A Break for a Few Days. ANOTHER Potential Severe Round Coming up for the Weekend

After being completely mentally exhausted for these past couple of days of severe weather watching, I finally managed to take a break and relax for the day.  The ULL kept things rather cool and cloudy for today reaching low to mid 60s for the most part while eastern sections of NC got in on some showers and thunderstorms due to the cold front that lingered for a part of the afternoon, which is now drifting off the East Coast.  High pressure will build back into the Southeast and keep things warm and dry again with temperatures ranging from low-mid 70s for most for the next three days before watching yet another front moving in from the west with a strong ULL tracking across the central states.  Unlike last night where lines of convection suddenly broke due to lack of instability (among other things), this go around might be a different story as the aid of that ULL will help enhance the main squall line and keep it intact after crossing GA, especially if we can pop another surface low in a favorable spot and potentially add on to more energy for the storms and also increase the chance for tornadic weather since directional shear would increase from the addition of southeasterly wind flow.  If the ULL cuts off correctly, the rain could really get enhanced for some folks who are needing it.  As of now, the tornado threat is minimal since winds appear to be dominantly out of the south during the time that the severe weather breaks out for Friday afternoon in the Mid-South but looks good for the early part of the day.  The severe threat translates eastward through the late evening and overnight hours of Friday into early Saturday.  A later shift in the timing of the whole system will further increase the severe risk since this would mean the convection breaks out during the afternoon for full effect of instability for places like the Carolinas (advantage of daytime vs. overnight/early morning) but right now, it appears wind damage and hail would be the main threats to watch for all areas expected to be threatened with such.  There's also the matter of how the pre-frontal trough positions itself and its timing, as well as other dynamics ahead of the front that can alter the expected outcome for the weekend.  Lots to watch for but the threat is legit and should not be taken lightly even at this point.

Behind that cold front, cooler temperatures will definitely make themselves noticeable as highs for some places may end up in the low 60s instead of 70s or 80s (how's that for a cool down) and becoming quite chilly at night with temperatures in the low-mid 40s (30s for the mountain folk).  Keep checking back for any updates and as always, take care.