Another nice day went by for Monday with temperatures in the 80s for highs with plenty of sunshine and a nice breeze. Despite a few storms that fired up across parts of the NC mountains/northern foothills and back into northern GA, as well as a strong line that pushed through western TN earlier yesterday, all else was clear and the convection had eventually diminished later through the day. Today should feature continuous warmth with possible afternoon thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong but these will be in a scattered variety and don't expect too much to occur at this point. That threat doesn't come in until the Wednesday-Thursday period...
The major severe weather threat continuous to grow across the Southeast as the negatively-tilting trough progresses eastward with very strong jet energy present (winds greater than or equal to 100 kts. at the mid and upper levels) underneath the base of the trough. Our advancing cold front in attendance with a deepening surface low will push through the Mid-South region, causing a great deal of a severe outbreak for MS, TN, AL, and even parts of GA through Wednesday afternoon/evening. With strong moist flow out ahead in the warm sector, combined with strong instability, impressive shear, correct timing of the front, and the jet, it is not out of the question that this screams potential for rapid rotation of storms with numerous super cells and possibly spawning strong/long-tracked tornadoes across the Southeast, particularly the TN Valley where I fear the most for those folks since that threat is looking very ominous for them. Alongside this threat is of course intense bowing causing widespread major wind damage and very large hail resulting from significantly favorable updraft with aid of steep lapse rates. However, I don't expect the major tornadic threat to be the case for places such as most of GA and the Carolinas as the cold front is expected to swing through the rest of the region for the Weds. night-early Thurs. period, at which the storms will more likely be in the form of a QLCS kind of deal. That threat should, as it appears now, diminish quickly once the front begins its departure from TN/AL. This still does not eliminate the threat for embedded super cells, which in some cases can become strong despite a linear look of convection and therefore I suggest that no one drops their guard just because it will be night time (think of the 4/4-4/5 event). The dynamics that we are dealing with here are the kind that can support severe storms through the night even after crossing the Appalachians, and this includes potential re-intensification east of there for the Carolinas sometime between midnight and 4am. I fear that this event will be one that is significantly dangerous and should be taken seriously. We may not be like the Plain States where tornadoes are common but this is our tornado season and any threat should be treated like a serious one. Some or most of the loss of lives/injuries from NC's tornado outbreak during the 4/16 event resulted from some folks not seeking shelter or putting themselves in danger of a tornado. I can't stress this enough that you need to be prepared. A pattern like the one we're in now is not going to let up so easily without threatening us in some sort of extremely dangerous fashion, and this event is a prime example of it. For the next few days, it's going to be a ride of a long and dangerous journey with Mother Nature. As always, take care and stay safe.
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