What a nice day it was on Saturday after experiencing dreary and chilly conditions on Friday with temperatures in the 70s for highs. The wedge held on longer than forecasted and thus caused some areas in the CAD to remain cloudy and cool but eventually things broke apart and warmed up quickly with sunny skies and breezes. Throughout today, we will begin to get things cooking with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, and I wouldn't be surprised if some folks in the Southeast hit 90. We will continue this until sometime during Tuesday where thunderstorms could develop for the region. The bigger focus, however, will be what's going on further west in the Arklatex region and parts of eastern OK through parts of the Gulf States and western/central TN during mid week...
For about the longest time now, the GFS, Euro, and recently the NAM are all showing what could be one of the nastiest setups for severe weather to occur so far this year with a very potent cold front and a rapidly deepening surface low. A trough from the west will, once more, swing through the Central US and into the Eastern section with itself and the upper low tilting negative as it does so. The combination of high instability, a strong LLJ, deep moist flow, very steep lapse rates, strong speed/directional shear, and of course other severe weather parameters will result in a major outbreak of severe storms firing during the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. This is a case where the situation is exceptionally dangerous and would be very wise to prepare early ahead of time. It is a deal where the threat for super cells is very likely and of course given the setup, it will be an event featuring some or most of these cells to be strong, long-track tornadoes. The indication by SREH, EHI, and looping hodographs supports this idea and therefore for anyone living from eastern OK to western TN and parts of the Gulf States should be on their guard. The way I see this, it will not be nearly as bad once that front pushes further east into eastern TN/GA/Carolinas but could still threaten the areas with heavy rain, very gusty winds, large hail, and some embedded super cells. Nonetheless, the pattern has been showing signs of a period where extremely active severe weather occurs and this week will be featuring just that (above all else so far this month). Keep an eye on the modeling because as I have stated on the Americanwx forum, one wrong move on its part in the whole process can make this system easily turn out to not be as bad but the chance of that is decreasing with every new set of data that keeps coming in but still possible. If you're one of the folks living in the areas that will be taking the brunt of this or know anyone out there who is a friend/family member, I recommend taking precaution immediately in case a strong tornado/powerful straight-line winds/very large hail does occur in your area. It's not to say that I am declaring a major tornado outbreak (not yet at least), but rather there is potential for such and thus would be something to start keeping in mind for the early part of this week. Better to be safe than sorry, they say.
For the sake of yourself, remember this: NEVER try to outrun a tornado or attempt to drive close to it for personal video/picture shots (like a few of these videos that I have seen showing such action by inexperienced folks). Let the experts take care of that for you like your local professional storm chasers. You can easily get lifted and thrown several yards in the distance or have large debris smash into you, which could result in a major injury or death and we do not want to see death totals rise due to such carelessness. STAY AT HOME or head to a neighbor's more sturdy home (if it is) if you live in a trailer or shelter/strongly-reinforced building. Caught on the road...find a ditch if there's one around and lie down. Never go underneath an overpass, as it's been proven countless times that it is not as safe as everyone thinks. Have all essentials, including a weather radio (a must have), water, non-perishable food, batteries for the radio, a charged cell phone (if you own one), etc. Do the usual and take cover the moment that the time comes to do so. I would like it if everyone is able to make it out of this just fine. Stay tuned for the ever-changing details of this event.
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