Yesterday was quite interesting regarding the storms that fired off during the afternoon and early evening. If you happened to live across the Carolinas toward the western half and portions of north GA and southern TN, we had strong and isolated severe storms that developed with hail and winds (as anticipated). Of course, we also had the one that formed in Spartanburg county and that quickly became a tornadic cell that eventually made several areas northeast of it be put underneath a tornado warning and on up into a portion of Ellenboro, NC. Reports of certain structures collapsed, several trees down, and a few injuries came in as that storm raced through the Hickory area after departing from Forest City. I will admit I only anticipated that with any rotating storm that the potential existed for a brief quick spin up of a tornado but this one proved to be more dangerous than forecasted. Then again, you can never be fully confident on how strong these tornadoes can get once they get going since there are a lot that is in play, and today provided a nice example. It was all about elevated convection with the low-topped thunderstorms that include strong upper-level dynamics and so despite surface temperatures being relatively cool, the strong/severe threat still kicked in. Even folks in the mid 40s saw some rough storm action up toward the mountain communities (Wilkes county, NC was one of them). Now I will also admit that this wasn't as big of a deal as I had feared earlier but it did not put a stop to some folks seeing around quarter-inch hail and winds greater than 60 mph, which by the way the cluster that contained the tornadic cell became a mini-bowing line with 70 mph peak wind gust. Terrible stuff. This is suppose to be January, correct?
Here's a shot of it when it was within the vicinity of Ellenboro:
That made headline news for the evening as several storm spotters/chasers went out to investigate this storm. Lots of coverage went on with this cell as it continued on its course with the couplet holding strong for quite a while; longer than I imagined. Scary stuff indeed with this storm and it even went out of its way to cause some people to be trapped in their own homes. Bad way to start off 2012...
The ULL responsible for this action today will continue to trek away from our region but because it has stayed more on an easterly track before heading up the Apps than what modeling suggested and with the front pushing through the Carolinas, gusty winds look to be the conditions for the overnight hours for some and it appears to continue through the day Thursday. Interesting to note that recent short-range modeling suggesting, perhaps, some flurries could be possible across the Upper portion of the Southeast during the nighttime hours Thursday into early Friday morning with the next incoming shortwave. Nothing significant but there may be some flakes flying in spots but it will be hard-pressed to get anything east of the Apps. However, there have been instances where moisture, under the right kind of flow, is available on the other side and puts downs quite a bit of flakes, enough for even an inch or two (ala Dec. 4-5 2010 event) but not betting on a scenario like that for now. It would be in, out, and gone just like any other clipper (hence their name) for the NC folks.
The model madness continues with tonight's runs of both the GFS and Euro showing much different solutions than what has been showing consistently. For the GFS, it had quite a warm look for much of the U.S. with no real troughing or ridging (zonal flow) but it has now decided to, once more, flip flop back to a colder look despite a few warm days thrown into the mix and teasing us with a system around Day 6 but it stays suppressed. Meanwhile the Euro about a week from now wants to develop a nice -NAO with much warming over Greenland, which is very good news but it does not have the Alaskan block in a good spot (ridging is further west as opposed to being over AK) so the cold air never really dives south and east and instead stays mostly in Western Canada with the vortex. I think there is plenty of room for improvement in the long run but it also leaves room for this to quickly disappear so don't get excited yet but these were good runs for tonight. We'll see if it continues and it proves my point: Living and dying by models won't get you anywhere except down a path of frustration. They are merely tools used to aid in forecasting, not the be-all, end-all. It is after all called Meteorology, not "Modelology." Can't stress that enough.
Take care all and keep the hope alive. We are bound to get something out of this season sometime sooner or later as it stands now.
This radar image was taken right around the time that the tornado warning was placed:
That made headline news for the evening as several storm spotters/chasers went out to investigate this storm. Lots of coverage went on with this cell as it continued on its course with the couplet holding strong for quite a while; longer than I imagined. Scary stuff indeed with this storm and it even went out of its way to cause some people to be trapped in their own homes. Bad way to start off 2012...
The ULL responsible for this action today will continue to trek away from our region but because it has stayed more on an easterly track before heading up the Apps than what modeling suggested and with the front pushing through the Carolinas, gusty winds look to be the conditions for the overnight hours for some and it appears to continue through the day Thursday. Interesting to note that recent short-range modeling suggesting, perhaps, some flurries could be possible across the Upper portion of the Southeast during the nighttime hours Thursday into early Friday morning with the next incoming shortwave. Nothing significant but there may be some flakes flying in spots but it will be hard-pressed to get anything east of the Apps. However, there have been instances where moisture, under the right kind of flow, is available on the other side and puts downs quite a bit of flakes, enough for even an inch or two (ala Dec. 4-5 2010 event) but not betting on a scenario like that for now. It would be in, out, and gone just like any other clipper (hence their name) for the NC folks.
The model madness continues with tonight's runs of both the GFS and Euro showing much different solutions than what has been showing consistently. For the GFS, it had quite a warm look for much of the U.S. with no real troughing or ridging (zonal flow) but it has now decided to, once more, flip flop back to a colder look despite a few warm days thrown into the mix and teasing us with a system around Day 6 but it stays suppressed. Meanwhile the Euro about a week from now wants to develop a nice -NAO with much warming over Greenland, which is very good news but it does not have the Alaskan block in a good spot (ridging is further west as opposed to being over AK) so the cold air never really dives south and east and instead stays mostly in Western Canada with the vortex. I think there is plenty of room for improvement in the long run but it also leaves room for this to quickly disappear so don't get excited yet but these were good runs for tonight. We'll see if it continues and it proves my point: Living and dying by models won't get you anywhere except down a path of frustration. They are merely tools used to aid in forecasting, not the be-all, end-all. It is after all called Meteorology, not "Modelology." Can't stress that enough.
Take care all and keep the hope alive. We are bound to get something out of this season sometime sooner or later as it stands now.
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