Going to be another hot week as the ridge builds back over us once more, increasing our temperatures in the low-mid 90s range during the week. Only a slight chance of storms exist today over the Southeast with aid of the afternoon heating creating at least moderate instability with a moist boundary layer in place. It will be more toward the Friday-Sunday period that we see much better chances for storm with the next system approaching from the west with an attending cold front, lowering heights across the region. Today and through the weekend will have potential for strong/severe storms once more to pulse and affect areas with more large hail and damaging winds.
Looking into the tropics, currently there is a rather large area of storms firing and clustering around a developing low in the Caribbean. As of this post, the convection looks better organized and closer to the center than it was last night. Chances for this to become something more are looking slightly better (10%-20% better to be precise). With more development expected to occur later today, a tropical depression could be in the works sometime tonight or tomorrow. A moderate risk for further tropical development is in place (50% chance). Will have to keep an eye on this one to see where we go from here. If it holds and stays in the warm waters longer while still a depression, it may end up becoming a tropical storm in the near future. I will be doing updates regarding the tropics from now until the end of the season. I have also put out a hurricane forecast for this season (posted 2 days ago). Give it a read. Have a good day.
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/19671-my-2011-hurricane-forecast/
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