Warm and Muggy for the Week. Chance of Thunderstorms Daily

It seems as though Spring decided to leave us and allow Summer to move in.  Temperatures yesterday were just awful, nearing 90 and above in spots with poor air quality.  Hazy, hot, and humid (or the Triple H as I like to call it) will be the words for the week with each day featuring a chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms; you're typical summer-like pattern.  Best chance looks to be late in the week around Thursday-Friday time frame, but even then the highest percentage is around 50%, so it's a deal or no deal kind of situation.  Any storms that develop today will definitely have the chance to become severe with strong winds, large hail, frequent CG lightning and an isolated tornado or two.  Already had reports of 3.25" hail in the Wilkesboro area in NC, so that's an example of what to look out for.  Stay safe and have a good day.

Rainy/Cooler Period for the First Half of the Week. Dry/Warm Second Half....

From radar and WV imagery this morning, our upper level system will swing through the Southeast today producing showers and some storms as they increase in coverage.  A few of these storms could get strong or severe in spots depending on who sees extended breaks in the clouds, which will aid in creating some instability.  Considering the lowering of the freezing level aloft, storms will have potential of producing hail under those that are stronger.  I will not be surprised if some folks stay in the low 60s for highs tomorrow in the cooler areas given the cold core that will be present with this system.  The ULL will stay in place for a few days before finally departing later this week, allowing us to dry out and warm back up into the 80s for highs.  I don't foresee any major severe weather threat this week so we should stay clear of that compared to previous weeks where there seemed to be a constant threat for such.

Have a good day.

Warm and Dry Today. Possible Active Tuesday

It's been a fantastic few days with plenty of warmth and nice weather after experiencing those colds low temperatures during late last week.  We should keep this up for throughout today though a few isolated storms is possible in spots.  80s to around 90 should be the high temperatures across the Southeast. 

As for what will be in store for tomorrow, the next system is expected to make a trip into the Southeast region during the day Tuesday.  A system in the Dakotas will depart from there and head through the OV into the eastern areas of the Southeast during the afternoon/evening hours.  A boundary will drape itself along the Savannah River Valley with plenty of instability, moisture, and decent shear aloft.  This could cause some strong to severe storms to fire off during the peak heating hours with a few isolated supercells in the more favorable areas.  I will make note that it is not the possible tornadic development to be most concerned with, but rather the gusty winds and damaging hail will be our main threats with any of these storms.  Initiation of convection also appears to be earlier than expected, starting across the NC mountains during the early part of the afternoon and spreading southeastward across the Carolinas and parts of GA.  Stay alert if your area happens to be underneath one of these storms throughout the day.  This activity should taper off Tuesday night and re-appear on Wednesday, though it will be less threatening since the ridge to our west will move closer and thus cause the dynamics present today to gradually weaken for tomorrow.

The Madness is Over

Whew!  What a consecutive active number of days we've had with the departing storm system.  As expected, things were extremely busy yesterday and even through a part of last night kept some of us on our toes as the front finally pushed into the last few areas of the Southeast.  I'm very thankful that the squall line forecasted to develop and push into the Carolinas was not as strong as many of us had figured.  Places such as Charlotte were spared of what could have been strong straight-line winds, large hail, and/or possibly a spin up of a tornado.  The bigger line of storms was located further south near the west central SC border and even then that had eventually broke up some.  There was a supercell however that developed back in the mountains near Hendersonville and traveled northeastward toward Morgantan, with a tornado confirmed on the ground but no major damage since it was weak.  As for some or most of us that night, it was your average strong thunderstorm with wind gusts 50-60mph, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and small hail.  Our friends further east are experiencing slightly stronger storms since the front has timed itself to push through there during the day today.  As of this post, there was a tornado warning issued for Tyrrell and Washington counties, NC.

We should definitely have all of this cleared by tonight with some nice cool temperatures for lows.  Weekend looking a-okay throughout the Southeast.  No major severe weather expected to occur.  Just plenty of sunshine and warmth.  Hoping anyone hit by any of the tornadoes or damaging storms from yesterday are doing alright.  We can do without this event for a very long time.  This outbreak will be one for the books and be known throughout the years as one of the worst outbreaks ever to occur.  Last I checked, death toll is over 200 and counting as new confirmations come in.  Very tragic situation.  Just imagine if the warnings sent out from the weather offices, mets, or weather radios were not as frequent or heck if they were not as advanced, we could lost more....a lot more but our current technology allows us to get the folks informed of a dangerous weather situation and that's why people like myself are here to give you the latest on anything that comes up.  God bless you all and enjoy the rest of the day.  It's time for my brain to take a vacation...

Dangerous Severe Weather Coming Up for the Southeast Part 2

What an extreme day it has been for the folks in the Arklatex region and parts of Western TN and Northern MS.  The system, as expected, has proven to be just as potent as ever during Tuesday with numerous tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings issued by the WFOs over there.  Reports of strong, long-tracked tornadoes, very large hail (one which was indicated to have a max size of 5"), very heavy rainfall, frequent deadly lightning, and of course strong gusty winds up to 70 mph and beyond.  Parameters were sky-high in some cases, such as the deep layer shear, CAPE, lift, etc; all indicating a significant severe weather threat for the areas mentioned.  This has since shifted further eastward and now we look to seeing the rest of TN, northern and central AL, northern GA to be affected throughout today during the afternoon and evening hours before finally crossing over into the Carolinas overnight and early Thursday.  I will summarize what is in store for the rest of the Southeast...

The trough involved will continue to progress eastward with the energy still holding strong as it rounds the base and actually strengthens some more pushing through the day today.  The associated surface low continues to deepen and will traverse northeastward toward the OV with the cold front advancing east through the Gulf States.  Latest guidance is suggesting a potentially slightly slower speed of the front, pushing the arrival for places such as the Carolinas until sometime between midnight and 4 am.  The flow ahead of the front will continue to pump in warm, moist air sufficient for pre-frontal convection ahead, which of course will mean dewpoints will be able to reach at least 70 considering the strength of this surge of southerly flow.  The interaction of the temperatures from the surface and aloft combined with the incoming powerful jet energy and attending trough will, once again, allow for highly favorable development of strong tornadoes with decent longevity.  There is also indication of a second area of flow from the Atlantic, which was responsible for yesterday's convection across eastern SC/NC (and extending somewhat further west as well) aided by a disturbance near Savannah, SC.  This airmass will also be pumping warm, moist flow into the Carolinas throughout the day Wednesday, so I can't rule out possible afternoon thunderstorms once more before the front arrives.

Moving on, today's parameters appear to be ominous, with extreme instability (values at least 3000), steep lapse rates, LI around -8 or more, EHI 1km +200 and 3km +300, just to name a few.  Just as how some of the stronger storms were moving quickly back west, it also appears that will be the case across the TN Valley and the parts of the Gulf Coast States. Considering their location within the warm sector, the threat for these super cells to sustain a longer life and become even more powerful is legit and will need to be watched carefully.  Eventually, the convective mode will shift to a more linear style (QLCS) as we progress through the night and into the early morning hours on Thursday, which very strong straight-line winds will be a primary threat for areas affected and large hail.  However, given the nature and history of this storm system, some embedded super cells will still likely be present with the squall line, despite the reduction of a major tornadic outbreak further east.  Winds could exceed 70 or 80 mph with potential 2 or 3 inch hail in this case.

This is possibly one of the strongest outbreaks I've ever seen, and the danger level of this situation is almost unbelievable.  If you have stayed tuned to the live streams from local mets across the Southeast, then you are already well aware of what these storms are capable of producing.  The one that caused 5 inch hail to fall is just one example of what I mean, and this most likely caused significant damage to vehicles, certain outdoor objects, and the environment itself.  If you don't have a weather radio yet and can afford to spend some money for such, DO IT NOW!  Likely a power outage will occur with the more significant storms and a weather radio at that point would help tremendously.  I hope everyone has already taken necessary precautions because I promise you all that will be one event to remember for this year and would be glad to hear about other folk's experiences while under the effects of these powerful storms.  Remember that you can always view your local weather station even without power if you own an iphone or other similar devices by going to their website (which was considered a fantastic idea by one met in particular from AR) and viewing their live coverage.  I wish you all good luck if you happen to be in the high risk that was issued for the Day 1 convective outlook and that everything turns out better than originally thought.  My prayers will be with you throughout the day.  God bless and please keep in touch with your family and friends.  Make sure that you know what to do if a tornado strikes you, and that goes for anyone who may happen to be at their job while this is occurring.  A solid plan is a good one and can be an ultimate life saver.