After a busy 2 days of answering questions and watching trends, I finally got an update here haha. Anyway, we are now within 72hrs. of the upcoming event, and so far, we continue to see trending with most of the models toward the Euro's solution. GFS definitely took a step forward on the 18z run and even had our low bomb out near the coast, but it is still nowhere near what the Euro had put out. I know this all sounds exciting and optimistic for a snowy dump, but let me go ahead and say the following...
To start off, the system just got onshore, and while it is looking good right now, we still need to hope that this system phases correctly once it starts its trek toward the Deep South. I cannot stress that enough of how important that part is because you have 3 pieces of energy to work with. All of them MUST come together at the right place at the right time to get this low really cranking in strength. If not (whether it phases too early or too late) will completely turn things around in my thinking of our snow totals (which I'll get into in a moment).
Also, there has been some discussion about the system's spin and placement of the track, and these are also important to note. While the Euro may be depicting this low to be quite powerful, I am somewhat concerned about how tight this thing rotates. Too much rotation of the precipitation can and will hurt some folks further west when the system begins going along the coast. By that, I mean for us folks in places such as WNC, we can easily miss out on the majority of the snow while folks further east are getting hammered to death. As of now, I don't think this will be too much of an issue since I expect the precipitation shield to be quite expansive, but even then, I expect Eastern NC to be the big winner out of this. Regarding the track, I don't see much in the way of this thing being any further east or west than where it will most likely go right now. A slight shift further west will cause areas like the Piedmont of NC and Upstate SC to get walloped, as well as dumping some nice accumulations further west like Athens, GA or Bostic, NC. Further east will end up giving areas like the coast a chance for some moderate to possibly heavier accumulations on their end. Honestly, I think it can go both ways, but it will be a minor shift since we do have our 50/50 low and PNA ridge to keep this system in check regarding its movement.
As far as accumulations go, I'm going to go ahead and put out the "realistic" amounts that CLT and RDU could see. I'm going with a general 3-6 inches across our area including Upstate SC and I-40, with RDU getting 6-12 and possibly places further south and north of the area. Now if you're wondering what accumulations I would put if the Euro's extreme solution verified, here's how I see it. Areas in and around CLT would be seeing 8-12+ (extra inch or two) and areas in and around RDU seeing 12-20+. This is assuming that the axis of the heaviest moisture takes place along I-85 and then working eastward becoming wetter while the system deepens and heads NE toward the NC/VA coastal border.
Don't try to get worked up from the accumulations that I've put out, because I (as well as few others like Jeff Crum) caution you that this could still go POOF despite the declining chance of that occurring. Overall, I am impressed with the trending of some of the modeling and this boosts my confidence level more (65/35). The event looks to start sometime in the afternoon (night at the latest) and last through Sunday and possibly into early Monday.
That is it for now. I may have time to put up another update tomorrow. For now, just keep the following above in mind when looking at our system. Will we see a historic snowstorm, or will this be minor? Ma Nature will ultimately decide this...
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