It was yet another cool and cloudy day for some across the Southeast yesterday while others got in on the rain with some thunderstorms thrown into the mix. A few of those got a bit of an attitude back across parts of the Gulf Coast states (even now there are still some over there dropping a bit of small hail and producing brief gusty winds). I expect that to be today's story as that system continues to march on, bringing that slug of moisture and storminess for the folks further east across much of GA and the Carolinas for today. For now, we have scattered showers spreading over parts of the Carolinas and GA for the early morning period.
It still does not, however, completely eliminate the threat for any of those storms to become quite strong or severe over toward the areas I mentioned. As of latest analysis, the shear still looks strong with the current line that's in place along the attending cold front and as it heads due northeast, these storms are capable of producing more strong gusty winds and of course this includes the chance for a quick spin up of a weak tornado given rotation potential with any of these storms. Take note that because of the timing of which this line in particular arrives and pushes in, chances of anything severe are kind of low but don't be surprised if you are underneath one of the nastier ones.
There is, unfortunately, another round that may come into play as the low itself pushes closer to the Carolina region and given the upper dynamics in play, this line could also be dangerous with possibly better chances for hail and strong winds taking into account of the track of the system itself and so this would be more for those generally anywhere across the western section of the Carolinas, northern GA and eastern TN later in the day since they will be within the dynamics but I will go ahead and say places just due east need to keep a watch on this too just in case. It should be noted that with that batch of precipitation, rainfall will be quite heavy and for the folks across the NC Apps, flooding may be possible so keep an eye out on the creeks and streams up there. Currently there are areal flood watches issued for the mountain locations. I will explain it in the next section.
Going over specifics of this setup, we have indication of strong upper divergence of the jet with rising air due to low level WAA (warm air advection) and of course with given the track of that system and its flow, there will also be air that gets forced up the eastern slopes (or SE upslope flow), which is responsible for those watches being issued for the heavy downpours that could occur. Alongside all of this, we need to watch throughout the day how the parameters shape up as the system gets closer. Instability is questionable since we have some data saying that there may be more available while others keep it in check and only provides little support from it but I'd take a blend of the two and say that it will be just enough to give a bit of hand to the storms. Shear remains strong it appears with the low-level jet that looks to set up shop over the piedmont locations of NC/SC, which supports the strong wind idea. We will see how bad it gets but right now anyone's game for this, even way out into the eastern areas of the Carolinas despite being further away from the system.
Behind that system and the cold front, drier air will invade and clear out things completely throughout the day tomorrow but much chillier air will spill in with it and it's still looking like some areas could stay in the 40s for highs over the course of the weekend after that air settles in. Winds will kick up a bit as that front swings through during the nighttime hours tomorrow and into Friday. We get in one more warm day during Thursday so make use of it if you don't enjoy staying out in the chilly air.
Now then, as for what may lie ahead for next week, modeling still doesn't have a clue about what may (or may not) happen during that time. Latest run from the GFS, which completely erased the snowy hit that was suggested a few runs back a few days ago, now says that we have a minor CAD event shaping up with cold air that manages to makes it way down toward the Carolinas and precipitation spreading over it (albeit light). This has the appearance of the formation of a bit of snow but it also throws in freezing rain in the mix. Nothing major but a tad interesting to note from this run. We'll see if that continues (odds as of now are not due to the flip-flopping of this cursed model) but who knows. On and it off it seems to be with the 14th-18th period ever since New Years. There was a lot of cliff diving after we lost the snowy hit but keep in mind: NOTHING IS CERTAIN. Meteorology will always feature that when dealing with unpredictable systems, especially those that develop during winter and even moreso when it involves the Southeast but alas that's our luck. Just have to keep watch on anything is all I can really tell you. This can either become a surprise event or nothing at all. Simple as that.
Well that should do it for tonight. Hopefully the severe threat doesn't grow too much but hey if you are a believer of that old wives tale (thunder in winter; snow 7-10 days later), you may be rooting for it haha. I'll admit my guilt with that for I believe in it as well, though there has been proof that the relation does exist, albeit it's 70% of the time so it is not always guaranteed (don't hold me to that percentage by the way). Anyway, thanks for reading and take care.
By the way, if you have not noticed it yet, I have included TWC's radar onto my blog. They show the different precipitation types unlike the previous radar and looks neater IMO. A tad huge but works nicely nonetheless especially now that I fixed it to display correctly on here. That will make for easily tracking something while you happen to be visiting my blog.
It still does not, however, completely eliminate the threat for any of those storms to become quite strong or severe over toward the areas I mentioned. As of latest analysis, the shear still looks strong with the current line that's in place along the attending cold front and as it heads due northeast, these storms are capable of producing more strong gusty winds and of course this includes the chance for a quick spin up of a weak tornado given rotation potential with any of these storms. Take note that because of the timing of which this line in particular arrives and pushes in, chances of anything severe are kind of low but don't be surprised if you are underneath one of the nastier ones.
There is, unfortunately, another round that may come into play as the low itself pushes closer to the Carolina region and given the upper dynamics in play, this line could also be dangerous with possibly better chances for hail and strong winds taking into account of the track of the system itself and so this would be more for those generally anywhere across the western section of the Carolinas, northern GA and eastern TN later in the day since they will be within the dynamics but I will go ahead and say places just due east need to keep a watch on this too just in case. It should be noted that with that batch of precipitation, rainfall will be quite heavy and for the folks across the NC Apps, flooding may be possible so keep an eye out on the creeks and streams up there. Currently there are areal flood watches issued for the mountain locations. I will explain it in the next section.
Going over specifics of this setup, we have indication of strong upper divergence of the jet with rising air due to low level WAA (warm air advection) and of course with given the track of that system and its flow, there will also be air that gets forced up the eastern slopes (or SE upslope flow), which is responsible for those watches being issued for the heavy downpours that could occur. Alongside all of this, we need to watch throughout the day how the parameters shape up as the system gets closer. Instability is questionable since we have some data saying that there may be more available while others keep it in check and only provides little support from it but I'd take a blend of the two and say that it will be just enough to give a bit of hand to the storms. Shear remains strong it appears with the low-level jet that looks to set up shop over the piedmont locations of NC/SC, which supports the strong wind idea. We will see how bad it gets but right now anyone's game for this, even way out into the eastern areas of the Carolinas despite being further away from the system.
Behind that system and the cold front, drier air will invade and clear out things completely throughout the day tomorrow but much chillier air will spill in with it and it's still looking like some areas could stay in the 40s for highs over the course of the weekend after that air settles in. Winds will kick up a bit as that front swings through during the nighttime hours tomorrow and into Friday. We get in one more warm day during Thursday so make use of it if you don't enjoy staying out in the chilly air.
Now then, as for what may lie ahead for next week, modeling still doesn't have a clue about what may (or may not) happen during that time. Latest run from the GFS, which completely erased the snowy hit that was suggested a few runs back a few days ago, now says that we have a minor CAD event shaping up with cold air that manages to makes it way down toward the Carolinas and precipitation spreading over it (albeit light). This has the appearance of the formation of a bit of snow but it also throws in freezing rain in the mix. Nothing major but a tad interesting to note from this run. We'll see if that continues (odds as of now are not due to the flip-flopping of this cursed model) but who knows. On and it off it seems to be with the 14th-18th period ever since New Years. There was a lot of cliff diving after we lost the snowy hit but keep in mind: NOTHING IS CERTAIN. Meteorology will always feature that when dealing with unpredictable systems, especially those that develop during winter and even moreso when it involves the Southeast but alas that's our luck. Just have to keep watch on anything is all I can really tell you. This can either become a surprise event or nothing at all. Simple as that.
Well that should do it for tonight. Hopefully the severe threat doesn't grow too much but hey if you are a believer of that old wives tale (thunder in winter; snow 7-10 days later), you may be rooting for it haha. I'll admit my guilt with that for I believe in it as well, though there has been proof that the relation does exist, albeit it's 70% of the time so it is not always guaranteed (don't hold me to that percentage by the way). Anyway, thanks for reading and take care.
By the way, if you have not noticed it yet, I have included TWC's radar onto my blog. They show the different precipitation types unlike the previous radar and looks neater IMO. A tad huge but works nicely nonetheless especially now that I fixed it to display correctly on here. That will make for easily tracking something while you happen to be visiting my blog.
severe storms? with temps in the low 50s for Upstate ... get a grip
ReplyDeleteAW
You do not necessarily need such warm temperatures for severe weather. When you have dynamics like the ones that are currently in play/developing, these storms can still reach strong-severe status. This is especially true when you have low cape (little instability due to limited heating) but high shear and with that (amongst other things) these storms can attain characteristics of such. It has happened plenty of times in the past. In this scenario, you have elevated convection working its magic so the threat still remains. The question is how big will it be and what will be featured.
ReplyDeleteI like your optimism, unfortunately, CIN and bad timing argue against storms in Upstate SC
ReplyDelete=AW
Well you have to stay on the safe side when dealing with a situation like this. As I mentioned, the threat could not be eliminated altogether and from what I've gathered from so folks so far today (up until now) across north GA, southern TN, and even through areas of NC/SC, there were some pretty nasty storms, a few of which did indeed produced a good bit of hail and/or strong winds despite the cool air in place. Some will get hit; others not. Never guaranteed it for everyone but it was still important to keep watch.
ReplyDelete