It has certainly been out of touch with January as temperatures yesterday were quite warm; an unbelievable 70 for a high during mid-winter in some spots. Who would have thought we would be seeing highs like that when, climatologically speaking, it should be the coldest part of the winter (let alone the whole year)? We even managed to have some folks get in on some thunderstorm action, some of which were conducive for small hail and plenty of lightning. This would be more of what I expect toward the Spring and Summer months but eh it's the Southeast. Such is to be expected when dealing with plenty of warmth and a disturbance that produces such activity. For the latter part of today, I suspect another chance of rain as the cold front drapes and stalls around the NC/SC border with yet another disturbance to traverse through the region with a chance for more showers and a few thunderstorms if just enough instability is present during the afternoon.
Temperatures will remain in a range from the 50s to around 70 for the early part of this week as we have yet another system to watch, which will bring more rain for much of our region. We can't rule out, however, that given the predicted features of the atmosphere by the modeling we may have to contend with a bit of storminess, some of which could result on the strong, perhaps severe side of things. This may need to be watched carefully for we will be dealing with a nice healthy cut-off involving strong upper-level dynamics, a rich 700mb moist look, and good low-level warm flow. Best bet would be strong winds, lightning, and perhaps some hail (similar to yesterday's storms except a tad stronger). There is some indication that given the strong indication of shear a few of the cells could rotate and spin up a weak brief tornado. Definitely does not look or sound anything like winter around here but that is what appears to be the case for the Wednesday timeframe. This system will push out of here for the second portion of the week as a cold front will drop across the Southeast. Consequently, this is going to make things a lot chillier as highs could get knocked back into the 40s for some from Thursday to at least the weekend with 50s elsewhere. In fact, some places such as Nashville may not break 40 assuming the air mass is strong enough but for now will go for at least low 40s for the TN folks.
We turn our attention toward the longer range from the last portion of the upcoming weekend and beyond. Guidance is still suggesting a pattern change of some sort for the Southeast during the mid-month period as they have suggested at least a good bit of ridging in the West, allowing troughing to set up shop over the East. Meanwhile, we appear to see a blocking scenario that develops in Alaska with ridging and displacing that pesky vortex further south while another area of interest (Greenland) will also appear to have ridging somewhere in the vicinity. The two combined will act as mechanisms to push the colder air from the far north (way up there in Northern Canada) much further south and with so many systems to still watch while this is happening, it would likely suggest our first real potential LEGIT threat for something wintry somewhere down the road. The motion of those shortwaves, timing on both their part and the cold air, when, where, and how the flow behaves, etc. all remain in question. We may get one big event with a well-placed and strong cut-off or maybe a surface feature tracks correctly with the cold air already in place or rushing behind it right quick for a rain to snow scenario or we end up busting on the bad side (be it cold and dry, slightly warmer than advertised, etc.). The blocking that models such as the GFS showed on its 0z run is a good example of a fantastic setup for the Southeast and with a more southerly storm track and plenty of cold air, one can only assume that one of the systems will produce nicely. For the upcoming weekend, there is yet another system that may be the first real winter threat should everything move in correctly (though it never quite makes it but oh so close). We can't be sure if we see things pan out in our favor with that one (could easily poof) but the further we push on through this month, the more likely it becomes that cold and snow will be realized for the Southeast. My only concern with all of this is the waiting portion and as with such patience, you have to expect the continuation of waffling on the models whether they move one or more particular features into an unfavorable spot, lose it altogether, etc. so it still leaves room for error somewhere. The good news is that this has been forecasted consistently and the longer it holds, the more likely that it should be taken into account, as well as getting closer to verification. Should it all come together at the right time, I believe our patience will pay off VERY well. Will it happen we just don't know but right now I like our chances and so winter isn't all gloom and doom just yet. Just sit back, enjoy the ride, and keep watching to see if this potential continues to increase.
Temperatures will remain in a range from the 50s to around 70 for the early part of this week as we have yet another system to watch, which will bring more rain for much of our region. We can't rule out, however, that given the predicted features of the atmosphere by the modeling we may have to contend with a bit of storminess, some of which could result on the strong, perhaps severe side of things. This may need to be watched carefully for we will be dealing with a nice healthy cut-off involving strong upper-level dynamics, a rich 700mb moist look, and good low-level warm flow. Best bet would be strong winds, lightning, and perhaps some hail (similar to yesterday's storms except a tad stronger). There is some indication that given the strong indication of shear a few of the cells could rotate and spin up a weak brief tornado. Definitely does not look or sound anything like winter around here but that is what appears to be the case for the Wednesday timeframe. This system will push out of here for the second portion of the week as a cold front will drop across the Southeast. Consequently, this is going to make things a lot chillier as highs could get knocked back into the 40s for some from Thursday to at least the weekend with 50s elsewhere. In fact, some places such as Nashville may not break 40 assuming the air mass is strong enough but for now will go for at least low 40s for the TN folks.
We turn our attention toward the longer range from the last portion of the upcoming weekend and beyond. Guidance is still suggesting a pattern change of some sort for the Southeast during the mid-month period as they have suggested at least a good bit of ridging in the West, allowing troughing to set up shop over the East. Meanwhile, we appear to see a blocking scenario that develops in Alaska with ridging and displacing that pesky vortex further south while another area of interest (Greenland) will also appear to have ridging somewhere in the vicinity. The two combined will act as mechanisms to push the colder air from the far north (way up there in Northern Canada) much further south and with so many systems to still watch while this is happening, it would likely suggest our first real potential LEGIT threat for something wintry somewhere down the road. The motion of those shortwaves, timing on both their part and the cold air, when, where, and how the flow behaves, etc. all remain in question. We may get one big event with a well-placed and strong cut-off or maybe a surface feature tracks correctly with the cold air already in place or rushing behind it right quick for a rain to snow scenario or we end up busting on the bad side (be it cold and dry, slightly warmer than advertised, etc.). The blocking that models such as the GFS showed on its 0z run is a good example of a fantastic setup for the Southeast and with a more southerly storm track and plenty of cold air, one can only assume that one of the systems will produce nicely. For the upcoming weekend, there is yet another system that may be the first real winter threat should everything move in correctly (though it never quite makes it but oh so close). We can't be sure if we see things pan out in our favor with that one (could easily poof) but the further we push on through this month, the more likely it becomes that cold and snow will be realized for the Southeast. My only concern with all of this is the waiting portion and as with such patience, you have to expect the continuation of waffling on the models whether they move one or more particular features into an unfavorable spot, lose it altogether, etc. so it still leaves room for error somewhere. The good news is that this has been forecasted consistently and the longer it holds, the more likely that it should be taken into account, as well as getting closer to verification. Should it all come together at the right time, I believe our patience will pay off VERY well. Will it happen we just don't know but right now I like our chances and so winter isn't all gloom and doom just yet. Just sit back, enjoy the ride, and keep watching to see if this potential continues to increase.
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