If you were up and at them this morning, man alive did it feel absolutely wonderful outside. Low humidity, low dewpoint, and for once lower temperatures for the morning with some spots getting down into the upper 50s for today! This afternoon should continue to feature such lovely conditions with highs getting into the mid 80s. Tomorrow will be the same and I think this will be the best day of this week with low to mid 80s for highs and even cooler temperatures for lows though just slightly.
Unfortunately the ridge will make its comeback and we will return to the usual summer conditions of Triple H days with afternoon storms. For now, enjoy the lovely weather that we're having for a brief while. We will be definitely missing it as modeling is indicating highs getting to the mid, maybe upper 90s for highs sometime next week.
Good day to you folks.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Storms on the Increase Today. Cooler Weather Getting Nearer. No Atlantic Tropical Troubles
We will continue to see the chance for afternoon and evening strong to severe storms similar to yesterday with large hail and some damaging winds. The storms this go around should move more quickly since the front will sweep across our area and push them eastward through the day. Right now it has not yet crossed the Carolinas but it will later today and this will help increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms instead of the usual pulse variety and give them motion, which also will keep the localized flooding threat down some but still can't rule out some folks who easily flood or have been flooded recently getting threatened again for today. This front will exit the region later in the evening and especially as we get into the overnight hours where we will dry out for tomorrow with highs getting into the low 90s.
Once this front passes through, cooler air is expected to make its visit for parts of the Southeast for the early part of this week, knocking highs back into the low-mid 80s with low humidity and dewpoint readings. It's going to feel very nice and with the synoptic setup of the pattern, we will also begin to increase the chance for several MCCs to affect the region with plenty of chances for showers and storms. This ought to help a lot of the folks who have recently missed out on the rains and relieve the drought some. I am looking forward to that particular period since the rain will further help keep temperatures down.
Our invest 94L system is now long gone from us as it was making its way into the Atlantic. The shear was just too much for it to survive so it never became anything more than a disturbance. There are no other systems that have popped since but remember that we are only getting started and the peak action does not begin until later in the season during September, where I expect the most tropical action to occur. No changes are planned to be made from my hurricane season forecast for a long while. Keep checking back here for any updates.
Take care and enjoy the day.
Once this front passes through, cooler air is expected to make its visit for parts of the Southeast for the early part of this week, knocking highs back into the low-mid 80s with low humidity and dewpoint readings. It's going to feel very nice and with the synoptic setup of the pattern, we will also begin to increase the chance for several MCCs to affect the region with plenty of chances for showers and storms. This ought to help a lot of the folks who have recently missed out on the rains and relieve the drought some. I am looking forward to that particular period since the rain will further help keep temperatures down.
Our invest 94L system is now long gone from us as it was making its way into the Atlantic. The shear was just too much for it to survive so it never became anything more than a disturbance. There are no other systems that have popped since but remember that we are only getting started and the peak action does not begin until later in the season during September, where I expect the most tropical action to occur. No changes are planned to be made from my hurricane season forecast for a long while. Keep checking back here for any updates.
Take care and enjoy the day.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Weekend on Tap for More Storm Chances, Early Next Week Still Looking Potentially Cooler
Setup for today looks similar to yesterday as we will, once more, have a favorable thermodynamic atmosphere in place for continued chances of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Low level moisture, steepening mid level lapse rates and moderate instability will all be in place for the Southeast. I expect the convection to initiate over the mountains (as it has been for a while now) and travel down toward the Piedmont during the mid afternoon period but do not expect them to move quickly, as they will also move in similar fashion by either moving very slow or becoming stationary, causing local flooding from excess rainfall in the stronger storms. Severe levels are also likely with any storm that pulses during peak heating so be careful. We have had reports of streets flooded, scattered power outages, and trees down from the storms yesterday and that may be the case for us, some folks possibly getting hit again and those who missed out last time may get it this go around.
Recent medium guidance is continuing its advertisement on a temporary cooler pattern to settle in for parts of the Southeast as a closed upper-level system is expected to trek eastward while crossing the Ontario region, causing upper-level troughing to take place near the East Coast. This will aid in shooting down cooler air into areas such as the Carolinas where temperatures could be knocked back into the low-mid 80s with low humidity, which will make it feel very nice for the next few days during the early part of next week. However, it's not set in stone so there is no telling whether or not modeling switches it up on us but will be glad to receive such a welcoming air mass. It will only last a few days though as the high pressure that is to our north heads off the coast, causing the return flow to catch us and return our temperatures to the 90s once more.
The tropics don't appear to be too interesting at the moment, though our disturbance is attempting to regain some of its strength as it finally begins its northward track through the Caribbean but still affected by the upper level winds that is shearing it some. Its winds have since increased a bit but still doesn't show a definite sign of significant tropical development. Here's the latest:
Be safe and as always, have a good day.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Decent Chance for Thunderstorms Today. A Potential Brief Break from the Heat
Today should feature slightly better chances for thunderstorms than yesterday as the thermodynamics become somewhat more favorable for convection across the western and central NC, SC, and even into parts of GA. With lee troughing occurring, plenty of low level moisture will be in place for much of these areas today. Considering the motion of these storms (almost stationary), anyone underneath the strong/severe storms could be in store for localized flooding and persistent storm damage from strong winds and/or large hail so keep that in mind.
Modeling has recently been indicating that we could enter a brief period of cooler temperatures as troughing has been progged to set up across the Eastern US next week, which would reduce the excessive heat and humidity that we have been experiencing for a long while now. Not set in stone of course but would be a refreshing thing to feel for once. We'll see....
Regarding the tropics, our disturbance just could not stay alive due to the unfavorable upper level winds that were in place, killing the system as it tried to enter into the Gulf. It's potential for further development was knocked back down into the low range after indication of said winds was made known. However, we will need to keep watch in the Caribbean region as there is an frontal boundary in place. This kind of setup is notoriously known for tropical development to occur in that area so keep an eye on things down there. We could have something else to track either during this weekend or next week.
Modeling has recently been indicating that we could enter a brief period of cooler temperatures as troughing has been progged to set up across the Eastern US next week, which would reduce the excessive heat and humidity that we have been experiencing for a long while now. Not set in stone of course but would be a refreshing thing to feel for once. We'll see....
Regarding the tropics, our disturbance just could not stay alive due to the unfavorable upper level winds that were in place, killing the system as it tried to enter into the Gulf. It's potential for further development was knocked back down into the low range after indication of said winds was made known. However, we will need to keep watch in the Caribbean region as there is an frontal boundary in place. This kind of setup is notoriously known for tropical development to occur in that area so keep an eye on things down there. We could have something else to track either during this weekend or next week.
Monday, June 6, 2011
Slight Chance of Storms Today. Better Chances Toward the Weekend. Also Potential Tropical Depression Later Today or Tomorrow
Going to be another hot week as the ridge builds back over us once more, increasing our temperatures in the low-mid 90s range during the week. Only a slight chance of storms exist today over the Southeast with aid of the afternoon heating creating at least moderate instability with a moist boundary layer in place. It will be more toward the Friday-Sunday period that we see much better chances for storm with the next system approaching from the west with an attending cold front, lowering heights across the region. Today and through the weekend will have potential for strong/severe storms once more to pulse and affect areas with more large hail and damaging winds.
Looking into the tropics, currently there is a rather large area of storms firing and clustering around a developing low in the Caribbean. As of this post, the convection looks better organized and closer to the center than it was last night. Chances for this to become something more are looking slightly better (10%-20% better to be precise). With more development expected to occur later today, a tropical depression could be in the works sometime tonight or tomorrow. A moderate risk for further tropical development is in place (50% chance). Will have to keep an eye on this one to see where we go from here. If it holds and stays in the warm waters longer while still a depression, it may end up becoming a tropical storm in the near future. I will be doing updates regarding the tropics from now until the end of the season. I have also put out a hurricane forecast for this season (posted 2 days ago). Give it a read. Have a good day.
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/19671-my-2011-hurricane-forecast/
Looking into the tropics, currently there is a rather large area of storms firing and clustering around a developing low in the Caribbean. As of this post, the convection looks better organized and closer to the center than it was last night. Chances for this to become something more are looking slightly better (10%-20% better to be precise). With more development expected to occur later today, a tropical depression could be in the works sometime tonight or tomorrow. A moderate risk for further tropical development is in place (50% chance). Will have to keep an eye on this one to see where we go from here. If it holds and stays in the warm waters longer while still a depression, it may end up becoming a tropical storm in the near future. I will be doing updates regarding the tropics from now until the end of the season. I have also put out a hurricane forecast for this season (posted 2 days ago). Give it a read. Have a good day.
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/19671-my-2011-hurricane-forecast/
Saturday, June 4, 2011
Nice and Warm Today. More Storm Chances Tomorrow.
What a refreshing day it was yesterday with highs only getting in the mid-upper 80s for most despite some folks getting to 90. Dewpoint was lower and every now and then a nice breeze would kick up. I couldn't have asked for a better June day than yesterday. That will change though as we get through next week with those highs going back into the 90s once more (thinking low to mid at best).
Next chance of precipitation will come in during the day Sunday as more convection is expected to develop and head southeastward in the northwest flow setup. This should push into NC during the afternoon hours, getting into SC and GA by the early evening, give or take a couple of hours. Deep layer shear and moderate to near strong instability with steep low level lapse rates and the presence of the shortwave trough will aid in creating some severe weather for folks which threatens areas affected by the strongest of storms with damaging winds and possibly large hail. Can't seem to catch a good long break from destructive storms, can we? Well...not for me at least. I'm currently listening to the hammering, drilling, and banging of material atop my house from the roofing crew taking down the old and battered shingles and replacing them with newer and stronger ones since the past powerful storms have caused some damage, all due to the large hail I had back in April (and more recently this past Thursday) and the numerous intense wind events. Enjoy the day!
Next chance of precipitation will come in during the day Sunday as more convection is expected to develop and head southeastward in the northwest flow setup. This should push into NC during the afternoon hours, getting into SC and GA by the early evening, give or take a couple of hours. Deep layer shear and moderate to near strong instability with steep low level lapse rates and the presence of the shortwave trough will aid in creating some severe weather for folks which threatens areas affected by the strongest of storms with damaging winds and possibly large hail. Can't seem to catch a good long break from destructive storms, can we? Well...not for me at least. I'm currently listening to the hammering, drilling, and banging of material atop my house from the roofing crew taking down the old and battered shingles and replacing them with newer and stronger ones since the past powerful storms have caused some damage, all due to the large hail I had back in April (and more recently this past Thursday) and the numerous intense wind events. Enjoy the day!
Friday, June 3, 2011
FINALLY a Break...
I apologize if I haven't been posting much on here for a while but I have been busy repairing a couple of computers that I have (both Windows XP) which took longer than I thought it would to finish. Anyway...
It's been quite a streak of hot weather that we've had across the Southeast for some time. I am will to bet this put a lot of thoughts into some folks regarding last summer's brutal heat where everyday it seemed to be above 90 degrees for a high. Yesterday also proved just how dangerous storms can be when able to feed off of the afternoon heating in this hot mess with relatively high dewpoints in place, which kicked off some very nasty severe storms. Here in Gaston county, we were hit with everything except a tornado (brief peak gust of 65mph, large hail that was around golf ball size, dangerously frequent CG lightning and torrential rainfall). Storms like such should be across parts of Western SC, parts of AL and most of GA for today as the better dynamics will be in place across those areas. I believe today we back off from that for once with mid to upper 80s in most spots and some areas reaching 90. Don't get too used to it though for we will be rebounding into the 90s once more next week with hardly a good chance of rain. Stay safe and have a good day.
It's been quite a streak of hot weather that we've had across the Southeast for some time. I am will to bet this put a lot of thoughts into some folks regarding last summer's brutal heat where everyday it seemed to be above 90 degrees for a high. Yesterday also proved just how dangerous storms can be when able to feed off of the afternoon heating in this hot mess with relatively high dewpoints in place, which kicked off some very nasty severe storms. Here in Gaston county, we were hit with everything except a tornado (brief peak gust of 65mph, large hail that was around golf ball size, dangerously frequent CG lightning and torrential rainfall). Storms like such should be across parts of Western SC, parts of AL and most of GA for today as the better dynamics will be in place across those areas. I believe today we back off from that for once with mid to upper 80s in most spots and some areas reaching 90. Don't get too used to it though for we will be rebounding into the 90s once more next week with hardly a good chance of rain. Stay safe and have a good day.
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