Tuesday, March 29, 2011

A Brief Break from the Rain. Then Back into the Wetness for the next 3 days.

After a few days of chilly and rainy/cloudy days, skies clear for the day with plenty of sun and it should stay that way for the rest of this Tuesday.  Highs will be from the mid 50s to lower 60s after hitting the low 30s last night with frosts and freezes scattered about.  Tonight the temperatures will drop back into the 40s with increasing cloud development, a sign of our next approaching storm system that will come in and bring us more rain to contend with including some potential thunderstorms but that will most likely (at this point) be further south and west of the Carolinas across MS, AL, GA, and parts of TN possibly.  Speaking of which, this chart here shows just how much rain and storms have been parading through those states.  Very incredible amounts of rainfall racking up for this month:

After tomorrow, the chances for rain will continue for a part of Thursday and even as we dive into Friday, as the last system will swing on by the Southeast and finally clear out to allow for a nice weekend to unfold.  For those of you who are not a fan of getting all of this rain, just hang in there.  We're almost done with it.

Enjoy the day.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

More Rain on the Way. Potential Early Morning Snow???

What a flip we have went from warm and dry to chilly and wet.  It is almost as though Spring took a vacation and allowed Winter to move back in for a while.  Highs were cooler than what most advertised (low-mid 40s instead of low 50s) and sustained a long period of moderate rainfall eventually becoming heavy as we pushed through the early night hour while heavier precipitation moved in from the west.  Several reports of storm damage occurred back southwest of the Carolinas where the main threat of severe weather was located, especially across portions of AL and GA.  Everything from frequent CC and CG lightning to tornadoes, it was quite an outbreak and had most of the mets over there staying on top of things.  Luckily here, we did not have to contend with that due to the wedge that built in limiting storm development.  We should be looking at continued chilly and cloudy conditions with a possible shower moving through the region in spots with precipitation moving in for later tonight.  Likely, we will eventually see a return to warmer and drier conditions at some point.

Now about the early snow potential, the NAM has been sort of consistent with showing a light snow event for portions of the NC, including here in the CLT region (especially its current 12z run).  Earl wx's site paints 2-4 and the BUFKIT shows nothing (which is likely as I see it now) but for places such as Hickory or Greensboro, 1.6" and 3.7" totals (respectively) are possible.  Will it happen?  I can't really say and it's difficult to get accumulating snow, let alone wintry precipitation, at this time of year but not impossible since it has snowed before in April.  I would be very surprised if the totals predicted by earl wx's site or the BUFKIT data for HKY and GSO verified.  Just wow at the data.

Stay warm and take it easy folks.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

A Short Term Change in the Pattern in Store. More Rain Chances Possible.

After experiencing several days of warm weather with a chance of rain every now and then, we are now about to enter a period where we can push those rain chances much higher than usual.  Our pattern is going to shift into a west based -NAO with a suppress track of systems coming through the southern half of the U.S. in an El Nino-ish fashion.  This parade of systems will continuously bring in several rounds of rain for the upcoming weekend and into early next week, which will (for once) provide places such as the Carolinas better chances for rain and also increase our totals for the month/year.  With this change, there will also be cooler temperatures settling in so instead of highs from the upper 70s to low 80s, it will be more like mid 50s to lower 60s.  Had this been January or February, we would most likely be talking about winter storm events occurring instead of rain and thunderstorms.  This will not be a lock in our overall pattern (the way it stands now) and would only last for 5 or 6 days before we get back to warmer temperatures, though this does not eliminate a night in the future during early April where we could see a potential frost or freeze take place.  It has happened before so any gardening you plan on doing I would hold off until around Easter (usually when we stop having frost/freeze issues).  Last night's frontal precipitation produced a good bit of activity and heavy rain but did not yield as much in amounts for the precipitation was in, out, and gone instead of slowly moving through.  Anyone under the stronger storms were hit with fast-moving ones that produced gusts of near 50 mph and pea-sized hail but the majority of this had only lasted between 5-10 minutes before departing so that explains why places like my area in Gastonia only received .10", not to mention the downsloping combined with it.  The majority of the dynamics was associated with a low pressure to our northwest crossing the OV producing a wide area of snow for the northern tier of the U.S. and that is why places such as southern KY and TN saw the more severe outbreak than the Southeast did.

Take care folks.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Summer-like Temperatures for Today. Supermoon Event for Tomorrow!

It's going to feel as though we completely skipped Spring and went directly into Summer with temperatures getting around the 80-degree mark, possibly breaking that in spots for the Southeast.    Great time for getting ice cream or just relaxing outside.  Plenty of sun should be the main event for today's weather.  Saturday will be similar but not as warm with mid to upper 70s for highs with clouds moving in for the later part of the day, as I expect showers to come through for Saturday night and a part of Sunday.  By then, our temperatures will crash into the 50s so a wet and cool-ish sort of day is coming up at the end of the weekend before we jump right back into the warm stuff for a few days.  A cold front passes by later next week and could have a bigger push of cooler air behind it thanks to the NAO dropping into the negative category, which will allow that air to reach us here in the Southeast (especially for the Carolinas and Tennessee).  A late freeze is possible during the time that the air sticks around so if you haven't already done so (gardeners), don't plant just yet until we get into a pattern that keeps things warm during the day and cool at night. 

Speaking of the upcoming weekend, the supermoon event will be taking place around moon rise and last for one hour according to NASA.  The moon will be 14% larger and 30% brighter than a normal full moon and is best seen during the hour that is rising since that will be the point where it is closest to the Earth (perigee).  Be sure to get a good view when you can!  It will be quite a spectacular thing to see indeed.  Enjoy the day everyone.    

Friday, March 11, 2011

Gorgeous Weekend Coming Up. Next Chance of Rain for Next Week

It appears the clouds hanged tough around here for today and kept us from getting into the upper 50s as expected, so conditions have been rather cool-ish and breezy throughout the day after getting off to a frosty start.  Tonight we will most likely drop into the low-mid 30s again before quickly warming up for tomorrow where highs could reach into the 70s for spots and especially on Sunday!  Beautiful stuff.

Our next chance of rain looks to be during early next week.  Another system will move through the Southeast bringing rain once more.  The GGEM and Euro are similar in the setup but the GGEM is more aggressive (as it was with our last event).  There is indication that this could be a cold rain in store for places like NC and TN as high pressure will build into the northeast and bring down cold air that will cause a wedge to be in store.  Right now for the Appalachians, it's not a certainty just yet, but this could yield another round of snow for those areas that were affected with the previous event at the highest elevations...that is, if the air is colder than what's advertised on the modeling.  It's not all that surprising to see them receive more snow during March, despite the warm-ups we have been witnessing recently.  Nonetheless, the chance is there and so if you have plans to go up there next week, just keep in mind that it could (keyword could) be snow flying at the high elevations.

Well that about sums it up for today.  Plan to ride a bike, jog, take a walk in the park, perhaps even work on something outdoors for the weekend?  Take the chance to do so because after all of the rain and storminess that has occurred here recently, it is about time that we got a break for worrying about getting caught off guard by Ma Nature.  Have a good weekend everyone!

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Extreme Soaking Event in Store for the Southeast. Potential Severe Weather in the Mix

Throughout today, sections of the southeast should see a tremendous rainfall event unfold as our system comes on through the region today.  Modeling has been suggesting quite a wallop (per the NAM/GFS/Canadian) of rain to occur.  Areas in the triple point region are likely to experience the heaviest of the precipitation, which would be areas along the Appalachians including extreme NW SC and NE GA.  This is truly a remarkable storm to watch as it is going to be one of those dynamically-driven type of events that can really crank out impressive rates of precipitation.  I'm going with a general 1-2 inches of rain for parts of the Carolinas with potentially 3+ totals as you get closer to the areas that will be underneath those heavier rain bands/line of strong to severe cells.  Tornadoes are possible as well given the setup, as it has been shown across LA and MS from earlier yesterday.  While the threat should not be as great as it was down in those areas, we still cannot rule out such a scenario.  It will not take much instability to cause to wind damage from powerful gusts of winds in excess of at least +50mph not to mention the chance for severe hail to occur (an inch or more in diameter).  Behind this system, there will be strong CAA which should make for some upslope snows to occur in the mountains of TN/NC which could see some accumulations of 6 inches (especially for the higher elevations), and even extreme northern GA though they would likely see flurries or light snow if lucky enough.  Keep in mind though that this will rapidly increase the threat for major flooding and would actually occur quicker due to the past heavy rain/severe weather events that we have experienced.  Just keep an eye out for signs of rising water if you live in a flood-prone area.  Other than that, that is all for now.  Watch the radar trends and stay safe if you are caught in a dangerous storm. 

Have a great day folks.  

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Severe Threat Exits. Heading for Seasonal Temperatures and Quieter Conditions

What an active day it was across the Southeast.  We had plenty of severe weather to work with for the afternoon and evening hours as the cold front pushed through associated with the persistent gusty winds out ahead, which made things worse in the occurrence of an thunderstorm.  Winds gusting up to 50+ were reported from numerous locations and even some moderate hail in the mix for a few areas.  Nonetheless, it was an exhausting experience staying on the top of the latest development of the threat and has now diminished and is well off into the Atlantic.  We should have clearing conditions as the hours progress as of this post.  Could be a bit of fog to deal with but quickly scoured.

Next chance of rain looks to be during the upcoming weekend with another possible threat for storminess but that remains to be uncertain at this point.  0z GFS hints this during March 7th on that Sunday so we'll see.  We could enter an active period for the month of March with plenty of precipitation chances and cooler weather.  Don't see anything wintry in the long range as of now.  We have been known to receive March snows out of nowhere but won't bet the farm on that this go around...not yet at least.  Nonetheless, we need the rain and this could prove helpful to rid the drought that has been increasing.  With Meteorological Winter closed off, we now look toward the Spring period to offer our rain chances.

Take care folks.