Model Waffling Continues. A Wet Start with Potentially A Snowy Finish on Next Event...?

We continue to have a great deal of uncertainty as we progress into the beginning of this week.  Forecasts have progressed from a crippling ice storm to major snow storm and now a major rain to snow event.  One reason that I believe we have seen such trends is because the models were beginning to realize the absence of the high up to the northeast, which will slide OTS and not provide the CAD signature that was progged earlier.  However, we now have to turn our attention over to the storm system and the ULL associated with it, which will ultimately determine who sees what based on track, strength, timing, and the features aloft. 

My thoughts at this point are that the low will track along the Gulf Coast and begin its turn through southern GA and onto the southern SC coast, heading due northeast. Throughout this period, I expect rain to spread over the Carolinas and parts of Georgia with snow beginning to develop on the backside as colder air is wrapped up into the system when the dynamic cooling kicks in.  Once the low begins to leave from the NC coast, we have an ULL that will be providing some folks with additional cooling and cause deformation banding to set up somewhere from N GA toward areas in WNC and onward.  Here in the CLT region, I believe that it will be a close call with a very sharp cutoff either just due west or east of CLT but will not guarantee our area to get into any heavy snow just yet.  I also think the track will end up being similar to the March 2009 event but perhaps a slightly more northward track this go around.  We'll see how it goes.  The conundrum with these ULLs are rather difficult to forecast and could take one for quite a spin when trying to pinpoint locations at a given time but we should have a better idea of how things unfold once we get into the later part of tomorrow with radar trends and the continuation of the nowcast models.

This is a very fluid situation we are dealing with here and chances are that whoever may be in the lucky spots now could very well not be so lucky later on and vice versa.  I still think the mountains and parts of the foothills in NC stand to see a very good chance of significant snow accumulations for their area, as well as back into eastern TN, extreme SE KY, and parts of VA.  Due east of the Apps., it's all about how that ULL behaves when it tracks through the Carolinas and of course the surface low as well.  Lots of tracking to do with this one and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out in the end.  There will be broken hearts and satisfied folks with this but at least it has been fun getting a REAL challenge for once to see how well we predict this storm.  Hope everyone (well mostly) gets what they want.  More later.