What an extreme day it has been for the folks in the Arklatex region and parts of Western TN and Northern MS. The system, as expected, has proven to be just as potent as ever during Tuesday with numerous tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings issued by the WFOs over there. Reports of strong, long-tracked tornadoes, very large hail (one which was indicated to have a max size of 5"), very heavy rainfall, frequent deadly lightning, and of course strong gusty winds up to 70 mph and beyond. Parameters were sky-high in some cases, such as the deep layer shear, CAPE, lift, etc; all indicating a significant severe weather threat for the areas mentioned. This has since shifted further eastward and now we look to seeing the rest of TN, northern and central AL, northern GA to be affected throughout today during the afternoon and evening hours before finally crossing over into the Carolinas overnight and early Thursday. I will summarize what is in store for the rest of the Southeast...
The trough involved will continue to progress eastward with the energy still holding strong as it rounds the base and actually strengthens some more pushing through the day today. The associated surface low continues to deepen and will traverse northeastward toward the OV with the cold front advancing east through the Gulf States. Latest guidance is suggesting a potentially slightly slower speed of the front, pushing the arrival for places such as the Carolinas until sometime between midnight and 4 am. The flow ahead of the front will continue to pump in warm, moist air sufficient for pre-frontal convection ahead, which of course will mean dewpoints will be able to reach at least 70 considering the strength of this surge of southerly flow. The interaction of the temperatures from the surface and aloft combined with the incoming powerful jet energy and attending trough will, once again, allow for highly favorable development of strong tornadoes with decent longevity. There is also indication of a second area of flow from the Atlantic, which was responsible for yesterday's convection across eastern SC/NC (and extending somewhat further west as well) aided by a disturbance near Savannah, SC. This airmass will also be pumping warm, moist flow into the Carolinas throughout the day Wednesday, so I can't rule out possible afternoon thunderstorms once more before the front arrives.
Moving on, today's parameters appear to be ominous, with extreme instability (values at least 3000), steep lapse rates, LI around -8 or more, EHI 1km +200 and 3km +300, just to name a few. Just as how some of the stronger storms were moving quickly back west, it also appears that will be the case across the TN Valley and the parts of the Gulf Coast States. Considering their location within the warm sector, the threat for these super cells to sustain a longer life and become even more powerful is legit and will need to be watched carefully. Eventually, the convective mode will shift to a more linear style (QLCS) as we progress through the night and into the early morning hours on Thursday, which very strong straight-line winds will be a primary threat for areas affected and large hail. However, given the nature and history of this storm system, some embedded super cells will still likely be present with the squall line, despite the reduction of a major tornadic outbreak further east. Winds could exceed 70 or 80 mph with potential 2 or 3 inch hail in this case.
This is possibly one of the strongest outbreaks I've ever seen, and the danger level of this situation is almost unbelievable. If you have stayed tuned to the live streams from local mets across the Southeast, then you are already well aware of what these storms are capable of producing. The one that caused 5 inch hail to fall is just one example of what I mean, and this most likely caused significant damage to vehicles, certain outdoor objects, and the environment itself. If you don't have a weather radio yet and can afford to spend some money for such, DO IT NOW! Likely a power outage will occur with the more significant storms and a weather radio at that point would help tremendously. I hope everyone has already taken necessary precautions because I promise you all that will be one event to remember for this year and would be glad to hear about other folk's experiences while under the effects of these powerful storms. Remember that you can always view your local weather station even without power if you own an iphone or other similar devices by going to their website (which was considered a fantastic idea by one met in particular from AR) and viewing their live coverage. I wish you all good luck if you happen to be in the high risk that was issued for the Day 1 convective outlook and that everything turns out better than originally thought. My prayers will be with you throughout the day. God bless and please keep in touch with your family and friends. Make sure that you know what to do if a tornado strikes you, and that goes for anyone who may happen to be at their job while this is occurring. A solid plan is a good one and can be an ultimate life saver.
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