Yesterday caught some folks surprised as we managed to catch the tail end of a system that produced heavy rain and a few thunderstorms in the mix for parts of the Carolinas during the evening hours. A few reports of lightning and weak wind gusts were mentioned suggesting that these storms had a bit more of an attitude than anticipated, especially since the call was only for an isolated shower or two in spots. That has now pushed well east and are currently quiet. Temperatures managed to reach the 70s in many spots for highs and that looks to be the case again with places further south potentially reaching 80. Quite unusual for late November temperatures.
Rain and storm chances have been on the increase recently as models trend wetter with each run. Severe weather looks to be in store for the same areas again this go around. We currently have a system down in the Deep South that will aid in developing yet another low to affect parts of the Southeast today, tracking due northeast with an attending cold front. It looks to be a scenario similar to the previous Wednesday where shear is once again healthy-looking and at least modest instability. This calls for more threats of strong winds and a few tornadoes in the mix as well. Parameters support the continuation of storms for the overnight hours so we will need to keep watch on that. Timing may change to where the system slows and ends up arriving during the afternoon period on Wednesday for areas further east across the Carolinas and parts of GA which will further increase the convection due to additional available instability from daytime heating but I will call for the time frame to be the latter part of today and into early Wednesday before it pushes out. Clearing looks to be in store for the rest of tomorrow. However, as this front exits the region, I expect the winds to kick up again with some places potentially experiencing gusts greater than 30 mph outside the mountains. These will eventually die down and temperatures will once more dip back into the 30s to 40s for lows as cooler dry air filters behind the front thanks to an invading high pressure.
I've been paying close attention to the modeling and so far there appears to be a consensus suggesting a strong cut-off low developing for early next week (excluding the 0z Canadian). In fact, per the recent runs, there is potential for the NC mountains to get into some backside snow as the next front pushes in, bringing with it a significant cold airmass to settle across the Southeast. Meanwhile, it looks like another good chance of rain is in store for many outside the mountains, though there has been indication of some snow even back in parts of TN and even across extreme northern AL and GA but I'm not sold on that idea just yet. We'll see on that part. Highs on Monday of next week around here, for example, are forecasted to only be in the upper 40s, and it continues to appear quite chilly for at least the first week of December but it remains to be seen if this system is the one that brings our pattern change. This can easily be just a longer duration of a transient cold shot or may become warmer as we get closer but we will see if things go in our favor for an extended period of below average temperatures as we progress through this week and into early next week.
Rain and storm chances have been on the increase recently as models trend wetter with each run. Severe weather looks to be in store for the same areas again this go around. We currently have a system down in the Deep South that will aid in developing yet another low to affect parts of the Southeast today, tracking due northeast with an attending cold front. It looks to be a scenario similar to the previous Wednesday where shear is once again healthy-looking and at least modest instability. This calls for more threats of strong winds and a few tornadoes in the mix as well. Parameters support the continuation of storms for the overnight hours so we will need to keep watch on that. Timing may change to where the system slows and ends up arriving during the afternoon period on Wednesday for areas further east across the Carolinas and parts of GA which will further increase the convection due to additional available instability from daytime heating but I will call for the time frame to be the latter part of today and into early Wednesday before it pushes out. Clearing looks to be in store for the rest of tomorrow. However, as this front exits the region, I expect the winds to kick up again with some places potentially experiencing gusts greater than 30 mph outside the mountains. These will eventually die down and temperatures will once more dip back into the 30s to 40s for lows as cooler dry air filters behind the front thanks to an invading high pressure.
I've been paying close attention to the modeling and so far there appears to be a consensus suggesting a strong cut-off low developing for early next week (excluding the 0z Canadian). In fact, per the recent runs, there is potential for the NC mountains to get into some backside snow as the next front pushes in, bringing with it a significant cold airmass to settle across the Southeast. Meanwhile, it looks like another good chance of rain is in store for many outside the mountains, though there has been indication of some snow even back in parts of TN and even across extreme northern AL and GA but I'm not sold on that idea just yet. We'll see on that part. Highs on Monday of next week around here, for example, are forecasted to only be in the upper 40s, and it continues to appear quite chilly for at least the first week of December but it remains to be seen if this system is the one that brings our pattern change. This can easily be just a longer duration of a transient cold shot or may become warmer as we get closer but we will see if things go in our favor for an extended period of below average temperatures as we progress through this week and into early next week.
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