After waiting for UPS to successfully deliver my modem, which took them 3 attempts, I now have the internet again. I apologize for not putting updates or chatting with you folks who are on Jeff Crum's blog, but hey what can one do when you really can't afford to do nothing but have patience? Anyway...
Modeling seems to have been backing off from the major snowy hit that was depicted during last week and now shows a light event with the current trends. If I had to extrapolate the possibility of what could occur here, we would either see nothing, flurries, or a few inches of accumulation (Thinking around 2" as the most for the CLT region with a possible inch or 2 higher as you head further east in NC). If anyone has been paying attention to the RUC, it has been the most "aggressive" with our system, showing the moisture being displaced further north with a decent looking 5H feature occurring. Better than what the NAM and GFS were showing, although they are just barely beginning to trend wetter with the ensembles still depicting more QPF than their OPs. Still, this event bears watching and will continue to keep an eye on radar trends, WV imagery looping, and what the models (the short-range, especially the RUC) puts out. In the end though, it still appears to be down to a nowcast as always when trying to pin down on moisture and overall specifics. We still have around 36 hours left and things CAN change, whether it's small or large.
In all honesty, even if this event did not pan out to give us light accumulations, this winter overall has been one of the best I've been in a while. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we went back into our cold and wintry pattern from late February to near the beginning of mid march which I believe the GFS was hinting at around the 17th of this month earlier (haven't checked it that far out yet). We'll see what plays out with this upcoming event. The poof factor's there but so is the surprise. Mother Nature will let us know when the time comes.
Btw for those of you on Crum's chat, if you are reading this post and I'm not currently available, I will be back on later to talk to you all. Hopefully my internet connection sustains itself nicely like I was promised. Take care folks and have a terrific day.
No comments:
Post a Comment