Light Snow Expected to Move In Tonight. Closely Watching Radar Trends...

Quick update on the unfolding event as we progress into the evening hours.  Precipitation continues to spread across parts of the Deep South and now moving into the TN Valley and far western sections of the SE.  Nashville has already been hit with a few inches back their way with northern MS getting in on the action.  This area of snow should continue to press eastward.

My thoughts are still the same as of now, and that is as our surface low begins to move into the SE states, a part of its energy will transfer over to the coastal low and cause the precipitation to basically "jump" over parts of the Carolinas and redevelop near and along the coastal areas.  I expect this area to receive the heaviest snow accumulations (3-5 with isolated 6 possible) and to our west along the Appalachians.  Here, a dusting to an inch is possible with 2" the further east and west you go from the Piedmont as shown on my map below:

Despite this idea being the most likely scenario to pan out, here's a bit of interesting information that I've seen on some of the charts:

I'm going to start by explaining what I've seen off of the 200-300mb charts.  Based on the data provided, we seem to be dealing with excellent upper level features that are developing at the moment.  This is all based on a nice jet streak that has taken place, which is something that the modeling failed to pick up for starters.  It is the result of why places like Nashville are seeing the thin areas of heavier precipitation extend further north than progged and what is causing this is simply the forcing that's going on.  With this jet streak, the longevity of the precipitation should be much longer as it progresses NE instead of allowing the banding to rapidly decay when it gets into the Carolinas.  All of this could be in accordance with what GSP said in their discussion about raising snow totals for areas along and south of I-85.  With the look of the ULD (Upper Level Divergence), the entrance for the precipitation will be correct for it to allow a bit of enhancement with our moisture to get into the CLT region and help intensify the surface low (not by a lot but some).

Also to help assist this is the development of a lee trough (which explains the increase of the ULD since it causes it) that is currently taking place ahead of our system.  Usually that can surprise a region with a bit more in snow accumulation than expected assuming everything had set up correctly.  Combine that with low level convergence (which helps with the increase of relative humidity and moisture, and thus more saturation of the air aka increased lift) and you end up with plenty of moisture to work with (which currently matches the precip across MS and AL).

Plenty of positives to look at when going in-depth of our current system.  Let me warn you all that I am in no way saying that we will see a large increase of snowfall.  The moisture can still just as easily decay by the time it begins to enter the Carolinas and you are left with flurries, a brief burst of snow or even nothing.   My explanation above is nothing more but a way to describe what would have to be happening to prevent the moisture from disappearing when the low gets closer to us.  All that we can do now is just keep watching radar and see how it unfolds.  The poof and surprise factors are there but only one will come out in the end.   Which will it be I can't say but I'm sure as usual, Ma Nature will decide the fate of all this.  Keep an eye on things for tonight is all I can really say.  Hope your evening goes well.  Here's to another wintry event!