After today's lovely conditions with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, we'll be heading to an action-packed day tomorrow with severe thunderstorm development for the southeast. An approaching front will bring in FROPA precipitation during the evening period. At this point, it appears that the dynamics are favorable for a few tornadoes to develop out of the supercells that do arise with our strong shear and increasing levels of instability. QLCS seem to be the dominant feature of the convective mode and will therefore support plenty of rotation to work with so we must watch this event carefully folks. I expect wind damage to definitely be a key thing with the severe cells as well as the chance for small to potentially moderate size hail for some.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Possible NWS Budget Cut by Congress for the Second Half of 2011...?
Figured I put this up for the sake of it for today. A very serious issue has arose regarding budgeting decisions of the NWS offices across the U.S. Here's the report regarding it:
WASHINGTON, Feb. 15, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As hurricane and tornado seasons approach, funding for the NWS will be nearly 30 percent less than the first half of 2011, if the Continuing Resolution proposed by the House majority is enacted. Congress's move will necessitate work furloughs and force rolling closures of Weather Warning Offices across the country. The effects will be felt in every aspect of daily life, including emergency management, television weather, and information used by our nation's citizens for transportation, commerce and agriculture.
The National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center, the Aviation Weather Center, the Tsunami Warning Centers, River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices located in communities across the nation are all victims of Congress's budget cut.
"When the budget blade drops on the NWS, it will be felt around the country," said NWSEO President Dan Sobien. "In the next hurricane, flood, tornado or wildfire, lives will be lost and people will ask what went wrong. Congress's cuts and the devastation to the wellbeing of our nation's citizens are dangerously wrong."
Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. "This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings," said Sobien.
The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane's path, could also be eliminated.
Recent advances in aviation weather forecasting have resulted in as much as a 50 percent reduction in weather related flight delays. Unfortunately, these improvements are also on the chopping block as the money to fund the programs will be discontinued.
"Decreased accuracy of forecasts is going to devastate every aspect of our daily lives. There will be a large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and the cost shipping food and other products," warns Sobien. "Most importantly, Congress is going set back our ability to save lives by decades."
CONTACT: Dan Sobien, President, +1-202-420-1043, president@nwseo.org
SOURCE National Weather Service Employees Organization
One can only hope that there is an alternative to prevent this decision from being made, but as we should all know, it is going to be rather hard-pressed for Congress to not do this. We will see. If you thought modeling was bad about certain patterns now, if this were to get passed it would make for awful accuracy on everything, not to mention the number of folks who would be in danger of having their life threatened without warning of an approaching tornado, severe storm, snowstorms, and yes even tropical systems (just to name a few). I really do not believe that this is something that we should have to deal with because we heavily rely on these guys from the offices during stressful weather events for updates. Just saying. Anyway, there's your story for the day to talk about. Honestly one has to wonder about the sense the Government has sometimes...Enjoy the day.
WASHINGTON, Feb. 15, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As hurricane and tornado seasons approach, funding for the NWS will be nearly 30 percent less than the first half of 2011, if the Continuing Resolution proposed by the House majority is enacted. Congress's move will necessitate work furloughs and force rolling closures of Weather Warning Offices across the country. The effects will be felt in every aspect of daily life, including emergency management, television weather, and information used by our nation's citizens for transportation, commerce and agriculture.
The National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center, the Aviation Weather Center, the Tsunami Warning Centers, River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices located in communities across the nation are all victims of Congress's budget cut.
"When the budget blade drops on the NWS, it will be felt around the country," said NWSEO President Dan Sobien. "In the next hurricane, flood, tornado or wildfire, lives will be lost and people will ask what went wrong. Congress's cuts and the devastation to the wellbeing of our nation's citizens are dangerously wrong."
Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. "This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings," said Sobien.
The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane's path, could also be eliminated.
Recent advances in aviation weather forecasting have resulted in as much as a 50 percent reduction in weather related flight delays. Unfortunately, these improvements are also on the chopping block as the money to fund the programs will be discontinued.
"Decreased accuracy of forecasts is going to devastate every aspect of our daily lives. There will be a large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and the cost shipping food and other products," warns Sobien. "Most importantly, Congress is going set back our ability to save lives by decades."
CONTACT: Dan Sobien, President, +1-202-420-1043, president@nwseo.org
SOURCE National Weather Service Employees Organization
One can only hope that there is an alternative to prevent this decision from being made, but as we should all know, it is going to be rather hard-pressed for Congress to not do this. We will see. If you thought modeling was bad about certain patterns now, if this were to get passed it would make for awful accuracy on everything, not to mention the number of folks who would be in danger of having their life threatened without warning of an approaching tornado, severe storm, snowstorms, and yes even tropical systems (just to name a few). I really do not believe that this is something that we should have to deal with because we heavily rely on these guys from the offices during stressful weather events for updates. Just saying. Anyway, there's your story for the day to talk about. Honestly one has to wonder about the sense the Government has sometimes...Enjoy the day.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
A Snowy Surprise Early This Morning. Warming Kicks In for the Weekend into Next Week
After about several hours of receiving nothing due to a mid level front that passed through at a rather bad time with downsloping occurring, squeezing out the moisture as it falls, I had nearly gave up on seeing something here until around 4 am when flurries finally reached the surface. From there, the snow had increased a good bit to a flizzard with a brief period of moderate snow falling. Beautiful stuff for sure. Accumulation ended up with a "heavy" dusting (if you will) making a nice coating on the grass and the tops of certain objects. The event only lasted to about 7am, which by then clouds were beginning to break, signifying the upcoming change and the melting of what snow was left on the surface. Interesting that Charlotte of all places was seeing rain with just a bit of flurries at the end.
We should continue to see clear conditions with temperatures getting into the upper 40s. By the weekend period, 50s to 60s will be the new highs and possibly getting close to the 70 degree mark for a part of next week! For those of you wanting warmth, you got it with the way our pattern is changing which is allowing what you would normally see in a La Nina winter in the SE states during February. My idea of a return to a colder and possibly wintry(?) pattern is still in the back of my mind near the end of this month and into a part of March, which by this point we may see another system or two develop before winter is all said and done. We'll see though. For now, enjoy the upcoming warmth and take it easy. Make it a good day everyone!
We should continue to see clear conditions with temperatures getting into the upper 40s. By the weekend period, 50s to 60s will be the new highs and possibly getting close to the 70 degree mark for a part of next week! For those of you wanting warmth, you got it with the way our pattern is changing which is allowing what you would normally see in a La Nina winter in the SE states during February. My idea of a return to a colder and possibly wintry(?) pattern is still in the back of my mind near the end of this month and into a part of March, which by this point we may see another system or two develop before winter is all said and done. We'll see though. For now, enjoy the upcoming warmth and take it easy. Make it a good day everyone!
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Light Snow Expected to Move In Tonight. Closely Watching Radar Trends...
Quick update on the unfolding event as we progress into the evening hours. Precipitation continues to spread across parts of the Deep South and now moving into the TN Valley and far western sections of the SE. Nashville has already been hit with a few inches back their way with northern MS getting in on the action. This area of snow should continue to press eastward.
My thoughts are still the same as of now, and that is as our surface low begins to move into the SE states, a part of its energy will transfer over to the coastal low and cause the precipitation to basically "jump" over parts of the Carolinas and redevelop near and along the coastal areas. I expect this area to receive the heaviest snow accumulations (3-5 with isolated 6 possible) and to our west along the Appalachians. Here, a dusting to an inch is possible with 2" the further east and west you go from the Piedmont as shown on my map below:
Despite this idea being the most likely scenario to pan out, here's a bit of interesting information that I've seen on some of the charts:
I'm going to start by explaining what I've seen off of the 200-300mb charts. Based on the data provided, we seem to be dealing with excellent upper level features that are developing at the moment. This is all based on a nice jet streak that has taken place, which is something that the modeling failed to pick up for starters. It is the result of why places like Nashville are seeing the thin areas of heavier precipitation extend further north than progged and what is causing this is simply the forcing that's going on. With this jet streak, the longevity of the precipitation should be much longer as it progresses NE instead of allowing the banding to rapidly decay when it gets into the Carolinas. All of this could be in accordance with what GSP said in their discussion about raising snow totals for areas along and south of I-85. With the look of the ULD (Upper Level Divergence), the entrance for the precipitation will be correct for it to allow a bit of enhancement with our moisture to get into the CLT region and help intensify the surface low (not by a lot but some).
Also to help assist this is the development of a lee trough (which explains the increase of the ULD since it causes it) that is currently taking place ahead of our system. Usually that can surprise a region with a bit more in snow accumulation than expected assuming everything had set up correctly. Combine that with low level convergence (which helps with the increase of relative humidity and moisture, and thus more saturation of the air aka increased lift) and you end up with plenty of moisture to work with (which currently matches the precip across MS and AL).
Plenty of positives to look at when going in-depth of our current system. Let me warn you all that I am in no way saying that we will see a large increase of snowfall. The moisture can still just as easily decay by the time it begins to enter the Carolinas and you are left with flurries, a brief burst of snow or even nothing. My explanation above is nothing more but a way to describe what would have to be happening to prevent the moisture from disappearing when the low gets closer to us. All that we can do now is just keep watching radar and see how it unfolds. The poof and surprise factors are there but only one will come out in the end. Which will it be I can't say but I'm sure as usual, Ma Nature will decide the fate of all this. Keep an eye on things for tonight is all I can really say. Hope your evening goes well. Here's to another wintry event!
My thoughts are still the same as of now, and that is as our surface low begins to move into the SE states, a part of its energy will transfer over to the coastal low and cause the precipitation to basically "jump" over parts of the Carolinas and redevelop near and along the coastal areas. I expect this area to receive the heaviest snow accumulations (3-5 with isolated 6 possible) and to our west along the Appalachians. Here, a dusting to an inch is possible with 2" the further east and west you go from the Piedmont as shown on my map below:
I'm going to start by explaining what I've seen off of the 200-300mb charts. Based on the data provided, we seem to be dealing with excellent upper level features that are developing at the moment. This is all based on a nice jet streak that has taken place, which is something that the modeling failed to pick up for starters. It is the result of why places like Nashville are seeing the thin areas of heavier precipitation extend further north than progged and what is causing this is simply the forcing that's going on. With this jet streak, the longevity of the precipitation should be much longer as it progresses NE instead of allowing the banding to rapidly decay when it gets into the Carolinas. All of this could be in accordance with what GSP said in their discussion about raising snow totals for areas along and south of I-85. With the look of the ULD (Upper Level Divergence), the entrance for the precipitation will be correct for it to allow a bit of enhancement with our moisture to get into the CLT region and help intensify the surface low (not by a lot but some).
Also to help assist this is the development of a lee trough (which explains the increase of the ULD since it causes it) that is currently taking place ahead of our system. Usually that can surprise a region with a bit more in snow accumulation than expected assuming everything had set up correctly. Combine that with low level convergence (which helps with the increase of relative humidity and moisture, and thus more saturation of the air aka increased lift) and you end up with plenty of moisture to work with (which currently matches the precip across MS and AL).
Plenty of positives to look at when going in-depth of our current system. Let me warn you all that I am in no way saying that we will see a large increase of snowfall. The moisture can still just as easily decay by the time it begins to enter the Carolinas and you are left with flurries, a brief burst of snow or even nothing. My explanation above is nothing more but a way to describe what would have to be happening to prevent the moisture from disappearing when the low gets closer to us. All that we can do now is just keep watching radar and see how it unfolds. The poof and surprise factors are there but only one will come out in the end. Which will it be I can't say but I'm sure as usual, Ma Nature will decide the fate of all this. Keep an eye on things for tonight is all I can really say. Hope your evening goes well. Here's to another wintry event!
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Back in the Ol' Saddle. Potential Light Snow Event on the Horizon
After waiting for UPS to successfully deliver my modem, which took them 3 attempts, I now have the internet again. I apologize for not putting updates or chatting with you folks who are on Jeff Crum's blog, but hey what can one do when you really can't afford to do nothing but have patience? Anyway...
Modeling seems to have been backing off from the major snowy hit that was depicted during last week and now shows a light event with the current trends. If I had to extrapolate the possibility of what could occur here, we would either see nothing, flurries, or a few inches of accumulation (Thinking around 2" as the most for the CLT region with a possible inch or 2 higher as you head further east in NC). If anyone has been paying attention to the RUC, it has been the most "aggressive" with our system, showing the moisture being displaced further north with a decent looking 5H feature occurring. Better than what the NAM and GFS were showing, although they are just barely beginning to trend wetter with the ensembles still depicting more QPF than their OPs. Still, this event bears watching and will continue to keep an eye on radar trends, WV imagery looping, and what the models (the short-range, especially the RUC) puts out. In the end though, it still appears to be down to a nowcast as always when trying to pin down on moisture and overall specifics. We still have around 36 hours left and things CAN change, whether it's small or large.
In all honesty, even if this event did not pan out to give us light accumulations, this winter overall has been one of the best I've been in a while. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we went back into our cold and wintry pattern from late February to near the beginning of mid march which I believe the GFS was hinting at around the 17th of this month earlier (haven't checked it that far out yet). We'll see what plays out with this upcoming event. The poof factor's there but so is the surprise. Mother Nature will let us know when the time comes.
Btw for those of you on Crum's chat, if you are reading this post and I'm not currently available, I will be back on later to talk to you all. Hopefully my internet connection sustains itself nicely like I was promised. Take care folks and have a terrific day.
Modeling seems to have been backing off from the major snowy hit that was depicted during last week and now shows a light event with the current trends. If I had to extrapolate the possibility of what could occur here, we would either see nothing, flurries, or a few inches of accumulation (Thinking around 2" as the most for the CLT region with a possible inch or 2 higher as you head further east in NC). If anyone has been paying attention to the RUC, it has been the most "aggressive" with our system, showing the moisture being displaced further north with a decent looking 5H feature occurring. Better than what the NAM and GFS were showing, although they are just barely beginning to trend wetter with the ensembles still depicting more QPF than their OPs. Still, this event bears watching and will continue to keep an eye on radar trends, WV imagery looping, and what the models (the short-range, especially the RUC) puts out. In the end though, it still appears to be down to a nowcast as always when trying to pin down on moisture and overall specifics. We still have around 36 hours left and things CAN change, whether it's small or large.
In all honesty, even if this event did not pan out to give us light accumulations, this winter overall has been one of the best I've been in a while. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we went back into our cold and wintry pattern from late February to near the beginning of mid march which I believe the GFS was hinting at around the 17th of this month earlier (haven't checked it that far out yet). We'll see what plays out with this upcoming event. The poof factor's there but so is the surprise. Mother Nature will let us know when the time comes.
Btw for those of you on Crum's chat, if you are reading this post and I'm not currently available, I will be back on later to talk to you all. Hopefully my internet connection sustains itself nicely like I was promised. Take care folks and have a terrific day.
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