Before I get into the details, I just want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving and may you stay safe and enjoy the day with your friends and family. Weather should be perfect across much of the Southeast so I expect no travel issues with rain or anything of the sort (except for the potential highway congestion).
Ever since the latter part of yesterday, models seem to either not anticipate that cut-off system to develop in our region or it's been weakened substantially (e.g. 0z ECMWF). It's been a long road of ups and downs with this potential scenario and right now it's looking more like a frontal passage with precipitation ahead of the cold front and possibly backside snow for the NC mountains and maybe Eastern TN. Still not sold on any of the solutions yet, though I'm now beginning to lean more toward a less action than previously thought. It still bears watching though, as it does suggest yet ANOTHER round of rain for some. This will likely be our last event for the month since next week is when we will fall into December. It continues to remain "cloudy" on how our pattern will behave but if you are to believe the 0z GFS, this will set the stage for the development of a potential -NAO blocking as it interacts with a nearby rossby wave that is located in the Hudson Bay area with increasing chances for a +PNA to be popped. Nothing set in stone but definitely something to keep watch on.
Ever since the latter part of yesterday, models seem to either not anticipate that cut-off system to develop in our region or it's been weakened substantially (e.g. 0z ECMWF). It's been a long road of ups and downs with this potential scenario and right now it's looking more like a frontal passage with precipitation ahead of the cold front and possibly backside snow for the NC mountains and maybe Eastern TN. Still not sold on any of the solutions yet, though I'm now beginning to lean more toward a less action than previously thought. It still bears watching though, as it does suggest yet ANOTHER round of rain for some. This will likely be our last event for the month since next week is when we will fall into December. It continues to remain "cloudy" on how our pattern will behave but if you are to believe the 0z GFS, this will set the stage for the development of a potential -NAO blocking as it interacts with a nearby rossby wave that is located in the Hudson Bay area with increasing chances for a +PNA to be popped. Nothing set in stone but definitely something to keep watch on.
No comments:
Post a Comment