What a fantastic set of model runs we had tonight. Most of the modeling came in with a nice wintry smack for parts of the SE, including areas back into AL and GA. With that said, here's how the models held up for next week...
GFS- One of the more "impressive-looking" models with the 0z. It had our low really ramping up in intensity as it slid eastward while temperatures out ahead of it are rather cold between hours 78 and 102. At 108, that low nears southern GA and spreads its precipitation across GA and SC, with NC getting onto the edge of the shield. Our 0 850 line drags from Myrtle Beach to southeastern TN while still remaining just south of NC and Upstate SC at 108. Here's where it gets tantalizing. From 114-126, that low turns NE a bit and slams much of the SE with heavy QPF totals (indications of over an inch in spots, including the CLT region). I still fear for the folks from central GA to central SC, as they end up getting a significant ice threat per sounding data. You are talking about a CRIPPLING ice storm with ice accumulations from .75-around an inch total, especially for central GA. Much bears watching for them and here as well, where temperatures throughout support snow but we barely hang on to this in a path from GSP to CLT to HKY. Totals predicted on the BUFKIT suggested at least a foot in the favored areas, including ours. Beyond 126, the low heads due north and slams the NE as usual. After this, man does it get downright cold, with temperatures taking a nose-dive on both the highs AND lows. In fact, after Sunday if the data is correct, we don't break 30 for the rest of next week and we could be dealing with temperatures in the single digits to possibly flirting with 0 as lows! Not set in stone of course, but prospect is looking high for such.
GGEM- Similar to GFS with, again, heavy snowfall across the SE and thankfully not as much ice for places further south near I-20. SC actually gets in on heavier snowfall amounts this time around, so that's good news for the folks down there who enjoy such due to having a colder profile. Going out into the later frames, that ice line nears the CLT region but doesn't quite get in and heads due east from there. We remain as all snow and are not on pins and needles of an ice threat. By 108, that frame proves exactly what I mean regarding the heavier snowfall for some areas (http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108.jpg). Here, we remain as all snow and are not on pins and needles of an ice threat. Just like GFS, the storm then heads north to hit the NE states (Deja vu anyone?).
Euro- This model handles the storm much differently than the other two. For starters, the amount of precipitation is not as significant across NC. In fact, it is actually from an area around the NC/SC border southward and back into TN is where the winners of the heavier snowfall could take place. QPF is practically non-existent around the NC/VA border and as you head down here to CLT, it goes up somewhat but I will estimate the QPF total would have to be somewhere between .5-.75 at this time. Temperatures aloft and at the surface support snow, so we're fine on that part. One bit of interesting info. that I gathered regarded GSP's sounding data, and it supports all snow with around an inch of QPF. Places in and near that area may end up getting more than us, and even back into TN the Euro shows some love for them as well, making them winners. The track of the low is another thing to notice, for it has it a bit further north than 12z, which brings in slightly warmer 850s and also that threat for ice but not as significant as it was on GFS for the same areas mentioned earlier. In addition with that track, the Euro decides to take it OTS instead of curving it up the coast like the other models did. This may or may not be a trend, but will keep a close eye on this one in particular.
UKMET- Not much to say about this model, but it appears to have had done better than its 12z run. Our low is essentially tracking like GFS and GGEM but without trekking along the coast (heads just off the northeastern coast but ends up bombing at 999mb). It's also similar to the Euro regarding the strength, sitting at 1005mb south of the MS and GA coastal borders and then weakens a bit to 1011mb from hour 96 to 120. Might as well say that it's similar to the Euro solution but just slightly different overall. We'll find out more once it gets closer to next week and see what changes from there (if any).
DGEX: Despite the usual inaccuracy with the DGEX, for once, it may be on to something regarding the 500mb setup at 18z. It makes as much as sense as what the GFS was doing for the past few runs and has that huge vortex move out of the way and keeping our southern vortex in tact. Obviously, the moisture looks to be over-performed, but still looks like it has the right idea of where the heaviest could set up. It ends up bringing over a foot of snow for most areas with a rather robust system that heads into the strong category. It appears absurd but if one were to take this in reality, the totals would be at least halved and the system being somewhat weaker. We'll see what the next run shows, which either keeps this or weakens it greatly (leaning more with the second scenario assuming its past behavior).
That about does it for now. I highly anticipate seeing the 12z runs after tonight's data. More later.
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