Latest guidance suggests that our system may provide a little more action of strong to severe storms than previously expected. With atmospheric conditions favorable for continuous developing convection ahead of our current system, storms should be able to quickly materialize and intensify as they make their way eastward with good timing on their part, organizing as they do so. Temperatures ahead of the front appear to be in the 70s for the most part with a few locations getting close to 80. Instability looks to be a little stronger as well as SBCAPE values are indicated to be somewhere between 1000 and 1500 j/kg for areas across the Gulf Coast states (500 to 1000 for parts of the Carolinas). My thinking on shear still has not change as it is still looking quite healthy (bulk shear around 50 kt.) associated with a nice LLJ which will promote for the potential for strong gusty winds of at least 60 mph. Dewpoints should range mainly in the 60s, though some spots could reach 70°. Hail does not look to be a big issue (expecting small sized stones) but with any storms there could be slightly larger hailstones in the stronger thunderstorms containing updraft supportive for such. Convective mode is still appearing to be QLCS so my thinking has not changed on that, though there may be a few isolated discrete cells in certain areas. Tornadic threat is also in the cards but the threat level should be on the low side for that so no worries on that part. Other than that, prepare yourself if you happen to be one of the folks underneath a strong or severe thunderstorm. Keep an eye on the skies (and radar) throughout the day. That's all for now. TTYL.
Stay safe folks.
Max Temperatures:
Risk Potential:
Stay safe folks.
Max Temperatures:
Dewpoints:
SBCAPE:
Risk Potential:
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