This will make it the third day today since the snow and ice fell in our area on Monday. Temperatures have been rather cold and keeping the melting process from progressing at a faster rate. I think as we finish today and a part of tomorrow, most if not all of the secondary roads should be safe to drive on. I had seven individuals, including the mail man, getting stuck in my neighborhood and all of them either went back home or took the very long way to get out. The horror of steep hills and ice...
Regarding next week, modeling continues to show a wet scenario for our region. However, there has also been the idea of possibly some ice to deal with if the setup is correct but so far, hardly anything is showing that play out for areas outside of the Appalachians but here's the breakdown of what I've come across so far:
GFS- Tries to build a bit of a CAD signature with a 1028mb high sitting in southern Quebec but decides to make our high retreat north and east from there as a 1000mb low goes through the OV (like the 0z and 6z run did). Therefore, the majority of the precipitation avoids us altogether and continues to stay west of the Apps. until early Wednesday and at that point, we're seeing light rain falling here.
CMC- Precipitation is able to spread into NC, but everyone east of the Apps. sees a cold rain while along and northeastward of the Apps. sees a bit of rain and ice before kicking over to all snow, especially once you get into VA's mountain range.
Euro- It's close to having something for our area, but quickly swipes the chance of wintry precipitation in the later frames. Around 96, we have a 1028mb high to our NE while our Gulf low is making a run for the coast around SC. By 120 however, that high to our north is not there all the sudden to provide a healthy CAD and the low is just off the coast of NC at 1000mb and rapidly deepening just like the previous storm. Consequently, temperatures at the surface and aloft are just a tad too warm to support anything else but a cold rain. If we had kept the look of the Euro at 96 but a bit colder with a stronger CAD, there would have been a better chance for some areas to get in on wintry precipitation. It's a close one on this run but still so far away.
That's the way things are shaping up for now. I would advise anyone to NOT write this off yet as we still have a few days for changes and if we trend toward the more wetter and icier side of things, then it's something to keep an eye on for sure. How bad would the ice be if it does trend that way I won't know for sure until we get into the latter part of the weekend but for now, this is looking like a mostly cold rain event with perhaps a bit of sleet and/or a touch of freezing rain to start. If you have any plans or heading into work for Mon/Tues, there should be no problems on the roads.
Have a good day.
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