Alright. We are now finally in the period to watch the radar trend with our first system to move in for Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning. At the moment, current radar shows am ample supply of precipitation breaking out across LA and southern AR with a long stretch going from parts of central and southern MS to west central GA. As we progress through the day, I expect the bulk of that precipitation to stay to our south. However, I cannot rule out that another area of precipitation reaches just far enough north to get parts of northern GA, Upstate SC and southern NC for the night time period and early morning. Take note that this would not be anything significant despite this, so I'm going with flurries or light snow showers at this time. Dusting would be a safe thing to say as far as accumulations though, but if it's a tad more aggressive, we could see some spots reach an inch, especially for the folks back in northern GA where they could see a couple of inches.
As of this post, I took a look at the RUC at hr. 12 and it has our precipitation continuing to break out in AR, LA, and MS. Where it goes from there remains the question, but as previously stated, we need to watch the radar trends. Could get a nice surprise; could not. It all depends on how our system behaves and where it goes. I recommend using the water vapor imagery, NOAA radar, and of course the nowcast models for this one.
Regarding our more interesting system next week, there are a few things that I will point out quickly. If you've seen the 0z GFS, that run had a major change with its solution, going from a GLC (Great Lakes Cutter) to a track heading for Cuba. At this time, I'm not too concerned with its solution, but I will say that this would be much better to look at than seeing it take our system way north. If the usual occurs, we will slowly see this trend more northward overtime so I will not throw it out completely but rather I am remaining cautious until I see that trend (if it does).
As for the GGEM, taking verbatim its solution shows quite a smack for parts of the SE signaling a serious threat for wintry precipitation between hours 120-144. The model cranks out plenty of moisture across MS, AL, and GA and then working across the Carolinas. Track of the low goes somewhere near Mobile, through southern MS and then turning NE toward the NC/SC coastal border at 1007mb. Quite impressive. The Euro has a similar solution to the GGEM, but somewhat weaker and surprising some folks back in ATL with some accumulating snowfall, while up here we are see around .25 QPF or less. The track is similar but further south once it gets near southern GA, taking our low OTS. By then at 168hrs., temperatures are really plummeting across much of the CONUS with that brutal arctic air settling in. Only places like FL or parts of CA and AZ escape from this.
Here's what I meant regarding GGEM's solution: http://i51.tinypic.com/2u95ndi.gif
So overall, I continue to watch that threat but much more closely than I did a couple of days ago. Models can and (as we've all seen) WILL change while trying to get a grasp on our developing pattern. Thanks to our dual blocking that we have going on and indications of the -NAO/-AO tanking, we are looking at a potentially record cold and snowy month (keyword potentially) for this winter. There are loads of things to monitor as it stands now, and as a few folks have stated, this month promises to keep the majority of us on the edge as we progress through this month. Winter is far from over at this point, and there's no telling when the next several storm systems will roll in but as always, I will keep you folks up to date the best I can whether it's by the chat I go onto or here. Remember: "Nothing is certain no matter what your resources are." That is one of the greatest thoughts any forecaster should have in the back of their mind.
Take care!
Very nice post Gaston!!
ReplyDelete