By the way, from what I have gathered from the 0z GFS, track of the system looks to be just a tad further south. Our storm fails to phase with the northern stream and instead gets sheared and goes up the coast after its visit in NC. The WAA takes effect and kicks all of NC over to rain, and then CAA replaces it after the cold front passes through. The only positive was that our blocking is stronger but not by much, but that was the cause of the shearing of this system when it was pushed further SE into the Apps. By the time it passes the Apps, there is only a bit of moisture left and temperatures are not supportive for anything frozen since the cold air is chasing the moisture. Overall, it is a MUCH better look than 18z GFS with its solution of the storm track.
The Canadian came in nicely for most of the areas affected, but for areas such Upstate SC and the Southern Foothills of NC, there is less precipitation occurring. Nonetheless, it looks good for at least the majority of NC. Off to a good start with that run. UKMET was similar in its solution; both tracks from the modeling a bit further south than 0z GFS.
The one thing we need to watch from run to run is where the 5H is when it enters S. California. From there, it's a matter of whether or not we can get the northern stream to phase with it, and that will have implications down the road. I mentioned earlier on the chat how the 50/50 low is very important to look for as well. We already have the -NAO and if the PV cooperates, you can really get something good going but it would also be nice to have our PNA be positive instead of our current negative one. That causes ridging in the west instead of having a fast flat flow, resulting in allowing systems to dig further south.
Here's a link to learn about the 50/50 low if you like to read more about it: http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/weatherblog/15481/-----What-The-50-50-Low-Has-To-Do-With-Our-Snow-Storm-Potential---
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