MERRY (WHITE) CHRISTMAS!

After a stressful week of Christmas business and following a tough to forecast storm system, we finally reach the end of our chaotic road.  I hope all of you take your time today and here's to a wonderful Christmas Day from yours truly.

Now then...Regarding our event, it looks as though the westward trend that I spoke of earlier has occurred, and we are now looking at significant accumulations from this system.  Last I checked, our low was moving through LA with the northern energy diving down behind it.  This will allow a phase to occur in the correct area and really explode the system with moisture as it continues eastward and eventually up the coast.  With the strong dynamics in place, I would expect deformation banding to set up shop somewhere across the foothills/piedmont of NC, and that includes the CLT region as well.  There was also some muttering of possible thundersnow taking place in spots (especially from ATL to Western SC), so those areas could see higher totals easily. I would also not be surprised if stationary banding took place across NC.   Speaking of which, here is what I think will be the totals as of now:

 

For the mountains, I expect them to see the highest totals given that upslope snows take places along the western edge of the Appalachians, hence the plus I put there.  For most of NC, a general 4-8 can be expect but will not rule out the deformation banding that will be taking place NW of our system, which can make some areas receive that 6-10 in. that I mentioned.  This could also be said for the RAH area, where someone could see up to a foot of snow if they are sitting in the right spot.  As you head further south and east in the state, the totals lessen up due to the possibility of mixing issues with a bit of the WAA (warm air advection) getting involved, so that explains my 1-3 and 3-5 areas.

Keep in mind that with totals like these, the weight of the snow can easily cause tree branches (and consequently cause power lines and other property to be in danger) to snap and possibly weak roofs to collapse.  If you have to drive, BE EXTRA CAREFUL!  I can't stress this enough, especially if you live in the South longer than I have and with this kind of winter storm, the chances of wrecks increase substantially.

Very interesting of how the modeling has been acting regarding their ability to forecast this storm.  We go from storm to no storm and then storm again.  As proven, the Euro was onto this event the entire time since it was first depicted despite losing it mid-week.  Even as I type this, modeling continues to show this storm being slightly stronger than the previous run, so it is shaping up to be a White Christmas to remember and with that said, the accumulations that took place across NC back in 1947 may be in danger of being broken...This only proves my point earlier (for those of you who follows me on Jeff Crum's chat) why you shouldn't take modeling too seriously and this is the result of it haha.  Anyway, enjoy the day with family and friends, play in the snow, and above all, be thankful that God has blessed you with this possible once in a lifetime event.

MERRY CHRISTMAS! :)