Well folks. The madness of the weather that was 2011 is now a memory as we jump into January 2012. Yesterday felt pretty nice with low to mid 60s for highs across some locations in the Southeast. Definitely not December-like and the first day of January will be the same, except I expect highs to push mid 60s to maybe 70. However, don't get used to that as it will be in, out, and gone as a significant push of colder air invades the region.
This is going to make the air substantially colder by as much as 30 degrees during the day Tuesday compared to today's highs! Highs may not get above freezing OUTSIDE the Apps even down into the Charlotte area in NC. This reminds me of a time during the previous January where here in Gastonia the high only touched 32 despite full sunshine but this go around it may be somewhere in the upper 20s. Factor in the winds associated with this, which will be quite gusty, and you have bone-chilling wind chill readings across the high country, making it feel much worse to be outside. I mentioned in one of my previous posts that with the cold air bottled up so far north, when it arrives it will make itself known, and that is exactly what's going to pan out. Do bundle up if you plan to head out that day. We then slowly moderate as the weekend approaches as highs get back into the 50s again but that should not last for too long either as yet it looks like another cold shot moves in but don't expect it to be as strong as the one currently approaching us.
One thing I will mention is during the arrival of this airmass, there is a chance sometime during a part of Monday into early Tuesday that places east of the Apps could see some flurries. Nothing significant but there could be flakes flying somewhere so don't be surprised if you happen to see some. It looks to be short-lived though. This will be thanks to 5H shortwave energy that crosses the area associated with the trough. A nice surprise if it occurs. We'll see. To think earlier this was forecasted to be a decent winter storm, then nothing at all, and now possibly flurries and as you can see, this just proves that you can't focus on one particular model, even if it stays consistent with a solution more often than not. Such is the life of model drama...
6z NAM 500mb Vorticity at 54 hr.:
Beyond the next weekend, if you were following the 0z runs of the GFS and Euro, we potentially have some interesting times ahead after the first week of January with the first threat around the 9th-10th and a VERY significant fantasy-style storm around the 18th. That storm in particular shows +20 inch snow totals in the western sections of NC/SC but it's all the way at the end so it has a very slim chance of verifying but it goes back to what I also said earlier, which is that this winter holds potential for one major snowstorm during this month or the following two up to mid-March given the pattern. The Euro at the end of its run shows a nice cut-off that develops in the Arklatex area during the same period as the first storm from the GFS so definitely looking interesting. Right now, we need to get through this massive cold shot first before considering what the models try to depict afterwards. I suspect lots of waffling but this month, so far, looks promising for more cold and better wintry chances. Whether we get favorable blocking to develop or not remains but it would be a huge step if it happens. Winter's not over yet folks.
0z 384 hr. Snow Total:
This is going to make the air substantially colder by as much as 30 degrees during the day Tuesday compared to today's highs! Highs may not get above freezing OUTSIDE the Apps even down into the Charlotte area in NC. This reminds me of a time during the previous January where here in Gastonia the high only touched 32 despite full sunshine but this go around it may be somewhere in the upper 20s. Factor in the winds associated with this, which will be quite gusty, and you have bone-chilling wind chill readings across the high country, making it feel much worse to be outside. I mentioned in one of my previous posts that with the cold air bottled up so far north, when it arrives it will make itself known, and that is exactly what's going to pan out. Do bundle up if you plan to head out that day. We then slowly moderate as the weekend approaches as highs get back into the 50s again but that should not last for too long either as yet it looks like another cold shot moves in but don't expect it to be as strong as the one currently approaching us.
One thing I will mention is during the arrival of this airmass, there is a chance sometime during a part of Monday into early Tuesday that places east of the Apps could see some flurries. Nothing significant but there could be flakes flying somewhere so don't be surprised if you happen to see some. It looks to be short-lived though. This will be thanks to 5H shortwave energy that crosses the area associated with the trough. A nice surprise if it occurs. We'll see. To think earlier this was forecasted to be a decent winter storm, then nothing at all, and now possibly flurries and as you can see, this just proves that you can't focus on one particular model, even if it stays consistent with a solution more often than not. Such is the life of model drama...
6z NAM 500mb Vorticity at 54 hr.:
Beyond the next weekend, if you were following the 0z runs of the GFS and Euro, we potentially have some interesting times ahead after the first week of January with the first threat around the 9th-10th and a VERY significant fantasy-style storm around the 18th. That storm in particular shows +20 inch snow totals in the western sections of NC/SC but it's all the way at the end so it has a very slim chance of verifying but it goes back to what I also said earlier, which is that this winter holds potential for one major snowstorm during this month or the following two up to mid-March given the pattern. The Euro at the end of its run shows a nice cut-off that develops in the Arklatex area during the same period as the first storm from the GFS so definitely looking interesting. Right now, we need to get through this massive cold shot first before considering what the models try to depict afterwards. I suspect lots of waffling but this month, so far, looks promising for more cold and better wintry chances. Whether we get favorable blocking to develop or not remains but it would be a huge step if it happens. Winter's not over yet folks.
0z 384 hr. Snow Total:
0z Euro 500mb 240 hr:
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