Wednesday, December 28, 2011

0z Euro Still Advertises Cold But No Storm. A Fluke or the Beginning of a Trend?

Just thought I would do a quick late night update for those of you who missed the 0z runs.  The Euro held on to its deep trough solution but now has no storm to show.  However, that +PNA signature is still there and will allow the cold to settle into place for a while.  It's not a permanent pattern change but it is not a quick 1-2 day effect either so cold and dry would be the words for this scenario.  There is another piece of energy in the works according to the Euro that enters the Southeast but that does not look like anything to be concerned at the moment as it is sent OTS (out to sea).  The Canadian still shows a well-amped pattern in place at the end of its run so good news on that part.  Meanwhile the GFS took a good step in the right direction with less zonal flow but still did not show anything close to the 12z Euro as it digs the trough too late and has it east of where we would want it situated with a storm well offshore.  Other than that, the ridging was there in the West, which is a nice thing to see so at least it is attempting to depict something of similar fashion to the Euro.  The UKMET showed a frontal passage solution with a ridge out west but not as tall as we would like it.

Don't fret yet folks.  Unless this is the beginning of a new trend, the storm may show back up on the Euro and who knows the GFS may cave into the Euro at some point.  When you have a transition occurring with a particular pattern, sometimes you tend to get something that pops up in between and models simply cannot accurately pinpoint such, no matter how great their verification may be.  It will either be a roller coaster ride of showing/losing a storm, cold or no cold, etc.  However you want to think it, the madness is not over until we get closer to the predicted period of the potential event (Jan. 4-6).  More details to come later today after the 12z runs... 

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