection suddenly broke due to lack of instability (among other things), this go around might be a different story as the aid of that ULL will help enhance the main squall line and keep it intact after crossing GA, especially if we can pop another surface low in a favorable spot and potentially add on to more energy for the storms and also increase the chance for tornadic weather since directional shear would increase from the addition of southeasterly wind flow.  If the ULL cuts off correctly, the rain could really get enhanced for some folks who are needing it.  As of now, the tornado threat is minimal since winds appear to be dominantly out of the south during the time that the severe weather breaks out for Friday afternoon in the Mid-South but looks good for the early part of the day.  The severe threat translates eastward through the late evening and overnight hours of Friday into early Saturday.  A later shift in the timing of the whole system will further increase the severe risk since this would mean the convection breaks out during the afternoon for full effect of instability for places like the Carolinas (advantage of daytime vs. overnight/early morning) but right now, it appears wind damage and hail would be the main threats to watch for all areas expected to be threatened with such.  There's also the matter of how the pre-frontal trough positions itself and its timing, as well as other dynamics ahead of the front that can alter the expected outcome for the weekend.  Lots to watch for but the threat is legit and should not be taken lightly even at this point.

Behind that cold front, cooler temperatures will definitely make themselves noticeable as highs for some places may end up in the low 60s instead of 70s or 80s (how's that for a cool down) and becoming quite chilly at night with temperatures in the low-mid 40s (30s for the mountain folk).  Keep checking back for any updates and as always, take care.

Saturday, April 9, 2011

Severe Weather Imminent for the Southeast This Afternoon

By the looks of how things have been evolving for the past several hours, the severe threat is definitely in order for a good chunk of us. The event will occur during some time in the afternoon. There seems to be a MCV feature in the works that should progress eastward for the afternoon hours. The combination of sufficient forcing with the instability from daytime heating, strong shear, the strengthening of the low level jet and high lapse rate values nearing 8°C/KM (the NAM in particular indicating this) will all be present and should suffice to develop some powerful severe cells. Already this tells me that we could experience, once more, strong wind gusts around 60+mph (which should be the top threat) and large hail approaching 2" in diameter with aid of strong updraft in extreme cases. I don't really see too much in the way of super-cellular development occurring but some folks just might get in on something tornadic in the areas supportive of an environment featuring strong low-level convergence/ impressive 0-6km bulk shear. Fun stuff ahead indeed and this time it will be happening during the day!

Friday, April 8, 2011

Small Chance for Thunderstorms Today. Saturday Looking Potentially Severe

What was once going to be dry and sunny earlier this week now looks to be warm and stormy for some throughout the day tomorrow.  Today we will most likely see sunny conditions persist throughout the region for a part of today before the clouds move in.  There could be a few storms trying to develop though so we cannot rule that out.  Eventually for tomorrow, a front will back its way into the Carolinas and act as a mechanism to fire off storm development.  We will have moderate levels of instability and healthy shear to work with, which will aid in producing some severe cells and possibly a few being tornadic in spots.  Not looking for a major widespread kind of deal like early Tuesday morning but nonetheless, it bears watching on radar if you're at home.  We should see the storms begin to erupt sometime in the afternoon period and last throughout the evening before the boundary associated with this begins to pull away for Sunday.  Temperatures for the next 3-4 days will feature around 80-upper 80s for high with Sunday being the warmest.  There could potentially be some folks hitting 90 somewhere across the Southeast the further south you go!  Just keep in check with your local news or online at a weather website for more details.  It could be a long and busy day tomorrow...

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Southeast Gets Rocked and Rolled by Severe Weather

I don't think words could describe the intensity of the storminess that rolled through the region last night.  Straight-line winds were widespread in such a large fashion with peak gusts of 70-90mph!  This resulted in damage to trees, powerlines, outdoor objects (including things like my garbage can and grill), etc.  You would almost think that you were experiencing a weak category 1 hurricane at some point with the wind-driven heavy rain and sustained high wind speeds.  All of this was thanks to two things:  One being the cold front remaining intact instead of completely falling apart like some tend to do once they cross the Appalachians and the other reason being the major support that it got from the secondary low that developed which the Euro did a fantastic job of picking up on that feature.  This further enhances the upper level dynamics that were currently in play and thus strengthened the squall line as it pushed in the Carolinas and also increased the tornadic threat since this affected the winds aloft and re-orientates them in different directions for possible rotation to occur with certain cells.  Thankfully there wasn't much in the way of tornadic action across here in the Carolinas but some did managed to sneak in, including one that affected Henderson and Cawtaba counties but nothing too major to speak of.  Even as the squall line past, lightning and heavy rain still lingered with some loud boomers in the mix and impressive light shows to be displayed.  A very interesting night to say the least.

We will remain clear of any stormy fashion for the rest of this week as well as warm up a good bit especially toward the weekend where temperatures could reach the mid to upper 80s for highs across the Southeast! Whew quite a swelter of heat indeed for this time of year but it certainly isn't 90° heat.  Next chance of showers and storms looks to be on during sometime on Monday next week (deja vu anyone?).  Be sure to check on your family and friends to see if they're alright.  Take care.

Monday, April 4, 2011

Quiet Throughout the Day. Active Night Setting Up Later.

It's awfully difficult to believe that some strong to severe storms will be rolling through the area for the more eastern sections of the Southeast with all the sunshine we are currently experiencing.  Temperatures are already around 80; a tad higher in spots as of this post.  Things should stay this way for the rest of the afternoon until we progress through the evening hours where clouds will build up ahead of the cold front signifying the anticipated arrival of showers and storms for Monday night through a part of Tuesday.  It is possible that another line of convection could develop ahead of the main line so keep that in mind if you are one of the folks continuously watching the radar.  The threat for tornadoes is still there despite what the recent model trends have been showing and would suggest preparing yourself if you are in the path of the super cells that do develop and cross your area.  Have all essentials with you (water, non-perishable food, flashlight, batteries, and the ever important weather radio if you own one).  I HIGHLY suggest that you get it if you do not, and have your manager at your job in possession of one as well in case of a dangerous weather situation during the workday.  This goes for churches, dining buildings, and other places that normally don't have one of these.  They are a life saver and you will be surprised how attached you'll become once you begin to make good use of it.  Have a good day and stay safe!

Friday, April 1, 2011

A Quiet Weekend. An Active Tuesday.

After experiencing several days of dreary weather, the sun finally made its appearance for today with highs ranging from the low to mid 50s for parts of the Carolinas.  We should continue this warm up throughout the weekend and yes, remaining dry for the most part into a part of Monday.  Get out and enjoy it while you can because things will eventually become extremely active across the Southeast...

Regarding Tuesday of next week, modeling is still suggesting a severe weather outbreak for much of the region.  The threat for heavy winds, large damaging hail, frequent CG and CC lightning and yes, tornadoes are all a part of the threats that are possible with this event even across the Charlotte area.  This highly dynamic setup yields a classic severe storm development since we have the following factors: High shear, a rapidly deepening surface low pressure, a strong low level jet, an abundance of Gulf moisture, a sharp and vigorous upper level trough, etc. just to name a few.  We cannot pinpoint the exact location of where tornadoes will develop but generally the Southeast as a whole is under the threat for such activity.  Keep tuning in to your local channels, my blog, or check up on the "American Weather Forums" for more information regarding this event.  Lots of details to iron out between now and later but I will certainly keep an eye on things as we progress through the weekend.

By the way, the event being progged for next week is strangely around the same time of the April 3-4 of 1974 Super Outbreak.  Please DO NOT take this as my way of saying that we will see a redux of this event, as I don't think such a threat will be present this go around with this setup but during that time, it too featured several tornadoes developing among the rest of the severe storms that fired up throughout those days.  For those of you not familiar with this, check out the link here: http://www.april31974.com/The_storm.html 
This year will mark the 37th Anniversary of that event.

Take care and enjoy the weekend!