Afternoon everyone. I am back after much activity with Christmas shenanigans and such. I hope all of you had a wonderful holiday weekend and got what you wanted. Unfortunately we could not get everyone to stay chilly and dry for Christmas Day with the rain that came through but hopefully at least some of you still took the initiative to head out to see family and friends.
Things look to remain seasonable in terms of temperatures, though there could be a slight warm up later this week with highs nearing the low 60s. However, I expect things to remain dry for the most part with the exception of what may be another system of some sort toward Friday that could bring more showers but will only say a slight chance for that at this time (around 30%). If you are heading out today though, you may not want to wear a hat as winds have been whipping up quite strong with gusts greater than 30 mph and some of you may have weak branches/trees or other loose objects that could get blown over so be aware of that. With all the rain we have been getting recently, it would not surprise me if someone had a tree fall over due to the overly-saturated ground/wind combo.
As far as things look down the road, the period during the first week of January is really beginning to peak my interest as there seems to be some indication of a major change to the pattern going from what we have been going through for a good chunk of this month into a more chaotic situation. For one thing, the Euro (ECMWF) has been advertising a strong digging trough that enters the Eastern half of the U.S. during that week and along with it a potential for what could be our first winter storm as it shows a surface low (albeit weak) traveling up the East Coast, though its wintry solution is aimed more toward the Carolinas than anywhere else (GA at least sees a little something). In fact, there is indication of a cut-off of about 5 or 6 contours as it continues to strengthen, which would spell a major winter event in the areas favorable for seeing snow. Factor in the potential for the large western ridge (+PNA) and a NAO that declines toward the weak negative side with a declining AO and you have a window of opportunity for some fun and games for sure. As I recall in one of my previous posts, I mentioned that if we did get such to appear, that we could see something of interest take shape and this would fit the idea. Not to mention the fact that January is our best month anyway and so this favors things on the climatological side. The GFS hasn't really been following behind the Euro and instead remains more zonal with the pattern. I am not entirely sure if it will jump onboard with the Euro (or if the Euro loses its consistency and caves into the GFS's solutions) but one thing is for sure and that is the fact that it is definitely NOT SET IN STONE! The Canadian would support the Euro's solution as it had one in similar fashion but somewhat different and apparently the 12z Euro ensembles but only on the western ridge being pumped. As much as I like to see a pattern change that favors wintry fun for the East, I can't get too excited yet but our chances are increasing a good bit and someone is going to get hit hard with snow somewhere across the Southeast during the mid-period of meteorological winter if it plays out. Will it occur I can't say but it bears watching over the next several days. Stay tuned...
Snow total (inches):
Things look to remain seasonable in terms of temperatures, though there could be a slight warm up later this week with highs nearing the low 60s. However, I expect things to remain dry for the most part with the exception of what may be another system of some sort toward Friday that could bring more showers but will only say a slight chance for that at this time (around 30%). If you are heading out today though, you may not want to wear a hat as winds have been whipping up quite strong with gusts greater than 30 mph and some of you may have weak branches/trees or other loose objects that could get blown over so be aware of that. With all the rain we have been getting recently, it would not surprise me if someone had a tree fall over due to the overly-saturated ground/wind combo.
As far as things look down the road, the period during the first week of January is really beginning to peak my interest as there seems to be some indication of a major change to the pattern going from what we have been going through for a good chunk of this month into a more chaotic situation. For one thing, the Euro (ECMWF) has been advertising a strong digging trough that enters the Eastern half of the U.S. during that week and along with it a potential for what could be our first winter storm as it shows a surface low (albeit weak) traveling up the East Coast, though its wintry solution is aimed more toward the Carolinas than anywhere else (GA at least sees a little something). In fact, there is indication of a cut-off of about 5 or 6 contours as it continues to strengthen, which would spell a major winter event in the areas favorable for seeing snow. Factor in the potential for the large western ridge (+PNA) and a NAO that declines toward the weak negative side with a declining AO and you have a window of opportunity for some fun and games for sure. As I recall in one of my previous posts, I mentioned that if we did get such to appear, that we could see something of interest take shape and this would fit the idea. Not to mention the fact that January is our best month anyway and so this favors things on the climatological side. The GFS hasn't really been following behind the Euro and instead remains more zonal with the pattern. I am not entirely sure if it will jump onboard with the Euro (or if the Euro loses its consistency and caves into the GFS's solutions) but one thing is for sure and that is the fact that it is definitely NOT SET IN STONE! The Canadian would support the Euro's solution as it had one in similar fashion but somewhat different and apparently the 12z Euro ensembles but only on the western ridge being pumped. As much as I like to see a pattern change that favors wintry fun for the East, I can't get too excited yet but our chances are increasing a good bit and someone is going to get hit hard with snow somewhere across the Southeast during the mid-period of meteorological winter if it plays out. Will it occur I can't say but it bears watching over the next several days. Stay tuned...
Snow total (inches):
500mb chart:
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