As of this post, it has been very cold outside. As a matter of fact, places across here in the piedmont of NC have reached the upper 20s for lows (currently 29 here in Gastonia). Lots of frost to be found along the ground and on the car/house rooftops. Thankfully if you're not a fan of the chill, temperatures should respond nicely by getting up into the 60s for highs with a further increase for the early part of next week where highs could range, once more, from the upper 60s to low 70s. We stay dry for the next few days before early next week. There appears to be another round of rain in store for the Southeast as a shortwave is expected to come through the Southeast, bringing with it some showers for folks. Could make for a wet afternoon for some but I actually expect it to progressively become deamplified as it shoots northeast due to decreasing dynamics but Tuesday should be the best day to feature the rain (around 50%) with the precipitation chances decreasing as we approach Wednesday. Things will clear out from here and our highs get knocked back a bit with an approaching cold front that also comes through, putting them down to the 60s again.
There is still uncertainty regarding the Thanksgiving week as some of the modeling suggest perhaps a later period where we shift to the colder side of things. Let me make one thing clear: NOTHING is set in stone yet. We may easily develop the blocking a little after Thanksgiving or it may not come until early December but I have seen some folks stick a fork in the upcoming winter due to the current warm temperatures that we're experiencing. Until we see what the pattern does for the next 2-4 weeks, we cannot simply assume that there will be no winter for the Southeast for the next few months. If you recall, last November featured warm temperatures before the major change near the end of the month and into the first week of December so we still have a ways to go. If we can get the Pacific to cooperate just enough and have ourselves a well-established West-based -NAO and -AO along with a weakening -PNA that becomes slightly positive, then we would be in business for sure in getting the cold to arrive in time for meteorological winter. Just stay away from that cliff folks. Keep your eyes peeled on the modeling and see if we trend colder for the latter part of this month. I'm still confident in my cold December/January outlook with a few opportunities for wintry shenanigans. February is iffy, IMO in that it could go either way but even if December were to average warm, it leaves the possibility for a colder January AND February so don't panic. Just enjoy the warmth that we have right now.
Have a good day.
There is still uncertainty regarding the Thanksgiving week as some of the modeling suggest perhaps a later period where we shift to the colder side of things. Let me make one thing clear: NOTHING is set in stone yet. We may easily develop the blocking a little after Thanksgiving or it may not come until early December but I have seen some folks stick a fork in the upcoming winter due to the current warm temperatures that we're experiencing. Until we see what the pattern does for the next 2-4 weeks, we cannot simply assume that there will be no winter for the Southeast for the next few months. If you recall, last November featured warm temperatures before the major change near the end of the month and into the first week of December so we still have a ways to go. If we can get the Pacific to cooperate just enough and have ourselves a well-established West-based -NAO and -AO along with a weakening -PNA that becomes slightly positive, then we would be in business for sure in getting the cold to arrive in time for meteorological winter. Just stay away from that cliff folks. Keep your eyes peeled on the modeling and see if we trend colder for the latter part of this month. I'm still confident in my cold December/January outlook with a few opportunities for wintry shenanigans. February is iffy, IMO in that it could go either way but even if December were to average warm, it leaves the possibility for a colder January AND February so don't panic. Just enjoy the warmth that we have right now.
Have a good day.
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