I have to say, Thanksgiving went better than I thought. Two fantastic dinners; one at the house and the other at my dad's mama's house. Got to spend some time with a few friends as well afterwards. Overall, great weather to end a great day with temperatures a tad warmer than expected. As usual, I worked on Black Friday but I work second shift so no issues with customers for the early morning. That looks to have stayed in control better than the previous year thank goodness (around here at least). Hopefully all of you had a fantastic Thanksgiving and everything went as planned. Today looks great for most of the Southeast with 60s for highs across much of the region under dry conditions. Enjoy it while you can because things are looking VERY interesting early next week (November 27-29).
It has been absolute madness with the modeling regarding this upcoming event; one of the toughest I've ever seen for them to agree on until recently. Models were losing it and now have brought it back. We have a shortwave trough that will traverse eastward with an attending cold front on Sunday. There is also an upper level system that will develop into a rather potent cut-off low (an upper level system that closes and detaches itself from the main flow), allowing it to slowly move through the Southeast. This intensifies and as it does so, it will create a substantial amount of moisture in addition to what is gathered from the Gulf. This moisture will surge northeastward across the Southeast with major heavy rainfall, which obviously will mean some flooding concerns in areas. With such a strong flow around this system, this will ultimately become a scenario where the low will create its own cold air by dynamical means, allowing it to become a cold core cut-off and cool the air significantly especially in areas underneath where moisture falls the heaviest. Under the influences of such, snow could be in the offing for the favorable areas. In fact, on the 0z NAM, it prints out a huge snow event for northwestern MS (up to nearly a foot in isolated locations) which this is assuming that particular part of the state is underneath intense banding. The snow potential also includes much of northern and central MS, northeastern half of AL, northwestern GA, TN and the NC mountains. There are some questions as to how far south and east this would reach though it looks like it could reach far enough south that Atlanta would get some flakes and maybe far enough east that places just east of the Apps may see the same but lighter. If that were the case, I would only expect flurries at best but it looks like rain is the word for folks across most of the Carolinas, southeastern half of AL, southern MS, and most of GA at the moment. What I really like about the modeling is that they all agree on the following: There is a cut-off system and it will affect the Southeast with snow and rain. What remains to be known is the timing and exact track of the system so that will have to be monitored. Still, this is one of the most interesting setups I have seen in quite a long while and can't wait until it rears its head on radar.
Here's the 0z GFS at 90 hrs. (Note I do not have a subscrip. to Accuwx. This is from someone else):
0z NAM Snowfall Total:
Upper level systems are very tricky in that they seem to have a mind of their own, as this saying goes: An upper level low is a forecaster's woe. Can't be any closer to the truth than that. We will see how this evolves but it has been a long while since we began to watch this threat show up in the mid to long range and it is finally looking like things are about to get exciting for all of us. How much rain and snow are we looking at I can't say. However, rest assured you will want to stay tuned to this as we still have all of today and tomorrow . Let the games begin...
It has been absolute madness with the modeling regarding this upcoming event; one of the toughest I've ever seen for them to agree on until recently. Models were losing it and now have brought it back. We have a shortwave trough that will traverse eastward with an attending cold front on Sunday. There is also an upper level system that will develop into a rather potent cut-off low (an upper level system that closes and detaches itself from the main flow), allowing it to slowly move through the Southeast. This intensifies and as it does so, it will create a substantial amount of moisture in addition to what is gathered from the Gulf. This moisture will surge northeastward across the Southeast with major heavy rainfall, which obviously will mean some flooding concerns in areas. With such a strong flow around this system, this will ultimately become a scenario where the low will create its own cold air by dynamical means, allowing it to become a cold core cut-off and cool the air significantly especially in areas underneath where moisture falls the heaviest. Under the influences of such, snow could be in the offing for the favorable areas. In fact, on the 0z NAM, it prints out a huge snow event for northwestern MS (up to nearly a foot in isolated locations) which this is assuming that particular part of the state is underneath intense banding. The snow potential also includes much of northern and central MS, northeastern half of AL, northwestern GA, TN and the NC mountains. There are some questions as to how far south and east this would reach though it looks like it could reach far enough south that Atlanta would get some flakes and maybe far enough east that places just east of the Apps may see the same but lighter. If that were the case, I would only expect flurries at best but it looks like rain is the word for folks across most of the Carolinas, southeastern half of AL, southern MS, and most of GA at the moment. What I really like about the modeling is that they all agree on the following: There is a cut-off system and it will affect the Southeast with snow and rain. What remains to be known is the timing and exact track of the system so that will have to be monitored. Still, this is one of the most interesting setups I have seen in quite a long while and can't wait until it rears its head on radar.
Here's the 0z GFS at 90 hrs. (Note I do not have a subscrip. to Accuwx. This is from someone else):
0z NAM Snowfall Total:
0z GFS, NAM, ECMWF 500mb chart (All showing the cut-off):
Upper level systems are very tricky in that they seem to have a mind of their own, as this saying goes: An upper level low is a forecaster's woe. Can't be any closer to the truth than that. We will see how this evolves but it has been a long while since we began to watch this threat show up in the mid to long range and it is finally looking like things are about to get exciting for all of us. How much rain and snow are we looking at I can't say. However, rest assured you will want to stay tuned to this as we still have all of today and tomorrow . Let the games begin...
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