Back in the saddle again after much work and will be able to update again. I apologize for not being so active for the past week.
Severe weather continues to be an absolute menace to our friends back west across MS, parts of TN and AL as a strong cold front pushes eastward carrying with it continuous threats for strong/severe thunderstorms with a few embedded tornadoes. Looking at some of the hodographs earlier, they were very scary looking and would suggest significant shear to aid in the spin ups. Despite it being the late night/early morning period, the line still holds strong and will threaten areas further east later on. Hopefully anyone over there has been keeping an eye on it.
Severe threat should diminish some as it gets closer to the Carolinas and GA, though I won't rule out that a few of any of the storms that do develop could get a bit of an attitude. The latest from SPC issued a slight risk for portions of AL and GA up to around the Southern Apps, which fits my idea of where the best area of storms could set up. Greatest threat appears to be strong gusty winds with any storm so we will need to watch that for some folks. There may be an isolated tornado or two to watch but I don't think anything like what is currently going on will be the case thankfully, as the trend has been to weaken the storms to a less aggressive level as it stands now.
From the looks of things throughout this week, there appears to be plenty of shower and storm chances to go around for much of us but ranges from about 40% to 70% so not everyone may get in on the rain. Not looking at a major washout nearly everyday for everyone but it could remain damp if the showers and storms materialize as indicated. We may be able to squeeze in at least two dry days though before we get through the rest of this week. As far as temperatures go, it appears that they may (keyword "may") finally get onto the warm side with a general range of upper 50s to even upper 60s at some point but I do think that we only stay like this for a while before cooling off again as we close out the month and get into February. Looking back at the previous runs of the modeling for the last few days of the previous week into the early part of this week, highs were advertised to be much warmer than what actually verified. In fact, for my area, I have went 5 days in a row below what was forecasted with 40s being the readings and yesterday getting stuck in the mid-upper 30s thanks to a CAD that settled into place. Just goes to show how influential those setups can be on our temperatures despite what you hear from the local mets or even from your NWS office in some instances. With clouds and rain consistently in place, it prevented the warmth but that now looks to finally rear its head into view for this week. We'll see how warm we really get with our highs but that is how it appears judging by the data. Of course, I am not solely forecasting from just the modeling, as it has been said many times that nothing is set in stone with them and that there are other things that can just as easily influence our temperatures so we may see cooler readings than expected.
Also, if you have not seen my post on Americanwx yet, I will repost on here about my thoughts on how things could turn out for the rest of the season:
"I think I speak for mostly everyone when I say that honestly it's anything goes at this point. Modeling can only handle but so much of the pattern and for it to further complicate them based on its behavior and evolution makes matters worse, such as the flip-flopping that we continuously see in the medium to long range. Nature will do what it will do and no amount of wishing or hoping can change that. If the pattern turns for the better once we begin closing this month and get through the first bit of February; great. This means that all that we would have to worry about at that point are whether or not we get a storm system that times/tracks itself correctly to mingle with the cold and potentially produce nicely for some folks across the Southeast. If not and we still end up dealing with the stubbornness of this by the mid-late period of next month well that is just something we can't do anything about and would have to settle for it. I still like the idea of us getting into at least one major storm, likely in a scenario in which the pattern shifts into a more favorable setup for such (if we get can get it that is) and allow a widespread "major" snowstorm or wintry mix of some sort, though I hope that doesn't include a good bit of ice should it occur. I also would like to think that this pattern will break at some point before we get too far throughout the first quarter of the year but when that happens (if it does) remains in question. The point is, until we get rid of that pesky AK vortex and get the overall look of the Pacific and Atlantic to appear more promising (even something somewhat decent would be nice if nothing else), I would remain cautiously optimistic for the most part. Also, if you think about it (and this is going by calendrical standards of a winter season), it has been officially one month since winter started so we still technically have plenty of time. After all, history will tell you that even with a horrible Dec./Jan., it only takes a storm or two during Feb./Mar. to make an "epic" winter for the Southeast. We can only continue to have more patience from here on out and hopefully this pattern pulls a 180 in the latter."
Can't say it any better than that. It is what it is and we will just have to wait and see if we can pull off a February/March miracle here. There is always that outside chance...
Take care everyone and please be safe if you are one of the ones who were or about to be affected by the storms. Always remain on the safe side of things when dealing with potential threats for a tornado. Don't take chances and assume things in these sort of situations. Not good in the latter if you do end up with something nasty in your area.
Severe weather continues to be an absolute menace to our friends back west across MS, parts of TN and AL as a strong cold front pushes eastward carrying with it continuous threats for strong/severe thunderstorms with a few embedded tornadoes. Looking at some of the hodographs earlier, they were very scary looking and would suggest significant shear to aid in the spin ups. Despite it being the late night/early morning period, the line still holds strong and will threaten areas further east later on. Hopefully anyone over there has been keeping an eye on it.
Severe threat should diminish some as it gets closer to the Carolinas and GA, though I won't rule out that a few of any of the storms that do develop could get a bit of an attitude. The latest from SPC issued a slight risk for portions of AL and GA up to around the Southern Apps, which fits my idea of where the best area of storms could set up. Greatest threat appears to be strong gusty winds with any storm so we will need to watch that for some folks. There may be an isolated tornado or two to watch but I don't think anything like what is currently going on will be the case thankfully, as the trend has been to weaken the storms to a less aggressive level as it stands now.
From the looks of things throughout this week, there appears to be plenty of shower and storm chances to go around for much of us but ranges from about 40% to 70% so not everyone may get in on the rain. Not looking at a major washout nearly everyday for everyone but it could remain damp if the showers and storms materialize as indicated. We may be able to squeeze in at least two dry days though before we get through the rest of this week. As far as temperatures go, it appears that they may (keyword "may") finally get onto the warm side with a general range of upper 50s to even upper 60s at some point but I do think that we only stay like this for a while before cooling off again as we close out the month and get into February. Looking back at the previous runs of the modeling for the last few days of the previous week into the early part of this week, highs were advertised to be much warmer than what actually verified. In fact, for my area, I have went 5 days in a row below what was forecasted with 40s being the readings and yesterday getting stuck in the mid-upper 30s thanks to a CAD that settled into place. Just goes to show how influential those setups can be on our temperatures despite what you hear from the local mets or even from your NWS office in some instances. With clouds and rain consistently in place, it prevented the warmth but that now looks to finally rear its head into view for this week. We'll see how warm we really get with our highs but that is how it appears judging by the data. Of course, I am not solely forecasting from just the modeling, as it has been said many times that nothing is set in stone with them and that there are other things that can just as easily influence our temperatures so we may see cooler readings than expected.
Also, if you have not seen my post on Americanwx yet, I will repost on here about my thoughts on how things could turn out for the rest of the season:
"I think I speak for mostly everyone when I say that honestly it's anything goes at this point. Modeling can only handle but so much of the pattern and for it to further complicate them based on its behavior and evolution makes matters worse, such as the flip-flopping that we continuously see in the medium to long range. Nature will do what it will do and no amount of wishing or hoping can change that. If the pattern turns for the better once we begin closing this month and get through the first bit of February; great. This means that all that we would have to worry about at that point are whether or not we get a storm system that times/tracks itself correctly to mingle with the cold and potentially produce nicely for some folks across the Southeast. If not and we still end up dealing with the stubbornness of this by the mid-late period of next month well that is just something we can't do anything about and would have to settle for it. I still like the idea of us getting into at least one major storm, likely in a scenario in which the pattern shifts into a more favorable setup for such (if we get can get it that is) and allow a widespread "major" snowstorm or wintry mix of some sort, though I hope that doesn't include a good bit of ice should it occur. I also would like to think that this pattern will break at some point before we get too far throughout the first quarter of the year but when that happens (if it does) remains in question. The point is, until we get rid of that pesky AK vortex and get the overall look of the Pacific and Atlantic to appear more promising (even something somewhat decent would be nice if nothing else), I would remain cautiously optimistic for the most part. Also, if you think about it (and this is going by calendrical standards of a winter season), it has been officially one month since winter started so we still technically have plenty of time. After all, history will tell you that even with a horrible Dec./Jan., it only takes a storm or two during Feb./Mar. to make an "epic" winter for the Southeast. We can only continue to have more patience from here on out and hopefully this pattern pulls a 180 in the latter."
Can't say it any better than that. It is what it is and we will just have to wait and see if we can pull off a February/March miracle here. There is always that outside chance...
Take care everyone and please be safe if you are one of the ones who were or about to be affected by the storms. Always remain on the safe side of things when dealing with potential threats for a tornado. Don't take chances and assume things in these sort of situations. Not good in the latter if you do end up with something nasty in your area.
No comments:
Post a Comment