You just can't beat a day like this in November. Currently in the 70s across most of the Southeast (even some 80s further south and back into places such as MS and southern GA. This is what I would expect if it were sometime in mid-Spring! There are currently some showers and a few thunderstorms in AL and MS, as well as parts of Western and Eastern TN. This will set the stage for what's to come later tonight and tomorrow. Get out and enjoy the warmth if you can because come tomorrow and beyond into Saturday, it's not going to be the best kind of weather for outdoor activities...
I am currently watching a system that's expected to affect parts of the region tonight and through the day Wednesday. It appears to be slowing a little more than previously thought so definitely by the afternoon/evening of tomorrow we may have to contend with some thunderstorm action. With an approaching cold front and a strong upper level jet moving into place, some of these storms could provide pretty gusty winds and possibly small hail as they approach the strong and severe levels. As mentioned earlier, with this event expected to take place during the afternoon, this means the system is well-timed and can take advantage of the warmth that will be in place to give the storms a good push to strengthen. It's also beginning to look likely that besides having high shear in place, instability is a little better as well but still not all THAT impressive. Regardless, with the impressive wind shear in place, it would not surprise me if a few of these cells developed into brief supercells, therefore putting some folks at a risk for a quick spin-up of a tornado. However, I am going with a linear (QLCS) convective mode so I don't expect your usual discrete cells to be the more common thing to show up on radar. We'll have to monitor the situation and see where we go from there.
Beyond tomorrow, temperatures take a nose dive back into the low-mid 50s with lows bottoming out in the low-mid 30s for some. Quite a change, isn't it and as you would have probably guessed next, we warm right back up by Sunday with upper 60s for highs and possibly low 70s again during the early part of next work week. It's a roller coaster ride folks so expect these fluctuations to continue for a while even as we get into Thanksgiving, which looks like it may be wet but don't hold me to that just yet. From there, it's still a question mark as to what happens to the pattern as we get into the first week of December. Do we remain warm or flip the cold switch on? Most of the other forecasters are saying nay and are looking more toward mid December (15-20). I still think that we may just rush the colder air in time for the early period but we'll see. Too many specifics to get into right now. Best to hold this off until the last few days of this month.
Take it easy folks and have a good day.
I am currently watching a system that's expected to affect parts of the region tonight and through the day Wednesday. It appears to be slowing a little more than previously thought so definitely by the afternoon/evening of tomorrow we may have to contend with some thunderstorm action. With an approaching cold front and a strong upper level jet moving into place, some of these storms could provide pretty gusty winds and possibly small hail as they approach the strong and severe levels. As mentioned earlier, with this event expected to take place during the afternoon, this means the system is well-timed and can take advantage of the warmth that will be in place to give the storms a good push to strengthen. It's also beginning to look likely that besides having high shear in place, instability is a little better as well but still not all THAT impressive. Regardless, with the impressive wind shear in place, it would not surprise me if a few of these cells developed into brief supercells, therefore putting some folks at a risk for a quick spin-up of a tornado. However, I am going with a linear (QLCS) convective mode so I don't expect your usual discrete cells to be the more common thing to show up on radar. We'll have to monitor the situation and see where we go from there.
Beyond tomorrow, temperatures take a nose dive back into the low-mid 50s with lows bottoming out in the low-mid 30s for some. Quite a change, isn't it and as you would have probably guessed next, we warm right back up by Sunday with upper 60s for highs and possibly low 70s again during the early part of next work week. It's a roller coaster ride folks so expect these fluctuations to continue for a while even as we get into Thanksgiving, which looks like it may be wet but don't hold me to that just yet. From there, it's still a question mark as to what happens to the pattern as we get into the first week of December. Do we remain warm or flip the cold switch on? Most of the other forecasters are saying nay and are looking more toward mid December (15-20). I still think that we may just rush the colder air in time for the early period but we'll see. Too many specifics to get into right now. Best to hold this off until the last few days of this month.
Take it easy folks and have a good day.
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