Adios Winter Storm....Hola Ice and Cold.

After last week's shenanigans with model watching and weenieism, our storm panned out better, if not MUCH better than some folks expected.  I was surprised myself at some of the total accumulations I were getting, especially for the areas further southeast of Charlotte where upwards of 8 inches were reported and even along the coast, a few folks reported 3+ inches.  I'm very impressed by what this storm was capable of doing and as RUC and SREF kept hinting, it was going to be quite a snowy smack for parts of the SE.  Here was my predicted snow accumulation map:

Back into the areas of northern GA, AL, southern TN, and into AR, thundersnow occurred for those parts, dumping notable amounts of snow due to the increased snowfall rates occurring due to having some instability of the atmosphere and mesoscalic banding associated with strong UVVs (Upward Vertical Velocity or lift).  Some cities received a foot out of this, which already sets them well above average in snowfall for the season.  This was all thanks to the massive slug of moisture associated with our surface Gulf low that rapidly intensified as it carried the rain and snow well north and northeast.  Originally the threat of Gulf Convection due to thunderstorm development earlier that morning was looking rather unfortunate for the Carolinas, which would have disrupted the moisture transport and orientate most of the moisture to spread more west to east instead of southwest to northeast but thankfully the peak of the storms' bowing was reached and the convection relaxed to where it stayed close to the low.  Despite working with a powerfully-dynamic system, the airmass across NC was rather dry and any banding that arrived was immediately ate but was progressively saturating the air as it did so.  Earlier arrival was not expected by some forecasters, and thus snow arrived in Charlotte a little after 3am which briskly accumulated due to the combination of very cold ground temperatures and heavy precipitation which with high snow ratios dumped a quick 4 inches in 2.5 hours for some.  Later that morning, some folks were getting rather concerned about the event ending so quickly with the majority of the moisture staying just to our south, but the RUC, SREF, and WRF argued for afternoon development due to the change in moisture source from the Gulf and instead would be a direct result of the Atlantic Transfer while our surface low (weakened) began to curve toward the Carolina coasts.  Unfortunately, this also brought in a warm nose aloft into the very cold layers, causing the snow to melt and refreeze a bit as the moisture entered back into the cold again for sleet to occur later that afternoon and eventually, freezing rain took over but remained light which reduced the the threat of major damage from ice. Albeit this situation, even a tenth of an inch of ice is enough to cause traveling issues when combined with a few inches of snow on the road and secondary roads became awfully dangerous to drive on especially after some areas received heavy sleet during the evening.  This finally became freezing drizzle for the rest of the night and into the early morning hours.  My advice for today would be to not make any attempt to drive somewhere unless you KNOW you'll get there with no problems.

Overall, this was a terrific storm to monitor and make educated guess of even though it was looking rather bleak when we were 3 or 4 days out but just like our Christmas storm, it came back on some of the modeling withing 24 hours and again getting progressively stronger with each run.  The trend has always (or most of the time) been for moisture to be further north and a system being stronger than progged so far this season, as well as some of the other winters when dealing with a developing southern cyclone.  Unfortunately for the areas further north and northeast of Charlotte, not much snow was attained out of this but there were decent reports of 4 inches in spots so that is good news for those folks.

Speaking of winter, I believe we stand the chance to see one more accumulating winter event this month, whether that be in the form of snow, ice, or both. The pattern supports for such a chance and next mid week might be the time period for the threat. The NAO/AO briefly trends toward the neutral/positive phase but only for the time being around the 16th and beyond into next week (I remain a tad skeptical about it but will not rule out such) with the PNA inching closer and eventually becoming positive. Also if you haven't noticed, the Pacific seems to be awfully busy with a couple of major storm systems out there. Right now there is one that is closing in on the West Coast and that might be the one that affects us next week, but there's another one on its hills that could be it also (the way I see it). We'll have to keep a close eye on this one but temperatures are going to have to cooperate for this one.  Too far north and it will be too warm with rain.  Too far south and no one in northern NC (or all of the state for that matter) will see anything except for southern SC and GA, which I wouldn't mind seeing just so they'll get in on the fun for once.  Go down the middle and you'll end up with an ice storm on our hands and a potentially dangerous one at that with this system expected to be strong at this time with a strong CAD signature.  We'll see what plays out but as of now, I'm not going to focus on it much until Wednesday when the modeling starts to get a bit of a handle on it.  Too much mayhem with this event haha.  There's also indication of a massive intrusion of a very arctic airmass to settle into the US later this week, which would suggests temperatures as low to be in the low teens but I'm thinking we can easily see single digits with enough snowcover hanging around (possibly close to 0 for some)!

Well whatever it is you do, be it sledding, snowball fights (or iceball fights for this matter), or taking a walk around town, just be careful and enjoy the snow that we have here.  Make it a good day everyone!