Saturday, April 9, 2011

Severe Weather Imminent for the Southeast This Afternoon

By the looks of how things have been evolving for the past several hours, the severe threat is definitely in order for a good chunk of us. The event will occur during some time in the afternoon. There seems to be a MCV feature in the works that should progress eastward for the afternoon hours. The combination of sufficient forcing with the instability from daytime heating, strong shear, the strengthening of the low level jet and high lapse rate values nearing 8°C/KM (the NAM in particular indicating this) will all be present and should suffice to develop some powerful severe cells. Already this tells me that we could experience, once more, strong wind gusts around 60+mph (which should be the top threat) and large hail approaching 2" in diameter with aid of strong updraft in extreme cases. I don't really see too much in the way of super-cellular development occurring but some folks just might get in on something tornadic in the areas supportive of an environment featuring strong low-level convergence/ impressive 0-6km bulk shear. Fun stuff ahead indeed and this time it will be happening during the day!

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